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NSE Intra-day chart (25 February 2022)
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Market Commentary 28 February 2022
Markets likely to get cautious start amid mixed global cues


Recouping half of their yesterday's losses, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Friday's trade with a gain of around two and a half percentage points, as traders wend for bargain hunting as U.S. President Joe Biden hit back at Russia with harsh sanctions after it attacked Ukraine. Markets started the day with a gap up opening and traded with traction throughout the day amid buying across the sectors, finishing near intraday high levels. Sentiments remained up-beat as traders took support with report that the heightened geopolitical tensions and their possible impact on global growth have led investors to believe that US Federal Reserve will ton down its aggressive interest rate hike pitch going ahead. Besides, US President Joe Biden's announcement that the country is working with allies on a release of oil from strategic reserves after crude prices shot up, too aided sentiments. Sentiments also got support with report that Moody's Investors Service upgraded its financial year 2022-2023 (FY23) growth forecast for the Indian economy to 8.4 per cent from the earlier estimated 7.9 per cent as the country moves to normalcy, post the removal Covid-19 restrictions. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings maintained its earlier projection of 10.3 percent growth in FY23 compared to 8.4 percent estimated for FY22. Traders shrugged off report that India has received total foreign direct investment (FDI) of $60.3 billion during April to December period of 2021-22 which is 10.6 per cent lower compared to the $67.5 billion of FDI received in the same period of 2020-21. Traders also took note of Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran's statement that the Indian economy is now poised for recovery but high crude oil price is a cause for concern. Besides, the income tax department said it has issued refunds of close to Rs 1.83 lakh crore to more than 2.07 crore taxpayers so far this fiscal. This includes 1.67 crore refunds of the 2020-21 fiscal ended March 31, 2021, amounting to Rs 33,818.97 crore. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 1328.61 points or 2.44% to 55,858.52 and the CNX Nifty was up by 410.45 points or 2.53% to 16,658.40.


The US markets ended sharply higher on Friday as traders continued to pick up stocks at relatively reduced levels following the sell-off seen in recent sessions. The major averages showed a notable rebound from multi-month intraday lows during trading on Thursday but remain well off their recent highs. Concerns about the eventual Russian invasion of Ukraine weighed on the markets late last week. While the U.S. and its allies have imposed severe sanctions on Russia in response to the attack, the measures are not seen as crippling as some had feared. The West's seeming unwillingness to target Russia's energy sector has helped ease worries about a spike in oil and gas prices fueling further inflation. After reaching a high above $100 a barrel in the previous session, crude for April delivery tumbled $1.22 to $91.59 a barrel. Reports that Russia is prepared to send a delegation to Belarusian capital Minsk for talks about Ukraine also contributed to the positive sentiment. Russia's apparent willingness to hold talks comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled we has open to discussing Ukraine's neutral status.


Crude oil futures settled lower on Friday as investors continued to monitor Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a day after crude briefly topped the $100-a-barrel threshold for the first time in over seven years. Reports said Russia was in favor of talks with Ukraine pressured prices, though few details were available and traders remained cautious. Meanwhile. A report from Baker Hughes today showed the rigs count in the U.S. rose by 2 to 522 in the week to February 25. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery fell $1.22 or 1.3 percent to settle at $91.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for April delivery declined $1.15 or 1.2 percent to settle at $97.93 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended considerably higher supported by a retreat in oil prices and a rebound in domestic equities, tracking the increase in global risk appetite. Investors' optimism was driven by the coordinated sanctions against Russia that targeted its banks, which helped a tentative rebound in global stocks. Sentiments were also upbeat as Moody's Investors Service upgraded its financial year 2022-2023 (FY23) growth forecast for the Indian economy to 8.4 per cent from the earlier estimated 7.9 per cent as the country moves to normalcy, post the removal Covid-19 restrictions. Traders took note of report that India is exploring ways to set up a rupee payment mechanism for trade with Russia to soften the blow on New Delhi of Western sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. On the global front, dollar retreated against most currencies, including the euro, on Friday, as markets walked back some of the tumultuous moves from the previous day when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent investors scrambling. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.33, stronger by 27 paise from its previous close of 75.60 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9191.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 15878.60 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 290.25 crore against gross sales of Rs 321.37 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 16.27 crore against gross selling of Rs 9.09 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Friday as investors flocked to buy beaten down shares. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday as investors monitor the Russia-Ukraine crisis and related sanctions. Indian markets made a comeback on Friday, recouping half of the previous day's losses, amid cautious gains across global markets as investors assessed the impact of Western sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. Today, markets are likely to make cautious start of the holiday shortened week following mixed cues from Asian peers. The market will also be tracking global developments on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on the global economy including that of India. Traders will be concerned as domestic traders' body -- the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) said the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to hit badly the Indian economy and the trade to a significant extent. CAIT said the impact will jeopardise efforts to recover the domestic trade from the COVID-19 pandemic. Some cautiousness may come with a private report stating that foreign direct investment (FDI) equity inflows into India in the third quarter of FY22 shrank almost 44% to $12 billion from $21.46 billion in the year-ago period. Also, continuing the selling streak for the fifth consecutive month, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out as much as Rs 35,506 crore out of the Indian markets in February. However, some support may come later in the day as Arvind Panagariya former vice-chairman of NITI Aayog said India is poised to grow at 7-8% over the next decade and be the third largest economy by 2030 on the back of four big reforms by the government. This could even go up to 9-10% with increasing the size and scale of operation and doing away with protectionism. Besides, the RBI said the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.762 billion to $632.952 billion for the week ended February 18 on a healthy rise in the value of gold reserves and core currency assets. Traders may take note of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that India's post-pandemic economic recovery will be driven by the transition to green energy. Separately, she also said India is at a stage where growth and the focus on development have got to be strengthened from every side and intellectual property rights (IPRs) have an important role in it. There will be some buzz in the pharma stocks with private report that the pharmaceutical sector in the country can grow to $130 billion by 2030. Metal stocks will be in focus as Union Steel Minister Ram Chandra Prasad Singh said the consumption of steel will continue to rise due to various programmes and schemes of the government and stressed that a mission to develop the secondary steel sector is in the making. There will be some reaction in infrastructure industry stocks with government data showing that as many as 443 infrastructure projects, each entailing investment of Rs 150 crore or more, have been hit by cost overruns totalling more than Rs 4.45 lakh crore.


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  • TCS in partnership with University of Kashmir has launched a program to improve employability skills of students in Kashmir, under its Corporate Social Responsibility initiative. 
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