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NSE Intra-day chart (30 November 2022)
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Market Commentary 01 December 2022
Benchmarks likely to get optimistic start on firm global cues


Extending their winning streak to a seventh consecutive session, Indian equity benchmarks ended at fresh record closing highs with gains of over half percent each on Wednesday. Markets made slightly positive start and managed to keep heads in green terrain in the first half as investors reluctant to make any significant move ahead of the Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) numbers to be out later in the day. There are expectations that annual growth in the Indian economy likely slowed in the July-September quarter as COVID distortions faded. As per a private report, the economy is likely to post annual growth of 6.2% in the three months to September 30, down from explosive growth of 13.5% in the previous quarter, which was inflated by comparison with weak activity during COVID-19 lockdowns. However, key gauges picked up momentum in the last hour with Sensex crossing 63,000 and Nifty 18,750 for the first time. Traders found solace amid a private report stating that global investors are bullish on Indian equities market in spite of the 86 per cent premium it commands over emerging market peers and on the back of a 17 per cent outperformance so far this year. Some support also came as provisional data available on the NSE showed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net-bought shares worth Rs 1,241.57 crore on November 29, 2022. Besides, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the Union government has saved Rs 2,00,000 crore by using technology as systems like Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) stopped leakages. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 417.81 points or 0.67% to 63,099.65 and the CNX Nifty was up by 140.30 points or 0.75% to 18,758.35.


The US markets ended sharply higher on Wednesday as remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided further evidence the central bank plans to slow its aggressive pace of interest rate hikes as soon as next month. Powell noted that the full effects of the Fed's rapid rate increases have yet to be felt. However, the Fed chief argued the timing of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes is less significant than how much further the central bank will need to raise rates and how long it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level. While the central bank seems likely to slow the pace of rate hikes, Powell suggested rates would likely need to be somewhat higher than predicted by Fed officials following the September meeting. At that time, Fed officials forecast interest rates would peak at 4.6 percent in 2023 before being scaled back to 3.9 percent in 2024. On the sectoral front, semiconductor stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the session, resulting in a 5.9 percent spike by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The surge lifted the index to a three-month closing high. Substantial strength also emerged among networking stocks, with the NYSE Arca Networking Index soaring by 3.7 percent to its best closing level in almost a month. On the economic data front, pending home sales in the U.S. decreased for the fifth consecutive month in October, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR said its pending home sales index tumbled by 4.6 percent to 77.1 in October after plunging by 8.7 percent to a revised reading of 80.8 in September. Street had expected pending home sales to slump by 5.2 percent compared to the 10.2 percent nosedive originally reported for the previous month.


Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Wednesday after data showed a steep fall in crude inventories in the U.S. in the week ended November 25, 2022. Data released by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories in the U.S. dropped by nearly 13 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly decline since the week ended June 21, 2019. The EIA data also showed that gasoline stockpiles increased by 2.77 million barrels last week, while distillates stockpiles rose by 3.55 million barrels. Further, expectations of increased demand from China and a weaker dollar also contributed to the jump in oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery rose $2.35 or about 3 percent at $80.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery gained $2.75 or about 3.25 percent to settle at $87.00 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday as persistent foreign capital inflows and fall in crude oil prices strengthened investor sentiment. Traders got some encouragement, as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is all set to launch the first pilot for retail digital Rupee on December 01, 2022.  The pilot would cover select locations in closed user group (CUG) comprising participating customers and merchants. The retail digital Rupee would be in the form of a digital token that represents legal tender. On the global front, dollar eased from a one-week high on Wednesday ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while optimism over a possible loosening in China's COVID restrictions set it on course for its biggest monthly loss since late 2010. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.38 (Provisional), stronger by 34 paise from its previous close of 81.72 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6605.43 crore against gross selling of Rs 5326.11 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 381.59 crore against gross selling of Rs 319.64 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9.24 crore against gross selling of Rs 12.72 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Wednesday amid Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell's dovish stance in his speech. The Fed chair signaled that the US Central Bank would reduce the aggressive pace of rate highs. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday as China reopening hopes and broad weakness in the dollar in the wake of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks in a speech helped improve risk sentiment. Indian markets rose notably on Wednesday to extend gains for a seventh straight session and reach fresh record highs on the back of firm global cues. Today, start of new month likely to be optimistic tracking firm global cues. Investors will be eyeing the manufacturing PMI data for November to be out later in the day. Traders will be taking encouragement as the government data showed that retail inflation for industrial workers rose to 6.08 per cent in October from 6.49 per cent in September 2022 mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. Some support will come as Chief Economic Advsior V Anantha Nageswaran said the Indian economy is on track to achieve a 6.8-7 per cent GDP growth in the current fiscal. He said the economic recovery momentum is continuing and the GDP is averaging the 2019-20 level. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 9,010.41 crore on 30 November, according to the provisional data available on the NSE. Besides, India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman expects strong growth and lower inflation next year, as central bank authorities seek to stabilize Asia's third-largest economy amid tough global headwinds. However, there may be some cautiousness as the government data showed that India's economic growth slowed to 6.3 per cent in the September quarter of 2022-23 compared to 13.5 per cent in the preceding three months mainly on account of contraction in output of manufacturing and mining sectors. Also, traders may be concerned as growth in production by eight infrastructure industries, which comprise the core sector, slowed down sharply to a 20-month low of 0.1 per cent in October, owing to a high base effect and weak activity. Meanwhile, the Centre's fiscal deficit touched 45.6 per cent of the Budget target in the first seven months of the current financial year, higher than 36.3 per cent in the corresponding period of the last year. Auto stocks will be in focus reacting to their monthly sales numbers.


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