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NSE Intra-day chart (02 June 2022)
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Market Commentary 03 June 2022
Markets likely to get gap-up opening amid firm global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks bounced back after a two-day fall and ended higher by over half percent on Thursday amid heavy buying in index heavyweight Reliance Industries and positive trends from European markets. Markets made negative start and traded volatile, as traders were concerned as the Ministry of Finance said the gross GST (Goods and Services Tax) revenue for the month of May crossed over Rs 1.40 lakh crore, a 16.6 per cent drop in comparison to April when GST collections were at a record high. Some concern came with a private report that even as the government is planning to put a leash on wasteful revenue spending to rein in fiscal deficit, it has decided against trimming the record budgetary capital expenditure target for FY23, betting big on its high multiplier effect to spur growth. The finance ministry has asked various infrastructure ministries to ensure they realise their capex goals and create durable assets. Besides, exchange data showed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were stood as net sellers in the capital market on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,930.16 crore. However, key gauges staged a one-way upmove in afternoon deals, as traders found some solace after state Bank of India (SBI) in a research report revised India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the financial year 2022-23 to 7.5 per cent, which is 0.20 per cent higher from its earlier projection. Sentiments remained up-beat after Icra Ratings in its report has said that manufacturing sector capital expenditure is on course for a leg-up with overwhelming responses to the government's production-linked incentives schemes, especially for lithium-ion battery, pharma and solar module segments. Some support also came after bank credit to NBFCs grew in double digit in FY22 with outstanding bank credit to them rising by 10.4 per cent to Rs 10.5 lakh crore on the back of improvement in overall economic activities and banks' renewed focus on the NBFC sector improvement in their balance sheets. Meanwhile, the Union Cabinet has approved a proposal to expand the mandate of Government e-Marketplace (GeM) by allowing procurement by cooperatives. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 436.94 points or 0.79% to 55,818.11 and the CNX Nifty was up by 105.25 points or 0.64% to 16,628.00.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday amid optimism that the Federal Reserve could alter its plans to aggressively raise interest rates in the light of some weak economic data. Some support came in as first-time claims for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined in the week ended May 28th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report showed initial jobless claims fell to 200,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level of 211,000. Street had expected jobless claims to come in unchanged compared to the 210,000 originally reported for the previous week. The Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average also edged down to 206,500, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 207,000. On the sectoral front, significant strength emerged among semiconductor stocks, as reflected by the 3.6 percent surge by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The index ended the session at its best closing level in almost a month. Gold stocks showed a substantial move to the upside on the day, resulting in a 4.9 percent spike by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index Retail stocks also moved sharply higher over the course of the session, driving the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index up by 3 percent to a nearly one-month closing high. Chemical, networking, computer hardware and brokerage stocks also showed strong moves to the upside, reflecting the broad based buying interest that emerged on Markets.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday, extending their previous session's gains, as the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report showing a much bigger than expected weekly decrease in US crude oil inventories. The report showed crude oil inventories slumped by 5.1 million barrels in the week ended May 27th compared to street estimates for a decrease of about 1.4 million barrels. The EIA also said gasoline inventories dipped by 0.7 million barrels last week, while distillate fuel inventories edged down by 0.5 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery rose $1.61 or 1.4 percent to settle at $116.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for August delivery gained $1.32 or 1.14 percent to settle at $117.61 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee concluded substantially weaker against dollar on Thursday, on account of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks. Traders were concerned as the Ministry of Finance said the gross GST (Goods and Services Tax) revenue for the month of May crossed over Rs 1.40 lakh crore, a 16.6 per cent drop in comparison to April when GST collections were at a record high. Some concern also came with a private report that even as the government is planning to put a leash on wasteful revenue spending to rein in fiscal deficit, it has decided against trimming the record budgetary capital expenditure target for FY23, betting big on its high multiplier effect to spur growth. On the global front, euro and the yen rose on Thursday, reversing some recent losses against the U.S. dollar after Swiss inflation soared to its highest in 14-years. Finally, the rupee ended at 77.60 (Provisional), weaker by 10 paise from its previous close of 77.50 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7418.02 crore against gross selling of Rs 8140.41 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 264.41 crore with gross sales of Rs 390.70 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 19.05 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.69 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday led by Tesla, Nvidia and other megacap growth stocks, ahead of a key jobs report due on Friday. Asian markets are trading in green on Friday following a strong session in the US overnight. Indian markets managed to end a volatile session in the green on Thursday - a second back-to-back rise - powered by oil & gas and IT shares. Today, markets are likely to make gap-up opening following a relief rally in the US markets overnight. Sentiments will get boost as SBI Research projected the Indian economy to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2022-23, an upward revision of 20 basis points from its earlier estimate. It said given the high inflation and the subsequent upcoming rate hikes, we believe that real GDP will incrementally increase by Rs 11.1 lakh crore in FY23. Traders will be taking encouragement as the commerce ministry said India's merchandise exports rose by 15.46 per cent to $37.29 billion in May on account of healthy performance by sectors like petroleum products, electronic goods and chemicals, even as the trade deficit widened to $23.33 billion during the month. Imports during the month too grew by 56.14 per cent to $60.62 billion. Traders may take note of Food Secretary Sudhanshu Pandey's statement that retail prices of wheat, rice, sugar and edible oils are showing a declining trend after the measures taken by the government, including curbs on exports of wheat and sugar. Meanwhile, Capital markets regulator Sebi has streamlined the process of providing its approval to the proposed change in control of a portfolio manager. The new guidelines will be applicable from June 15. Under this, the regulator has specified the procedure that needs to be followed by portfolio managers in matters which involve scheme(s) of arrangement which needs sanction of the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). NBFCs will be in focus with Care Ratings' report that bank credit to NBFCs grew in double digit in FY22 with outstanding bank credit to them rising by 10.4 per cent to Rs 10.5 lakh crore on the back of improvement in overall economic activities and banks' renewed focus on the NBFC sector following improvement in their balance sheets. There will be some reaction in oil industry stocks after the OPEC+ announced it will increase oil production by 648,000 barrels per day in both July and August, steering away from its previous levels of around 4,00,000 only. Besides, Aether Industries will debut on the bourses today. The company had raised Rs 808 crore from its IPO, which was subscribed 6.3 times, with strong demand from institutional investors. The issue price is fixed at Rs 642. Investors will be looking ahead to the Services PMI data to be out later in the day.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

16,628.00

16,498.56

16,701.91

BSE Sensex

55,818.11

55,338.18

56,094.99

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Oil & Gas corporation of India

254.29

152.45

 148.00

 154.90

NTPC

176.47

159.00

 155.74

 160.79

Coal India

176.46

197.60

 194.86

 199.76

ITC

142.40

273.00

 269.09

 275.69

Tata Motors

127.42

439.85

 435.14

 445.09

 

  • Cipla has added capacity of captive renewable energy power plant in Maharashtra & Karnataka. 
  • SBI is planning to focus on digital agenda and forge partnerships with fintech firms and NBFCs to increase the penetration and reach of the bank. 
  • Nestle India is looking to tap opportunities in new categories such as healthy ageing, plant-based nutrition and healthy snacking to boost growth in the country. 
  • Tech Mahindra has entered into a partnership with Avarn Security, a leading security group in Nordics region.
News Analysis