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NSE Intra-day chart (05 October 2023)
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Market Commentary 06 October 2023
Markets likely to get flat-to-positive start ahead of RBI policy outcome


Indian equity benchmarks saw a recovery after two days of fall and ended higher by over half percent on Thursday amid stability in global indices following ease in US Bond yields and a fall in crude oil prices from their recent highs. Markets made a gap-up opening and stayed in green for whole day, as traders took encouragement with Finance Secretary T V Somanathan's statement that India's retail inflation is likely to ease by December as seasonal factors become more favourable. Some support also came in with a private report that the much-awaited India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is set to be signed by both countries by month-end, with all outstanding issues having been resolved. However, markets trimmed some gains in morning deals, as provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth Rs 4,424.02 crore on October 4. Markets soon regained traction in late morning deals, as sentiments got up-beat with private survey showing that growth in India's dominant services industry accelerated in September as already robust demand strengthened. It also showed businesses were the most optimistic in over nine years. That bodes well for Asia's third-largest economy, which is expected to be the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year, defying a global slowdown trend. S&P Global's India services purchasing managers' index rose to 61.0 last month from 60.1 in August. The reading was above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for a 26th consecutive month. Meanwhile, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee has kick started its 3-day meeting and is expected to keep key rates on hold when it announces its decision on Friday. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 405.53 points or 0.62% to 65,631.57 and the CNX Nifty was up by 109.65 points or 0.56% to 19,545.75.


The US markets ended marginally lower on Thursday as traders remain worried about the outlook for interest rates ahead of the release of closely watched employment data on Friday. The Labor Department is expected to show employment increased by 170,000 jobs in September after climbing by 187,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent. However, selling pressure waned over the course of the session, with a continue pullback by treasuries inspiring some traders to pick up stocks at reduced levels. On the sectoral front, Biotechnology stocks showed a strong move to the upside over the course of the session, driving the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index up by 1.5 percent. The index continued to regain ground after ending Tuesday's session at an eleven-month closing low. Significant strength also emerged among brokerage stocks, as reflected by the 1.2 percent gain posted by the NYSE Securities Arca Broker/Dealer Index. Gold and natural gas stocks also saw notable strength on the day on the day, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index and the NYSE Arca Natural Gas Index climbing by 1.2 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively. On the economic data front, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing initial jobless claims inched slightly higher in the week ended September 30th. The report said initial jobless claims crept up to 207,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 205,000. Street had expected jobless claims to rise to 210,000 from the 204,000 originally reported for the previous week.


Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday, magnifying their previous session's losses, amid uncertainty about the outlook for demand and on disappointment over OPEC and their allies' decision to not increase the size of production cuts for now. Oil prices were also pressured by the release of weak U.S. data and news that Russia may lift its diesel ban in the coming days. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery fell $1.91 or about 2.3 percent to settle at $82.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery dropped $1.74 or about 2 percent to settle at $84.07 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Rupee settled lower against dollar on Thursday following a recovery in the American currency. Investors preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's rate decision. Traders ignored India's services sector data. India's services sector growth strengthened in the month of September, as a positive demand environment boosted intakes of new business and output volumes. As per the survey report, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose at 61.0 in September from 60.1 in August. On the global front, the British pound dipped against the U.S. dollar and the euro on Thursday after data showed the biggest slump in UK construction activity since 2020, while a Bank of England survey showed British firms see prices rising more slowly. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.26 (Provisional), weaker by 2 paisa from its previous close of 83.24 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10221.60 crore against gross selling of Rs 14178.34 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 704.37 crore with gross sales of Rs 1157.24 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10.70 crore against gross selling of Rs 12.77 crore.


The US markets ended in red on Thursday as investors looked toward key jobs data on Friday that could determine the next move for interest rates. Asian markets are trading mostly higher on Friday after U.S. Treasury yields eased from 16-year highs. Indian markets snapped two-day losing streak and ended on a positive note on Thursday amid a recovery in global markets and sharp fall in crude oil prices. Today, domestic equity indices are likely to get flat-to-positive start ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision. Market participants are widely expecting the central bank to maintain the status quo and keep the repo rate steady at 6.5 per cent, however, governor Shaktikanta Das' commentary and RBI's inflation and growth forecasts will be closely watched. Traders will be taking encouragement as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman reportedly said the inclusion of Indian bonds in JPMorgan's widely tracked emerging market debt index could bring $23 billion worth inflows into the country. Some support will come as the UAE and India will cooperate more closely in sustainable industrial development following a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on October 05 at Emirates Palace. Focusing on facilitating industrial investments, technology transfer and enabling the deployment of key technologies in industries, the MoU will benefit both countries through joint industrial and technological developments. Meanwhile, buoyed by strong gains in stock prices, the average assets under management (AUM) for the mutual fund (MF) industry increased 9 per cent during the three-month period ending September 2023. This marked the highest quarterly growth for the industry since September 2021. However, some cautiousness may come as provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed foreign institutional investors (FII) offloaded shares worth Rs 1,864.20 crore on October 5. Investors likely to remain on sidelines ahead of upcoming meeting of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council to review progress in anti-profiteering matters on October 07. As per a private report, the Council will be apprised of the performance report of the Competition Commission of India (CCI) for the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of the current financial year (2023-24), which revealed that not a single case had been resolved during the period. Tourism industry stocks will be in focus as the chief of Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) said the recovery in tourism in the Asia-Pacific region after the COVID-19 pandemic has been strong and robust and the numbers have reached about 80 per cent of 2019's figures.


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