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NSE Intra-day chart (04 July 2022)
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Market Commentary 05 July 2022
Benchmarks to get cautious start amid mixed Asian cues

 

Late buying helped Indian equity benchmarks to end near intraday high points with front line gauges recapturing their crucial 52,300 (Sensex) and 15,800 (Nifty) levels as traders opted to buy fundamentally strong but beaten down stocks after three days of continues drubbing. Markets made a pessimistic start on concern over continued FIIs selling. In June, FPIs sold equity worth Rs 50,145 crore through the stock market, taking the total FPI selling in CY 22 to Rs 2,23,944 crore. Some cautiousness also came in with a private report that about 10 states in India have detected a new sub-variant of Omicron BA.2.75, which may be alarming in nature. But, soon markets started paring losses as traders found some solace with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that GST collections in June witnessed a 56 per cent year-on-year rise to over Rs 1.44 lakh crore, as she exhorted tax officers to ensure the system is so transparent that even an iota of discretion is not there. The gross GST collection in June is the second-highest collection after April when it was about Rs 1.68 lakh crore. Furthermore, intense buying in last leg of trade mainly helped markets to not only enter into green terrain but end near intraday high levels as traders got support with report that India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong to deal with global challenges and the central government is committed to stick to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal. The government is taking steps to deal with the spiralling crude oil prices in the international market. Traders also got relief, as the commerce ministry is working to release the new five-year foreign trade policy (FTP) before September this year and Districts as Export Hubs scheme would be part of that document, which aims at promoting exports and job creation. Traders remain energized as India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.734 billion to $593.323 billion during the week that ended on June 24. According to the RBI's data, India's foreign currency assets, which are the biggest component of the forex reserves, rose $2.334 billion to $529.216 billion during the said week. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 326.84 points or 0.62% to 53,234.77 and the CNX Nifty was up by 83.30 points or 0.53% to 15,835.35.

 

The US markets were closed on Monday for the Independence Day holiday.

 

Indian rupee pared early losses and ended almost flat with negative bias against the US dollar on Monday. Initially, continued FIIs outflows weighted down on the domestic unit. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers in the capital market on Friday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 2,324.74 crore, as per exchange data. The greenback's strength against a basket of currencies also impacted the rupee sentiments. However, the local unit got some backing with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) statement that the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.734 billion to $593.323 billion for the week ended June 24 on the back of a surge in the core currency assets. Meanwhile, asserting that Indian currency has performed relatively better than others against dollar, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government is watchful and mindful of the impact of falling rupee on the country's imports. Finally, the rupee ended at 78.95 (provisional), weaker by 1 paisa from its previous close of 78.94 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4252.96 crore against gross selling of Rs 7110.35 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 79.13 crore against gross selling of Rs 185.28 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.69 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.77 crore.

 

The US markets remained closed on Monday on account of Independence Day. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday amid concerns about aggressive increases in COVID-era interest rates and their impact on economic growth. Indian markets rose on Monday as strength in financial and FMCG stocks aided a rebound on Dalal Street following three back-to-back sessions of losses. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start amid weak Asian cues. Cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs on Sunday as coronavirus clusters emerged, posing a new threat to the country's economic recovery under the government's strict zero-COVID policy. Investors will be eyeing India's PMI Services activity in June after it surged to highest level in 11 years in the month of May. Traders will be concerned as the data compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed that the country's joblessness rate rose to 7.8% in June from 7.12% in the previous month, as the rural unemployment level spiked 141 basis points (bps) to 8.03%. There will be some cautiousness with Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj's statement that the government intends to continue with the top GST slab of 28 per cent for luxury and sin goods, but is open to discuss narrowing down the three slabs of 5, 12 and 18 per cent into two. Some pessimism may come with the preliminary data released by the commerce ministry showing that India's merchandise trade deficit surged to a new high of $25.6 billion in June amid slowing demand for Indian exports and rising imports of gold, coal and crude oil. Exports grew 16.8 per cent year-on-year to $38 billion in June while imports jumped 51 per cent to $63.6 billion. Traders may take note of a private report that the Centre is committed to stick to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 percent despite strong global headwinds. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank said it has launched the next round of its order books, inventories and capacity utilisation survey (OBICUS) of manufacturing companies, results of which provide valuable inputs for monetary policy formulation. The 58th round of the OBICUS is for April - June 2022 period. Besides, the government will review the just introduced windfall tax on domestically produced crude oil and fuel exports every two weeks based on foreign currency rates and international oil prices, but no levels have been fixed for its recall. FMCG stocks will be in focus with report that fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales continued to be lower in June compared to May with urban sales witnessing a steeper decline than rural. There will be some reaction in hotel industry stocks with a private report that as tourism has started in full swing in the nation, Indian hotels are on a growth path as Mumbai continue to be the market leader.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

15,835.35

15,713.99

15,904.54

BSE Sensex

53,234.77

52,839.05

53,466.23

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation

859.93

126.15

123.51

129.36

ITC

398.81

291.50

286.44

294.94

Reliance Industries

193.17

2413.00

2,372.06

2,447.96

NTPC

175.26

141.50

139.84

142.69

Power Grid Corporation of India

151.33

211.00

206.65

213.75

 

  • HDFC Bank has received observation letter with no adverse observations from BSE and NSE for merger proposal with HDFC.
  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone handled the highest ever monthly cargo of 31.88 MMT in June 2022, implying a 12% year-on-year jump. 
  • NTPC's wholly owned subsidiary -- NTPC Renewable Energy has signed MoU with Government of Rajasthan for Development of 10 GW Ultra Mega Renewable Energy Power Park in Rajasthan. 
  • IndusInd Bank's deposits grew 13% to Rs 3,03,094 crore as of June 30, 2022, as compared to Rs 2,67,630 crore on a yearly basis.
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