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NSE Intra-day chart (27 April 2022)
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Market Commentary 28 April 2022
Benchmarks likely to get cautious start of F&O expiry session


Indian equity benchmarks ended lower by around a percent on Wednesday amid a global sell-off, triggered by concerns about world economic growth. All sectors were in the red, with Power, Utilities and Telecom shares being the biggest draggers. Key gauges made a negative start and showed weakness throughout the session, as traders were cautious with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Asia and Pacific Department's Acting Director Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf stating that the surge in oil prices due to the Ukrainian war has pushed up inflation in India, which needs monetary tightening and measures to address structural weaknesses to improve growth potential. Sentiments remained down-beat with a private report stating that the pandemic seems to have dented the prospects of beneficiaries hoping to enrol in minority schemes. While the fund utilisation under minority schemes had reached its peak in 2019-20, with the government spending Rs 6,575 crore, it has since declined. Indices continued to show a sluggish trend in late afternoon session as India reports 2,927 fresh cases and 2,252 recoveries, in the last 24 hours. Besides, stock exchange data showed foreign institutional investors continued their selling spree, offloading shares worth Rs 1,174.05 crore on Tuesday. Market participants largely overlooked CBDT Chairman J B Mohapatra's statement that the net direct tax collection has registered a whopping 49.02 per cent growth to over Rs 14.09 lakh crore in the 2021-22 fiscal as the country's economy bounced back after being hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Traders also paid no heed towards private report stated that as the country recovers from the pandemic, the retail industry has resumed its growth trajectory and is likely to witness 10 per cent annual growth to reach approximately $2 trillion by 2032. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 537.22 points or 0.94% to 56,819.39 and the CNX Nifty was down by 162.40 points or 0.94% to 17,038.40.


The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday as stocks attempted to rebound from a technology-led sell-off in April. Microsoft gained nearly 5 percent after the software giant reported better than expected quarterly results and provided upbeat guidance. Microsoft reported earnings per share of $2.22 for the third-quarter, compared to street expectations of $2.19. The company has forecast double-digit revenue growth for the next fiscal year, driven by demand for cloud computing services. Meanwhile , Visa (V) shares rallied more than 6 percent after the payments processor reported better-than-expected quarterly results and said it expected further growth as spending on travel picks up pace. However, gains remained limited as the mood remained cautious amid concerns about inflation and looming interest rate hikes. On the economic data front, pending home sales in the US decreased for the fifth straight month in March, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR said its pending home sales slumped by 1.2 percent to 103.7 in March after plunging by 4.0 percent to a revised 105.0 in February. Street had expected pending home sales to tumble by 1.6 percent. A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale. The continued decrease in pending home sales came as pending home sales in the Midwest plummeted by 6.1 percent. Pending home sales in the South also fell by 0.9 percent and pending sales in the West edged down by 0.2 percent, while pending sales in the Northeast spiked by 4.0 percent.


Crude oil futures ended marginally higher on Wednesday despite a soaring US dollar, which makes barrels more expensive and coronavirus outbreaks in China clouded the economic outlook in the world's biggest importer of crude oil. However, upside remained capped as data released by US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories rose by 700,000 barrels in the week ended April 22. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery added $0.32 or 0.3 percent to settle at $102.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery gained $0.14 or 0.13 percent to settle at $104.75 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee recouped early losses and settled almost flat against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday on expectations of higher dollar inflows. Some support also came as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman assured investors that the government will address any possible pain points to encourage investments in the country. However, a lackluster trend in domestic equities and the strength of the greenback in the overseas market weighed on the local unit. On the global front, amid slow growth prospects and imminent US Fed interest rate hike, the US dollar climbed to its highest level on Wednesday since the early pandemic and was on its way to posting its best month since 2015, as high volatility in global markets drove investor appetite from riskier assets like equities to safe-havens. Finally, the rupee ended at 76.57 (Provisional), weaker by 1 paise from its previous close of 76.56 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7522.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 7417.79 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 270.00 crore against gross selling of Rs 708.29 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.71 crore against gross selling of Rs 6.64 crore.


The US markets ended mostly in green on Wednesday led by a late rally in technology shares, after Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings. Asian markets are trading higher on Thursday tracking mild gains on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets tumbled nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday due to profit-booking in banking, financial, and IT stocks after a recent rally. Today, the markets are likely to make cautious start amid likely volatility on account of the monthly F&O expiry. Some support may come with an authoritative seasonal forecast from the South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum report that normal to above normal rainfall is most likely during the 2022 southwest monsoon season (June-September) over most parts of South Asia. Traders may take note of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India will take a considerate decision on regulation around the virtual currency. Meanwhile, ahead of the end of five-year assured compensation period on June 30, the Centre acknowledged that an amount of Rs 78,704 crore was yet to be released to the state governments towards fully compensating them for their Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue shortfall for the financial year 2021-22. Insurance industry stocks will be in limelight with ICRA's report that general insurance industry's gross direct premium income (GDPI) is expected to grow by 10-12 per cent in the current fiscal on account of rising awareness of medical insurance and improvement in economic activity. There will be some buzz in the metal stocks with Minister of Steel Faggan Singh Kulaste stating that India exported 13.5 million tonne (MT) of finished steel valuing Rs 1 lakh crore in the last financial year. India's finished steel exports were at 10.78 million tonne in 2020-21. Fertilizer industry stocks will be in focus as the government said the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) rates for phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilisers for the Kharif season (April-September, 2022) will be Rs 60,939 crore, as against Rs 57,150 crore for the whole of last year. The increase in subsidy is meant to insulate farmers from the increases in the prices of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) and other non-urea nutrients in the global markets. There will be some reaction in retail industry stocks with a BCG-RAI report stating that the retail industry has resumed its growth trajectory and is likely to witness 10 per cent annual growth to reach approximately $2 trillion by 2032 as the country recovers from the pandemic.


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