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NSE Intra-day chart (03 November 2023)
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Market Commentary 06 November 2023
Markets likely to get positive opening on firm global cues


Indian equity benchmarks extended gains for yet another session on Friday amid broad-based buying. The interest rate pause by the US Fed boosted sentiment globally, including in India. All sectors contributed to the move wherein Realty, Consumer Durables and Consumer Discretionary posted decent gains. Markets made a gap-up opening and stayed in green for whole day as traders took support with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stating that India will work closely with Sri Lanka to deepen their civilisational ties, with connectivity as a new focus area. Some support also came with United States (US) Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's statement that Washington is increasing its trade with countries like India, Vietnam and Mexico reducing its dependence on China. However, markets pared some of their early gains in late afternoon deals, as investors resorted to selective buying due to uncertainty over higher inflation levels, simmering West Asian conflict and its impact on the global economy. Some cautiousness also remained among traders with a survey showing that India's services sector activity grew at the slowest pace in the last seven months in October. The S&P Global India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 58.4 last month from September's 61.0. Adding to the pessimism, exchange data showed Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to be net sellers in the capital markets as they offloaded equities worth Rs 1,261.19 crore on Thursday. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 282.88 points or 0.44% to 64,363.78 and the CNX Nifty was up by 97.35 points or 0.51% to 19,230.60.


Magnifying previous session's gains, the US markets settled notably higher on Friday reflecting a positive reaction to a Labor Department report showing U.S. employment rose by less than expected in the month of October. The closely watched report said employment climbed by 150,000 jobs in October after jumping by a downwardly revised 297,000 jobs in September. Street had expected employment to increase by 180,000 jobs compared to the surge of 336,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. The Labor Department also said the unemployment rate crept up to 3.9 percent in October from 3.8 percent in September. The unemployment rate was expected to remain unchanged. The data has added to optimism the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates after the central bank left rates unchanged for the third time in four meetings earlier this week. A separate report released by the Institute for Supply Management showed a bigger than expected slowdown in the pace of growth in U.S. service sector activity in the month of October. The ISM said its services PMI fell to 51.8 in October from 53.6 in September, although a reading above 50 still indicates growth. Street had expected the index to edge down to 53.0. On the sectoral front, Airline stocks saw substantial strength on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Airline Index up by 4.9 percent. The rally by gold stocks came amid a modest increase by the price of the precious metal, with gold for December delivery inching up $5.70 to $1,999.20 an ounce.


Reversing previous session's gains, crude oil futures ended significantly lower on Friday with cut of over 2%. The sharp fall came in following the release of a closely watched Labor Department report showing weaker than expected job growth in the month of October. While the data added to optimism the Federal Reserve will refrain from future interest rate hikes, it also led to worries about the outlook for energy demand. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery declined $1.95 or 2.4 percent to settle at $80.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery fell $1.92 or 2.3 percent to settle at $84.89 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee settled marginally lower against dollar on Friday on account of buying in American currency by banks and importers. Traders remained cautious with exchange data showing that Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to be net sellers in the capital markets as they offloaded equities worth Rs 1,261.19 crore on Thursday. Some concern also came as a survey showed India's services sector activity grew at the slowest pace in the last seven months in October. The S&P Global India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 58.4 last month from September's 61.0. However, positive trend in local equity markets supported the rupee.  On the global front, dollar eased on Friday as traders wagered that the U.S. Federal Reserve was most likely done with rate increases, lifting risk sentiment. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.28 (Provisional), weaker by 6 paise from its previous close of 83.22 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7920.92 crore against gross selling of Rs 9109.08 crore, in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1911.86 crore with gross sales of Rs 815.25 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9.61 crore against gross selling of Rs 3.61 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Friday after data showed signs of slowing U.S. jobs growth and an uptick in unemployment, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve is done with its interest rate hiking campaign. Asian markets are trading in green on Monday after a soft monthly jobs report from the US helped ease bets that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates. Indian markets ended higher for second straight session on Friday as bond yields continued to ease on hopes that the rate hike cycle by global central banks is near its end. Today, start of the final week of Samvat 2079 will be in green tracking gains in overall global markets. Sentiments will get a boost as a survey by prominent economic think-tank NCAER showed an all-round improvement in business sentiments in the second quarter of the current fiscal. The Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose from 128 in the first quarter of the current fiscal to 140.7 in the second. Some support will come as the Reserve Bank of India said India's foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.579 billion to $586.111 billion in the week ended on October 27. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had dropped by $2.363 billion to $583.532 billion. Traders may take note of report that steps such as curbs on inbound shipments of certain goods, production linked incentive scheme and mandatory quality norms are helping the country reduce imports of non-essential products such as TV, tyres, wallpaper and AC gas compressors. According to an analysis of the commerce and industry ministry, import restrictions imposed on tyres helped cut the inbound shipments by 74 per cent to $74 million in 2022-23 from $276 million in 2019-20. Meanwhile, Union Minister for Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Textiles and Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal has said that Indian consumers are now demanding high quality goods and services and to ensure that, the Government is giving help and reasonable time to producers to adapt to new quality standards and ensure that India becomes recognized as a provider of good quality products. However, some cautiousness may come with report that Foreign Portfolio Investors' (FPIs) selling spree continues as they pulled out over Rs 3,400 crore from the Indian equity markets in the first three trading sessions of November on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Real estate industry stocks will be in focus with a private report that real estate developers and financial institutions have become slightly more optimistic about the growth potential in the realty sector for the next six months on festive demand and the country's economic growth. There will be some reaction in textile industry stocks as Apparel Export Promotion Council of India (AEPC) said that apparel exports are expected to reach $40 billion by 2030 on account of initiatives such as exploring new destinations and fostering strategic partnerships. Meanwhile, the shares of Cello World may list on bourses on November 6. In the primary market, four initial public offerings (IPOs) worth Rs 1,390 crore will be opening for subscription.


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