Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (29 June 2022)
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Market Commentary 30 June 2022
Markets likely to get flat-to-negative start tailing weak global cues


Indian equity benchmarks ended in red on Wednesday in line with tepid global markets as inflation and recession fears continued to hurt sentiment. Markets made gap-down opening as continued selling in FIIs weighted on market sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 1,244.44 crore on June 28. Some cautiousness came in with a private report that after a gap, the prices of select varieties of pulses have started rising for the past few days due to a delay in the onset of the southwest monsoon over major growing regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. Some concerns also came after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest data has showed that the growth in Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) deposits moderated to 10 per cent year-on-year in March 2022, compared to an increase of 11.9 per cent a year ago. During 2021-2022, current, savings and term deposits rose by 10.9 per cent, 13.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent, respectively. However, key gauges trimmed most of their losses in late afternoon deals, as traders took some support as Union Minister Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma emphasised the Micro, Small & Medium Enterprise (MSME) sector's important role in making India a $5-trillion economy and said that the government will remove all the barriers in credit flow to this sector. He also said that the government was also committed to develop a better system of redressal and debt facilities. Some support also came as the GST Council approved changes in tax rates on some goods and services while allowing states to issue an e-way bill for intra-state movement of gold and precious stones. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 150.48 points or 0.28% to 53,026.97 and the CNX Nifty was down by 51.10 points or 0.32% to 15,799.10.


The US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday as uncertainty about the near-term outlook for the markets kept some traders on the sidelines following recent volatility. Traders also kept an eye on remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who participated in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Powell reiterated his previously shared belief that the U.S. economy is well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy but cautioned there's no guarantee the Fed can engineer a soft landing. Powell said we think that there are pathways for us to achieve the path back to 2 percent inflation while still retaining a strong labor market. We believe we can do that. It is obviously something that's going to be quite challenging. The Fed chief once again declared his commitment to fighting inflation, arguing that failing to restore price stability poses a bigger risk to the economy than tightening monetary policy too aggressively. On the sectoral front, significant weakness was visible among semiconductor stocks, as reflected by the 2.2 percent slump by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. On the economic data front, revised data released by the Commerce Department showed US economic activity shrank by slightly more than previously estimated in the first quarter of 2022. The report showed the decrease in real gross domestic product in the first quarter was revised to 1.6 percent from the previously reported 1.5 percent. Street had expected the drop in GDP to be unrevised.


Crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday even as the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data showing declines in US crude supplies in the past two weeks, totaling more than three 3 million barrels, excluding oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Data covering the week ended June 17, which the EIA had delayed due to systems issues, revealed a fall to 418.3 million barrels in crude supplies, from 418.7 million barrels the week before, implying a decline of roughly 400,000 barrels. Data for the week ended June 24 showed a fall of 2.8 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels, compared with an average decrease of 500,000 barrels forecast by street. Benchmark crude oil futures for August delivery fell $1.98 or 1.8 percent to settle at $109.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for August delivery dropped $1.72 or 1.5 percent to settle at $116.26 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee continued to slide against the American currency for the fourth day and hit yet another record closing low on Wednesday, as worries about elevated oil prices and inflation returned to the forefront. The sentiment remained feeble for the rupee amid foreign fund outflows. As per stock exchange data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market on Tuesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,244.44 crore. Traders also remained anxious with a private report that after a gap, the prices of select varieties of pulses have started rising for the past few days due to a delay in the onset of the southwest monsoon over major growing regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. On the global front, dollar edged higher on Wednesday, keeping its index against major peers nestled below a two-decade high struck two weeks ago, with investors seeking safety in U.S. assets as stocks declined globally due to the mounting risk of a recession. Finally, the rupee ended at 79.03 (provisional), weaker by 18 paise from its previous close of 78.85 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5334.28 crore against gross selling of Rs 6186.94 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 141.91 crore against gross selling of Rs 1200.91 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.50 crore against gross selling of Rs 24.85 crore.


The US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized on the central banks' hawkish stance to tame high inflation. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Thursday following a choppy session on Wall Street. Indian markets halted a four-day winning streak on Wednesday, as weakness in financial and IT shares outweighed strength in oil & gas stocks in a choppy session. Today, domestic equity markets are likely to get flat-to-negative start tailing weakness in global peers. Trading may remain volatile in today's session ahead of the monthly expiry of derivative contracts. Traders will be concerned with a private report that Inflationary pressures are likely to continue and force the RBI to further hike interest rates during the course of the current fiscal but the tighter financial conditions can impact growth. The report said there are reasons to be optimistic on the growth front but factors like tighter financial conditions can have an impact on the GDP expansion. There will be some cautiousness with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that any increase in GST rates under the rate rationalisation exercise is intended to make up for the inefficiencies in the value chain. Stating that all states are aware of the potential impact of rate rationalisation on inflation, Sitharaman said any increase in tax rates will also make up for the tax burden, which is being borne by some other activities in that value chain. Traders may take note of report that RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised the need for proper interpretation of data to facilitate more informed decision making as it will bring clarity in communication from decision makers as well as formation of rational expectations from market participants. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) board allowed foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to trade in exchange-traded commodity derivatives. The move, it said, will enhance liquidity and market depth, as well as promote efficient price discovery. There will be some buzz in the metal stocks with a private report that after back-to-back downward corrections, steel prices are expected to rise from July due to high input costs. Oil & gas sector stocks will be in focus as the Union Cabinet decided to give marketing freedom to domestic crude oil producers, allowing them to sell petroleum to any company in the local market. There will be some reaction in coal industry stocks as India's coal ministry said it sought assistance from the World Bank and other global institutions for re-purposing its abandoned coal mines to make them environmentally stable and suitable for commercial purpose.


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