Indian equity
benchmarks ended in the negative territory for the second straight trading
session on Monday, dragged by selling in Energy, Finance and Healthcare stocks
amid mixed global cues. Key gauges made negative start and stayed in red for
whole day, with disappointing macro-economic data. With decline in output of
capital goods, manufacturing and mining sectors, industrial production
re-entered the negative territory in January. The Index of Industrial
Production contracted by 1.6 percent in January 2021 over last year, compared
to a rise of 1.6 percent in December. Besides, owing to higher food and fuel
prices, the consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation rose to
three-month high of 5.03 per cent in February as compared to 4.06 percent in
January, raising fresh concerns about the health of the economy. Some concern
also came amid reports that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers
to the tune of Rs 7,013 crore so far this month in the Indian markets on
profit-booking as jitters in global bond markets spooked investors. As per
depositories data, FPIs pulled out Rs 531 crore from equities and Rs 6,482
crore from the debt segment between Mar 1-13. Sentiments remained fragile in
late afternoon session, as the Wholesale price-based inflation (WPI) in
February rose to its 27-month high to 4.17 percent as against 2.03 percent a
month ago in January. This is a 27-month high. However, markets recovered some
losses in final hour of trade, as traders found some support with Minister of
State for Finance and Corporate Affairs Anurag Thakur's statement that there
are green shoots visible in various sectors of the economy and the country is
already looking at a V-shaped recovery. Besides, NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant
has said that India's power is truly represented by its sustained economic
growth, which is a key to its future and critical for security reasons. He said
as a fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic radical reforms were ushered in across a
range of sectors and asserted that India has had the sharpest recovery among
the major economies. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 397.00 points or 0.78% to
50,395.08, while the CNX Nifty was down by 101.45 points or 0.67% to 14,929.50.
The US markets
ended higher on Monday. The strength that emerged on markets reflected optimism
about the economic outlook amid stepped up coronavirus vaccination efforts and
the recent passage of a new $1.9 trillion stimulus bill. A pullback by treasury yields also have
generated some buying interest, with the ten-year yield moving lower after
ending last Friday's trading at its highest closing level in over a year.
However, trading activity was somewhat subdued as traders looked ahead to the
Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is widely
expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but traders will be paying close
attention to any changes to the accompanying statement. On the economic data
front, a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed an
acceleration in the pace of growth in New York manufacturing activity in the
month of March. The New York Fed said its general business conditions index
climbed to 17.4 in March from 12.1 in February, with a positive reading
indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. Street had expected the
index to rise to 14.5. With the bigger than expected increase, the general
business conditions index reached its highest level since hitting 21.2 in
November of 2018. The advance by the headline index was partly due to a
substantial acceleration in the pace of growth in shipments, with the shipments
index jumping to 21.1 in March from 4.0 in February.
Crude oil futures ended lower on
Monday with traders weighing energy demand prospects in the wake of reports
about spikes in coronavirus cases in Europe, and reports about several
countries temporarily suspending the use of the vaccine from AstraZeneca. Oil
prices fell despite China's industrial output and retail sales surged in the
first two months of the year, boosting the energy demand outlook at the world's
largest oil importer. Industrial production in China jumped 35.1% year-on-year
in the period including January and February - beating forecasts for an
increase of 30%. Crude oil futures for April slipped $0.22 or about 0.3 percent
to settle at $65.39 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude
fell $0.45 or 0.65 percent to settle at $68.77 a barrel on London's
Intercontinental Exchange.
Continuing previous session
gains, Indian rupee ended significantly higher against dollar, on persistent
selling of the American currency by exporters. Rupee was traded higher despite
industrial production growth re-entered the negative territory by contracting
by 1.6 per cent in January, while retail inflation soared to a three-month high
of 5.03 per cent in February on costlier food items. Also, Wholesale
price-based inflation (WPI) in February rose to its 27-month high to 4.17
percent as against 2.03 percent a month ago in January. Traders ignored report
that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers to the tune of Rs 7,013
crore so far this month in the Indian markets on profit-booking as jitters in
global bond markets spooked investors. On the global front, dollar gained for a
second consecutive session on Monday as rising U.S. Treasury yields forced
traders to cut their bearish dollar bets to four-month lows. Finally, the rupee
ended at 72.46, stronger by 33 paise from its previous close of 72.79 on
Friday.
The FIIs as per Monday's data
were net buyer in equity segment and net seller in debt segment. In equity
segment, the gross buying was of Rs 12221.30 crore against gross selling of Rs
8329.98 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 144.56
crore with gross sales of Rs 692.73 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the
gross buying was of Rs 23.02 crore against gross selling of Rs 30.94 crore.
The US markets ended higher on
Monday amid optimism over the economic reopening. Asian markets are trading
mostly in green on Tuesday ahead of this week's US Federal Reserve meeting.
Indian markets trimmed some intra-day losses but ended lower on Monday as US
bond yields continued to hover near their 13-month peak coupled with
disappointing macro-economic data. Today, the start of session is likely to be
positive tracking gains in Asian peers coupled with overnight rally in US
markets. Some support will come with the government data showing that the
country's exports rose marginally by 0.67 per cent year-on-year to $27.93
billion in February, Growing for the third consecutive month, even as trade
deficit widened to $12.62 billion. Imports rose by 6.96 per cent to $40.54
billion in the month. Traders may take note of report that Prime Minister
Narendra Modi will interact with chief ministers on the Covid-19 situation and
the ongoing vaccination drive on Wednesday as the Centre looks to ramp up the
inoculation exercise amid a rise in infection in some states. However, traders
may be concerned as India reported 24,366 fresh Covid-19 cases on Monday
pushing the overall tally to 11,409,524, according to Worldometer. The death
toll from the deadly infection jumped to 158,892. India ranks 11th among
worst-hit nations by active cases. Maharashtra reported 15,051 new coronavirus
cases on Monday, taking the state's caseload to 23,29,464, while 48 fatalities
took the death toll to 52,909. There may be some cautiousness with the
government's statement that Cinema halls, hotels, restaurants and offices
except those related to health and essential services in Maharashtra will
function at 50 percent capacity till March 31. Oil & gas sector stocks will
be in focus as finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said at present, there is no
proposal to bring crude petroleum, petrol, diesel, ATF and natural gas under
GST. Banking operations were severely hit in some places like West Bengal as
officers and employees of public sector lenders went on a strike to protest
against the proposed privatisation of two state-owned banks. There will be some
reaction in aviation industry stocks with ICRA's report that the domestic
airport sector is expected to incur a net loss of Rs 5,400 crore, and cash loss
of Rs 3,500 crore in FY21, impacted by a 66 per cent year-on-year slip in
passenger traffic amid COVID-19 induced travel restrictions. Meanwhile, Kalyan
Jewellers India Ltd on Monday raised Rs 352 crore from anchor investors ahead
of its initial share-sale, which opens for public subscription on Tuesday. The
issue, with a price band of Rs 86-87 a share, will open be open for public
subscription during March 16-18.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
14,929.50
|
14,767.44
|
15,069.99
|
BSE
Sensex
|
50,395.08
|
49,851.18
|
50,886.89
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Tata
Motors
|
450.83
|
318.55
|
312.26
|
322.61
|
State
Bank of India
|
427.22
|
383.90
|
373.50
|
390.15
|
ITC
|
411.15
|
205.45
|
202.70
|
207.10
|
ICICI
Bank
|
243.48
|
603.50
|
591.79
|
614.04
|
Gail
India
|
225.13
|
143.55
|
140.80
|
147.05
|
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