Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (29 March 2022)
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Market Commentary 30 March 2022
Markets likely to make gap-up opening amid firm global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended higher for second straight session on Tuesday led by market heavyweights HDFC, Bharti Airtel and Ultratech Cement amid positive cues in the global market. Solid decline in crude oil prices and ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine boosted market sentiments. Markets made optimistic start and stayed in green for whole day, as traders took encouragement as Commerce and industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the free trade agreement between India and the UAE has opened huge opportunities and businesses of both countries should look at taking the bilateral trade to $250 billion by 2030. Some support also came in as Sumant Sinha, the newly elected president of Assocham, said that India needs a strong contract-enforcement agency, a simple GST regime and simplified taxation process along with a stable policy environment to significantly improve ease of doing business.  Key indices added gains in late afternoon deals, taking support from Crisil Ratings' report stated that Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) new rules for microfinance institutions (MFIs), who have been deeply impacted in the Covid 19 pandemic because of loan losses, will help widen profits by giving such entities greater flexibility in operations. Traders overlooked Ministry of Finance in its latest quarterly report on public debt management has showed that total liabilities (including liabilities under the Public Account) of the Government, was Rs 128,41,996 crore at end-December 2021 as against Rs 125,71,747 crore at end-September 2021. This indicates a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.15 per cent in Q3 FY22. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would be compelled to signal a neutral policy stance in the Monetary Policy Committee's review meeting in April as average consumer inflation is likely to stay firm at 5.4 per cent in FY23. It added the RBI will likely raise the repo rate by at least 50-75 basis points through fiscal year 2023, and by another 50 basis points in fiscal 2024. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 350.16 points or 0.61% to 57,943.65 and the CNX Nifty was up by 103.30 points or 0.60% to 17,325.30.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as traders monitored ceasefire negotiations in Europe and key levels in the bond market. Reports about encouraging progress in the cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey helped lift investor sentiment. According to private report, Russia's deputy defense minister has said that Russia has decided to drastically cut its military activity focused on Kyiv and Chernihiv. Ukrainian negotiators proposed adopting neutral status in exchange for security guarantees. Besides, auto stocks were some of the biggest gainers, with Ford rising 6.5% and GM gaining more than 4%. Travel stocks outperformed as well, with Caesar's Entertainment surging 5.6% and American Airlines adding 5%. On the economic data front, the Conference Board released a report showing an unexpected improvement in US consumer confidence in the month of March. The report showed the Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 107.2 in March from a revised 105.7 in February. The increase came as a surprise to participants, who had expected the index to dip to 107.0 in March from the 110.5 originally reported for the previous month. The unexpected uptick by the headline index came as the present situation index jumped to 153.0 in March from 143.0 in February. Meanwhile, the report showed the expectations index fell to 76.6 in March from 80.8 in the previous month.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Tuesday, extending their previous session's losses, amid easing worries about global crude supply after reports said Russia and Ukraine made some encouraging progress in their face-to-face peace talks in Turkey. According to private report, Russia's deputy defense minister has said that Russia has decided to drastically cut its military activity focused on Kyiv and Chernihiv. Ukrainian negotiators said Ukraine proposed adopting neutral status in exchange for security guarantees at the talks, meaning it would not join military alliances or host military bases. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery fell $1.72 or 1.6 percent to settle at $104.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery dropped $2 or 2.25 percent to settle at $110.23 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended significantly stronger against dollar on Tuesday due to fresh selling of the American currency as risk appetite improved in view of broader weakness in the greenback and a firm trend in domestic equities. Sentiments were upbeat with Union Minister of Commerce & Industry Piyush Goyal's statement that India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) will be operationalized on 1 May 2022. India looks to UAE as a gateway to Africa, GCC and Middle Eastern countries, CIS countries and some European nations. In another positive development, Crisil Ratings in its latest report has said that Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) new rules for microfinance institutions (MFIs), who have been deeply impacted in the Covid 19 pandemic because of loan losses, will help widen profits by giving such entities greater flexibility in operations. On the global front, euro rose on Tuesday in cautious trading as Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met in Turkey for the first direct talks in more than two weeks. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.97 (Provisional), stronger by 19 paise from its previous close of 76.16 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7028.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 7419.37 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 581.79 crore against gross selling of Rs 1205.91 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.32 crore against gross selling of Rs 9.18 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as investors welcomed encouraging economic data and as talks on ending the war in Ukraine showed signs of progress. Asian markets are trading mostly higher in early deals on Wednesday as global shares rallied on news that peace talks over Ukraine are making progress. Indian benchmarks ended higher on Tuesday led by market heavyweights HDFC, Bharti Airtel and Ultratech Cement. Today, Indian equity markets are likely to make gap-up opening amid gains across global markets. There will be some encouragement as Crude oil fell and investors celebrated signs of progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Traders may also get support with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement India's sharp economic recovery post COVID-19 and Budget initiatives will help in sustaining growth momentum in the years to come.  She stated the government's road map for imparting momentum to the economy focusses on growth at the macro level and complementing it with all-inclusive welfare at the micro level, promoting digital economy and fintech, technology-enabled development, energy transition and climate action and relying on a virtuous cycle of investment and growth. Meanwhile, she said FDI into the country during the Modi government was USD 500.5 billion, which is 65 per cent more than the amount received in the 10 years of the UPA government, as investors have trusted the economic management of the current regime. However, some cautiousness may come latter in day as rating agency Icra has slashed India's GDP forecast for financial year 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from eight per cent projected earlier, due to elevated commodity prices and supply chain disruptions caused by an ongoing war and lockdowns in China. For the financial year ending March 31, the agency has lowered its GDP growth projection to 8.5 per cent, moderately lower than the National Statistical Office's (NSO) second advance estimate of 8.9 per cent. There may be some buzz in pharmaceutical sector stocks as Union minister Mansukh Mandaviya said manufacturing of 35 active pharmaceutical ingredients, which have been imported earlier, has started in India under the production linked scheme for the pharmaceuticals sector. These 35 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are among the 53 APIs, for which India has 90 per cent import dependence. Gem and jewellery stocks may be in focus as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal called upon gem and jewellery exporters to target USD 100 billion of exports annually in the coming years as the sector holds huge potential to boost outbound shipments.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,325.30

17,259.45

17,367.40

BSE Sensex

57,943.65

57,721.49

58,083.67

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

187.10

433.70

430.29

438.24

ITC

181.22

254.30

252.86

256.61

Bharti Airtel

158.33

753.50

739.34

765.34

State Bank of India

143.01

495.50

491.00

500.70

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

142.10

171.00

169.30

173.95

  • ICICI Bank has signed an agreement for investment in India Debt Resolution Company on March 28, 2022.   
  • HDFC Life Insurance Company has launched KlarifyLife, a digital education and awareness initiative, to simplify life insurance.
  • Coal India is concentrating its efforts to meet the projected demand of the power sector on priority basis.
  • Power Grid Corporation of India has received approval for investment of Rs 821.29 in five transmission projects.
News Analysis