Indian equity
benchmarks ended in red on Monday led by losses in index heavyweights Titan
Company, TCS, HCL Technologies and Reliance Industries. The benchmarks opened
higher, as the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) is
expecting India's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 11.5 percent in Q1
(first quarter) and 8.4-10.1 per cent for the whole year 2021-22. According to
NCAER's estimates, the economic growth had contracted by 7.3 percent during
2020-21. It has also pitched for strong fiscal support to push economic growth.
However, key gauges gave up gains mirroring cautious trend in other Asian
markets as a spike in coronavirus cases across the region over the weekend hurt
investor sentiment. Some cautiousness came in as the government's total
liabilities stood at Rs 116.21 lakh crore at the end of March 2021, up 6.36 per
cent from the previous quarter. The total liabilities (including liabilities
under the Public Account) of the government were Rs 109.26 lakh crore at
end-December 2020. Also, RBI data showed that sliding from a lifetime high,
India's forex reserves declined by $4.148 billion to reach $603.933 billion for
the week ended June 18 due to a fall in gold and currency assets. Markets
continued their lackluster trade in late afternoon session, as India Ratings
and Research (Ind-Ra) said its earlier estimate of gross domestic product (GDP)
growth at 10.1 per cent for the current financial year (FY22) is unlikely to
hold due to the speed and scale of Covid 2.0. It now expects GDP growth to come
in at 9.6 per cent in FY22. This is however contingent upon India vaccinating
its entire adult population by December 31. Some concern also came with S&P
Global Ratings stating the Covid pandemic could worsen structural deficits and
indebtedness of states, despite a likely rebound in the economy over the next
12-24 months. Meanwhile, the government has extended the second phase of FAME
India scheme by two years till March 31, 2024, for faster adoption of electric
mobility and development of its manufacturing ecosystem in the country.
Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 189.45 points or 0.36% to 52,735.59, while the CNX
Nifty was down by 45.65 points or 0.29% to 15,814.70.
The US markets ended mostly
higher on Monday, boosted by a court win for Facebook and broad strength in
tech stocks. Tech stock Facebook climbed by about 4 percent after a federal
court dismissed the Federal Trade Commission's antitrust case against the
social media company. US District Judge James Boasberg in Washington dismissed
the complaints filed last year by FTC and state attorneys general led by New
York's Letitia James. The complaint was seeking to break Facebook's monopoly in
social networking, which could have resulted in divestiture of Instagram and
WhatsApp. In the complaint, FTC and the states had claimed that Facebook
violated antitrust laws by buying photo-sharing app Instagram and messaging
service WhatsApp to eliminate any competition and continue its monopoly. In the
filing, the court states that the FTC did not prove Facebook controls over 60
percent of the market -a monopoly. However, upside remained capped on concerns
about the spread of the delta variant Covid-19 in Europea and Asia, and the
resultant fresh restrictions on travel in several countries weighed on
sentiment. Also, with some crucial economic data, including reports on private
sector employment, non-farm payrolls employment, manufacturing activity,
consumer confidence, and factory orders, due later in the week, traders were a
bit wary of creating fresh long positions.
Crude oil futures ended lower on
Monday, pulling back after a recent rise to their highest levels since October
2018. Concerns about outlook for energy demand following new travel
restrictions in some European countries, including Germany, Spain and Portugal,
and fresh lockdown moves in Australia amid concerns over the spread of the
delta variant of Covid-19 weighed on oil prices. Traders were also a bit
reluctant to create fresh long positions ahead of the upcoming meeting of the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, due this
Thursday. Crude oil futures for August dropped $1.14 or 1.5 percent to settle
at $72.91 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent crude fell
$1.50 or 2 percent to settle at $74.68 a barrel on London's Intercontinental
Exchange.
Indian rupee ended marginally
higher against dollar on Monday, on persistent selling of the American currency
by exporters. Traders took some solace as FPIs in June turned net buyers by
pumping in a net Rs 12,714 crore into Indian markets. However, upside remain
capped as investors were cautious as India's forex reserves declined by $4.148
billion to reach $603.933 billion for the week ended June 18 due to a fall in
gold and currency assets. The forex kitty had surged by $3.074 billion to a
record high of $608.081 billion in the previous reporting week. Traders took
note of NCAER report stating that it is expecting India's GDP to grow 11.5
percent in Q1 and 8.4-10.1 per cent for the whole year 2021-22. On the global
front, sterling rose on Monday as traders brace for the end of the worst month
versus the dollar since September, with the focus moving to political risks
this week. Finally, the rupee ended 74.19, stronger by 1 paise from its
previous close of 74.20 on Friday.
The FIIs as per Monday's data
were net seller in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 7494.98 crore against gross selling of Rs 7674.05 crore, while
in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 132.63 crore with gross sales
of Rs 1104.07 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs
2.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 4.38 crore.
The US markets ended mostly
higher on Monday fueled by tech stocks as investors expect a robust earnings
season while interest rates remain low. Asian markets are trading mostly in red
on Tuesday fueled by tech stocks as investors expect a robust earnings season
while interest rates remain low. Indian markets ended lower on Monday weighed
by financial, IT and energy stocks. However, metal and pharma stocks surged
capping some losses. Today, the markets are likely to make negative start amid
lackluster cues from Asian peers. Traders will be concerned as S&P Global
cut its growth forecasts for some of Asia's top economies including India, the
Philippines and Malaysia, offsetting upgrades to China and South Africa and
much of Latin America. The estimates, which feed into S&P's
closely-followed sovereign ratings, saw India's growth projection chopped to
9.5% from 11% due to its COVID-19 outbreak. However, some respite may come
later in the day as Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the
much-awaited fiscal package to revive the economy ravaged by the second
pandemic wave, keeping the fiscal outgo limited for the current year. The Rs 6.28-trillion
package included a new credit guarantee scheme for health, tourism and micro
borrowers, besides expanding the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS)
by half to Rs 4.5 trillion and extending the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana.
The government announced Rs 1.1-trillion loan guarantees for pandemic-affected
sectors. Of that Rs 50,000 crore will be for scaling up medical infrastructure
in non-metropolitan cities. Traders may take some encouragement as witnessing a
sharp decline, India recorded 37,037 fresh Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours
with 907 fatalities, Worldometer showed. Some support may also come as Chief
Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said the target of mopping up Rs
1.75 lakh crore from disinvestments of some of the public sector companies,
including LIC and BPCL during the current fiscal, is on track and groundwork is
being prepared for the goal. Travel sector stocks will be in focus as the
Centre announced free visas for 500,000 tourists and a loan guarantee scheme to
support recognised tour operators and tourist guides whose business has been
disrupted due to Covid-19 pandemic. There will be some reaction in oil &
gas industry stocks with report that India's natural gas producers expect some
cheer as the domestic gas price is set to rise after having fallen for two
consecutive years.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
15,814.70
|
15,766.01
|
15,889.51
|
BSE
Sensex
|
52,735.59
|
52,563.81
|
53,017.04
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
State Bank of India
|
293.70
|
426.75
|
423.15
|
431.75
|
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation
|
237.28
|
122.35
|
121.26
|
123.96
|
Tata Motors
|
178.43
|
342.80
|
338.56
|
346.01
|
ITC
|
146.27
|
203.60
|
202.66
|
205.21
|
Hindalco Industries
|
145.18
|
382.30
|
376.05
|
386.75
|
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HDFC Bank and its subsidiary HDFC Securities have acquired 7.4% stake in Virtuoso InfoTech.