Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (30 May 2022)
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Market Commentary 31 May 2022
Markets likely to get negative start; GDP data eyed


Indian equity benchmarks ended higher for a third straight session on Monday, following positive global cues due to China easing Covid curbs. Some local factors helping the mood include early arrival of monsoon in Kerala raising hopes of a favourable impact on agri crops. After the gap-up start, the benchmarks inched gradually higher, as traders took encouragement with RBI data showing that India's forex reserves increased by $4.23 billion to $597.509 billion for the week ended May 20 on the back of a high accretion of core currency assets. Some support also came in with report that State finances showed improvement in 2021-22 as the consolidated gross fiscal deficit (GFD) of 26 states was lower by 31.5 per cent than a year ago. Sentiments were positive, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi said his government has tried to ensure that farmers in the country are not affected even though the prices of fertilisers in international markets have soared due to the pandemic and ongoing war in Ukraine. Sentiments remained up-beat in late afternoon deals, taking support from minister of state for commerce and industry Anupriya Patel's statement that India is fast-tracking negotiations for proposed free trade agreements with certain developed countries like the UK as well as with the European Union, and maybe by this year end, the government would be able to give a final shape to few of these pacts. The markets also took support from the annual report data showed the size of the Reserve Bank's balance sheet, which is reflective of activities carried out by it in pursuance of currency issue function as well as monetary policy and reserve management, has increased by 8.46 per cent during 2021-22. It said the increase on the asset side was due to rise in foreign investments, domestic investments, gold, and loans and advances by 4.28 per cent, 11.67 per cent, 30.07 per cent and 54.53 per cent, respectively. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 1041.08 points or 1.90% to 55,925.74 and the CNX Nifty was up by 308.95 points or 1.89% to 16,661.40. 


The US markets were closed on Monday on account of Memorial Day.


Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Monday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Traders got some solace as RBI data showed that India's forex reserves increased by $4.23 billion to $597.509 billion for the week ended May 20 on the back of a high accretion of core currency assets. Healthy gains in equity markets also supported rupee. However, upside remain capped as continuing their selling spree, foreign investors have dumped Indian equities worth over Rs 39,000 crore this month so far amid rising bond yields in the US, an appreciating dollar and prospects of more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. With this, the net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities has reached Rs 1.66 lakh crore so far in 2022. On the global front, dollar resumed its backward slide on Monday as risk appetite across markets tentatively strengthened, supported by more encouraging economic data and bets that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy at a slower pace. Finally, the rupee ended at 77.54 (Provisional), stronger by 4 paise from its previous close of 77.58 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3767.94 crore against gross selling of Rs 6904.74 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 322.78 crore with gross sales of Rs 609.77 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.00 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.83 crore.


The US markets were shut for trading on Monday on account of Memorial Day. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Tuesday as investors remain optimistic on bets of a possible slowdown in US monetary tightening and easing of the pandemic-related restrictions in China. Indian markets rose to nearly one-month closing highs on Monday as the bulls continued to dominate Dalal Street for the third day running. Today, markets are likely to make weak start amid a steep rise in oil prices. Oil prices continued to rise in early Asian trade on Tuesday after the European Union said it had agreed to cut 90 per cent of oil imports from Russia by the end of this year. Brent Crude futures were above $122 a barrel this morning. Investors will be eyeing GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year (2021-22) to be out later in the day.  As per the expectations, India's economy likely slowed in the fourth quarter and is expected to grow between 3.5-5.5 percent. Some cautiousness may come as domestic ratings agency India Ratings said the GST has not helped states achieve the key objective of boosting their tax revenue. The rating agency said that the data does not point to any benefits to the states in the last five years since the implementation of GST (Goods and Services Tax). However, some support may come as Ajay Seth, secretary at the department of economic affairs, said India's inflation should ease in the coming months following steps taken by the Union government and as global prices coming off in May will have a salutary impact. Traders may be taking encouragement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that India trusted its scientists, doctors, youth during the COVID-19 pandemic and did not become a problem but was a solution-giver for the world. He also said that coming out of the negative impact of Covid, India has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world. There will be some buzz in NBFCs stocks as Crisil Ratings said stressed assets of non-banking financial companies- microfinance institutions (NBFC-MFIs) are estimated to have declined to around 14 per cent as of March 2022 from close to 22 per cent in September 2021, helped by revival in the economy and limited impact of the omicron variant. Sugar industry stocks will be in focus as Ind-Ra said the country's sugar exports are expected to increase to around 9-10 million tonnes in sugar season 2022, beginning October, following lower production in Brazil due to adverse weather conditions. There will be some reaction in logistics stocks with report that the government may set a more ambitious target to reduce the country's elevated logistics costs, long blamed for eroding its export competitiveness, as it inches closer to finalising a national logistics policy. Power stocks will be in limelight as India plans to reduce power generation from least 81 coal-fired utilities over the next four years, the federal power ministry said in a letter, in an effort to replace expensive thermal generation with cheaper green energy sources.


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  • ONGC has reported 10.02% rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 12,061.44 crore for Q4FY22 as compared to Rs 10,963.04 crore for Q4FY21. 
  • Tata Motors' subsidiary -- TPEML and FIPL have signed MoU with the Government of Gujarat for the potential acquisition of FIPL's Sanand vehicle manufacturing facility. 
  • L&T has secured one more package in the Chennai Metro Rail Projects. 
  • ITC has acquired 400 equity shares of Rs 10 each and 2,980 Compulsorily Convertible Cumulative Participating Preference Shares of Rs 100 each of Blupin Technologies, representing 10.07% of its share capital on a fully diluted basis.
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