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NSE Intra-day chart (30 March 2022)
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Market Commentary 31 March 2022
Markets likely to get cautious start amid weak global cues


Indian equity benchmarks logged gains for the third day on Wednesday, aided by Finance, Realty and Banking stocks, amid a moderation in crudes prices after Russia hinted at de-escalation of the conflict with Ukraine. Markets made a gap-up opening and traded on a firm note throughout the day, as investors' morale remained upbeat with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India's sharp economic recovery post COVID-19 and Budget initiatives will help in sustaining growth momentum in the years to come. Meanwhile, she said FDI into the country during the Modi government was $500.5 billion, which is 65 per cent more than the amount received in the 10 years of the UPA government, as investors have trusted the economic management of the current regime. Some optimism also came as Sanjiv Mehta, President of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) said that the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), India's Free Trade Agreement with UAE, is good for all types of businesses and industries be it small scale or large scale and holds benefit for both goods and services sector. Benchmarks continued to move higher in late afternoon deals, as traders took some encouragement with Union minister Narayan Rane's statement that the government is setting up a global market intelligence network to boost India's exports from the micro, small and medium enterprises sector. He said the Global Market Intelligence Network will act as a knowledge repository of export-related data on foreign markets and facilitate easier market access for MSME exporters. Some support also came as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated that gross NPAs have reduced to Rs 7.73 lakh crore as of December 31, 2021, against Rs 10.36 lakh crore as of March 31, 2018, due to transparent recognition of stressed assets. Traders overlooked report by domestic ratings agency ICRA in which it has cut its FY23 real Gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate by a sharp 0.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent. It attributed the downward revision to elevated commodity prices and also fresh supply chain issues arising from the conflict in Ukraine. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 740.34 points or 1.28% to 58,683.99 and the CNX Nifty was up by 172.95 points or 1.00% to 17,498.25.


The US markets ended lower on Wednesday amid fading hopes about peace talks between Russia and Ukraine after the former continued to shell certain areas of Ukraine despite having promised to scale down military operations on Tuesday. Rising worries about inflation and imminent aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve weighed as well on sentiment. Besides, profit taking after three successive days of gains pushed the Dow to a weak close. The Nasdaq, which scored strong gains in the previous two sessions, ended with a more pronounced loss, as chip stocks fell sharply. On the economic data front, a report released by payroll processor ADP showed private sector employment in the US jumped by 455,000 jobs in March after surging by an upwardly revised 486,000 jobs in February. Street had expected private sector employment to climb by 450,000 jobs compared to the addition of 475,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. Data released by the Commerce Department showed the U.S. economy grew by slightly less than previously estimated in the fourth quarter of 2021. The Commerce Department said real gross domestic product increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter, reflecting a modest downward revision from the previously estimated 7% spike. Street had expected GDP growth to be unrevised.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday amid skepticism over progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks following Russia continuing to attack some areas in Ukraine despite its promise to scale down military operations. Besides, data showing a bigger than expected drop in US crude stockpiles last week contributed as well to the jump in oil prices. Data released by US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US crude stockpiles fell by a bigger-than-expected 3.4 million barrels last week, cutting inventories to 410 million barrels, the lowest levels since September 2018. Crude stockpiles were expected to drop by about 1 million barrels last week. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery surged $3.58 or 3.4 percent to settle at $107.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery gained $3.12 or 2.9 percent to settle at $113.35 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Erasing previous session gains, Indian rupee weakened against dollar on Wednesday on emergence of demand for the greenback from importers amid surging crude oil prices and fuel rate hikes by the oil marketing companies fanned fears of inflation and interest rate hikes. At home, oil marketing companies raised prices of petrol and diesel by 80 paise a litre each on Wednesday, taking the total increase in rates in the last nine days to Rs 5.60 per litre. This is the ninth increase in prices since the ending of a four-and-half-month long hiatus in rate revision on March 22. Traders shrugged off Union minister Narayan Rane's statement that the government is setting up a global market intelligence network to boost India's exports from the micro, small and medium enterprises sector. On the global front, dollar fell to its lowest in almost two weeks on Wednesday and the euro gained, with currency traders optimistic about peace talks in Ukraine, even amid warnings about the damage to Europe's economy. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.94 (Provisional), weaker by 21 paise from its previous close of 75.73 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7726.56 crore against gross selling of Rs 7903.38 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 104.09 crore against gross selling of Rs 788.15 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 29.65 crore against gross selling of Rs 24.17 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Wednesday as Russian forces bombarded the outskirts of Kyiv, a day after promising to scale down operations. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday on the back of drop in oil prices. Indian markets continued to rise for the third session in a row on Wednesday, with the Nifty50 coming within two points of the 17,500 mark, helped by financial, auto and IT shares. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start on the last session of fiscal year 2022 (FY22) tracking weak global sentiment. Domestic markets are likely to be volatile today on account of the monthly future & options expiry today. Investors will also watch the OPEC+ meet later today. Traders will be concerned as India Ratings lowered its GDP growth forecast for FY23 to 7-7.2 per cent, from 7.6 per cent earlier citing the rising uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine war and the resultant dampening of consumer sentiment. It said since the duration of the war continues to be uncertain, in the first scenario crude oil prices could remain elevated for three months, and in the second case for six months. Traders may take note of report that the global macroeconomic uncertainties have increased due to the Russia-Ukraine war, but it is too early to predict its impact on the Indian economy. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund said India, which has received a record number of foreign direct investment during the last few years despite COVID-19 crisis, has quite a few safeguards in place to mitigate the risks from capital flows. There will be some buzz in agriculture industry stocks as Union Minister of State for Commerce Anupriya Singh Patel said India's export of agricultural products have touched $40.87 billion in the first 10 months of the current fiscal and it is 25.14 percent more than the financial year. Jewellery industry stocks will be in focus as rating agency Crisil said the revenue of gold jewellery retailers is likely to increase by 12-15 per cent in 2022-23 on steady demand and sustained high prices of gold. There will be some reaction in infrastructure industry stocks as the government said that under the guidance of the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), 787 new projects with an investment value of Rs 19.6 lakh crore have been brought on the Project Monitoring Group (PMG) for monitoring in FY22 and 44 projects with an investment value of Rs 1.25 lakh crore have been commissioned.


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News Analysis