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NSE Intra-day chart (02 May 2024)
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Market Commentary 03 May 2024
Markets likely to get optimistic start on firm global cues

Indian equity benchmarks managed to end higher in the volatile session on Thursday led by gains in Utilities, PSU and Power stocks. Additionally, a decline in oil prices and robust domestic auto sales figures supported sentiments. After opening in red, frontline indices soon reversed losses to trade higher and consolidated during the day as traders took support with data showing that India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections in gross terms hit a record high in April 2024 at Rs 2.1 lakh crore. The government had collected Rs 1.87 lakh crore as GST in the same period last year. Traders took a note of a private survey showing that growth in India's manufacturing sector slowed marginally in April but remained robust thanks to strong demand, prompting firms to ramp up purchases of raw materials at a near-record pace. The HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, dipped to 58.8 in April from a 16-year high of 59.1 in March, below a preliminary estimate for no change from the previous month. Despite softening, it was above its long-run average and in expansionary territory for a 34th month. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction. Sentiments remained positive in afternoon deals, taking support from data showing that the output of eight core industries posted a growth of 5.2 percent in March 2024 as the production of cement, coal, electricity, natural gas, steel and crude oil recorded positive growth in the same month. The output of core sectors had grown by 7.1 per cent in February 2024 and 4.1 per cent in January 2024, while it stood 4.2 per cent in March 2023. However, markets trimmed some gains in final hour of trade as traders got anxious as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned net sellers in Indian stocks in April, after remaining net buyers in the two preceding months, as the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East coupled with strength US bond yield likely pushed investors to take money off their portfolios. Some concern also came with report that the Reserve Bank of India will likely delay cutting interest rates until the final quarter of the year, as inflation risks rise and the US Federal Reserve keeps rates on hold for longer. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 128.33 points or 0.17% to 74,611.11 and the CNX Nifty was up by 43.35 points or 0.19% points to 22,648.20.

The US markets ended higher on Thursday as traders seemed to breathe a sigh of relief following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. Traders have recently expressed some concerns the Fed's next monetary policy move could actually be an interest rate hike rather than a cut, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell post-meeting remarks seem to have alleviated those worries. On the sectoral front, transportation stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the session, resulting in a 2.5 percent spike by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Substantial strength also emerged among semiconductor stocks, as reflected by the 2.2 percent surge by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Retail stocks also showed a significant move to the upside as the day progressed, driving the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index up by 2.0 percent. On the economic data front, new orders for U.S. manufactured goods surged in line with street estimates in the month of March, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. The Commerce Department said factory orders shot up by 1.6 percent in March after jumping by a downwardly revised 1.2 percent in February. Street had expected factory orders to spike by 1.6 percent compared to the 1.4 percent surge originally reported for the previous month. The sharp increase in factory orders came as durable goods orders soared by 2.6 percent in March after climbing by 0.7 percent in February. Orders for transportation equipment led the way higher, skyrocketing by 7.8 percent.

Crude oil futures ended slightly lower on Thursday amid traders continued to gauge risks to the flow of oil in the Middle East amid ongoing cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas. However, a softer dollar helped lift oil prices from low after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it was still leaning toward eventual reductions in interest rates. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery fell $0.05 or 0.06% to settle at $78.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for July delivery gained $0.23 or 0.27% to $83.67 per barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended lower on Thursday amid a strong American currency and rising crude oil prices in global markets. Traders were worried as the growth in output of eight key infrastructure industries slowed to 5.2 per cent in March from 7.1 per cent in February. Investors took a note of the report stating that India's manufacturing sector growth eased slightly in the month of April but signaled the second-best improvement in the health of the sector for three-and-a-half years, supported by buoyant demand. Firms experienced a sharp upturn in new business intakes and scaled up production accordingly. On the global front, the yen fell slightly against the dollar on Thursday, reversing direction after a sudden surge late on Wednesday that traders and analysts were quick to attribute to intervention by Japanese authorities. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.46 (Provisional), weaker by 3 paise from its previous close of 83.43 on Tuesday.

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 21768.10 crore against gross selling of Rs 19917.08 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 941.70 crore with gross sales of Rs 1209.99 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 24.69 crore against gross selling of Rs 19.77 crore.

The US markets ended higher on Thursday as investors looked ahead to more earnings as well as the nonfarm payrolls report set to be released on Friday. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday following Wall Street gains ahead of key U.S. employment data. Stock markets in Japan and mainland China were shut for public holidays. Indian markets ended a range-bound session with a positive bias on Thursday, a day after the US Federal Reserve kept key interest rates unchanged at 5.5 per cent. Today, domestic indices are likely to get optimistic start tracking gains across global markets. Sentiments will get boost as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its growth forecast for India by 40 basis points to 6.6 per cent for 2024-25, holding that buoyant public investment and improved business confidence are expected to propel India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Some support will also come with a private report that the stock market reflects India's ascendance as an economic superpower with premium valuations, but challenges remain for inclusive growth. As per the report, over the past decade, India has steadily climbed the ranks of global economies, transitioning from the tenth to the fifth largest economy in the world. Meanwhile, economic think tank GTRI in its report said India's imports of electronics, telecom, and electrical products soared to $89.8 billion in 2023-24 and over half of these imports are sourced from China and Hong Kong. However, traders may be concerned amid foreign fund outflows. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Rs 964.47 crore shares on May 2, provisional data from the NSE showed. Some cautiousness may come as Reserve Bank data showed that India's services exports declined 1.3 per cent in March to $30 billion while imports fell by 2.1 per cent to $16.61 billion. As per RBI's data on India's international trade in services, the trade surplus during March 2024 was $13.4 billion. There will be some reaction in coal industry stocks as India's domestic coal production rose 7.41 per cent to 78.69 million tonnes (MT) in April. The country's coal output was 73.26 MT in the corresponding month of the previous fiscal year. On the earnings front, Titan, Britannia Industries, Adani Green Energy, Godrej Properties, MRF, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals and HFCL are among other to announce their Q4FY24 results later in the day.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)


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  • Tata Steel and TEXMiN have forged a landmark partnership aimed at catalysing innovation and reshaping the landscape of natural resource management in India.
  • HCL Technologies and Cisco have launched Pervasive Wireless Mobility as-a-Service for secure and seamless enterprise-wide connectivity.
  • Maruti Suzuki India has commenced pre-bookings for the highly anticipated 4th generation Epic New Swift for Rs 11,000.
  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone has handled 36.2 MMT of total cargo, which is a good 12% Year-on-Year growth in April 2024.

News Analysis