Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
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Market Commentary 26 May 2022
Benchmarks to open higher tracking overnight gains on Wall Street

 

Extending the losing run to the third consecutive day, Indian equity benchmarks ended with losses of over half percent on Wednesday, dragged by heavy selling pressure in IT, Realty and Industrials stocks. Benchmark indices opened in green as traders took some support with Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal's statement that India's exports rose to a record high of $421.8 billion during the financial year ended March 2022 despite the COVID-19 pandemic and global supply chain disruption and the shipment may surge to $1 trillion by 2030. However, key gauges failed to hold on to the gains and slipped into red terrain in late morning session, as traders turned cautious with Former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu's statement that even though the fundamentals of the Indian economy are strong, the rise in divisiveness and polarisation in the country is damaging the foundations of the nation's growth. Markets extended losses in late afternoon deals, as some pessimism also came in with report that India was ranked at the 54th place in a global travel and tourism development index, down from 46th in 2019, but still remained on the top within South Asia. Traders also took a note EEPC India stating that export of engineering goods to CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine fell the most year-on-year during April 2022, while that to North America registered the highest growth during this period. As per the region-wise data, exports to CIS countries slumped to $25.1 million in April 2022 from $90 million in the same month last year. Also, surging global crude prices and persistent foreign capital outflows weighed on investor' mood. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the capital market on Tuesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 2,393.45 crore, exchange data showed. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 303.35 points or 0.56% to 53,749.26 and the CNX Nifty was down by 99.35 points or 0.62% to 16,025.80.  

 

The US markets ended sharply higher on Wednesday as the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting offered few surprises, although the central bank indicated it intends to move expeditiously to a more neutral monetary policy stance. The minutes revealed the Fed plans to use both interest rate increases and reductions in the size of its balance sheet to achieve a neutral posture. At the meeting, the Fed decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 0.75 to 1.0 percent, marking the biggest rate hike since May 2000. The central bank also decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1. The minutes of the meeting showed most participants agreed additional 50 basis point increases would likely be appropriate at the next couple of meetings. On the sectoral front, Housing stocks turned in some of the market's best performances on the day, with the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index surging by 3.1 percent. Retail stocks also turned in a strong performance on the day, driving the Dow Jones US Retail Index up by 2.3 percent. The rebound came after index ended Tuesday's trading at a two-year closing low. On the economic data front, the Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose by 0.4 percent in April after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.6 percent in March. Street had expected durable goods orders to advance by 0.6 percent compared to the 1.1 percent jump that had been reported for the previous month. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged up by 0.3 percent in April after surging by 1.1 percent in March. Ex-transportation orders were also expected to increase by 0.6 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday after official data showed a fall in US crude and gasoline inventories. Data released by Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude stockpiles dropped by 1.019 million barrels in the US last week. Gasoline inventories too dropped in the week, falling by 0.482 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles increased by 1.657 million barrels. However, the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday said U.S. crude inventories rose 567,000 barrels last week. Benchmark crude oil futures for July delivery rose 56 cents or 0.5% percent to settle at $110.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for July delivery added 47 cents or 0.4 percent to settle at $114.03 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Wednesday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. Traders got some solace as country's exports rose by 21.1 percent to $23.7 billion during May 1-21, on account of healthy growth in various sectors, such as petroleum products, engineering, and electronic goods. However, upside remain limited as Former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu said that even though the fundamentals of the Indian economy are strong, the rise in divisiveness and polarisation in the country is damaging the foundations of the nation's growth. On the global front, dollar snapped a two-day losing streak on Wednesday as treasury yields paused recent falls, its gain taking the edge off the euro which had been lifted earlier by a hawkish central bank message. Finally, the rupee ended at 77.55 (Provisional), stronger by 2 paise from its previous close of 77.57 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8032.35 crore against gross selling of Rs 10022.45 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 193.35 crore against gross selling of Rs 215.93 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 5.93 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday as Fed minutes signaled flexibility on rate hikes. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday as persistent concerns over global growth sapped confidence. Indian markets continued to gyrate around the flat line before finishing in the red for a third straight session on Wednesday. Weakness in IT, metal and auto scrips pulled the headline indices lower. Today, the start of the F&O series expiry session is likely to be flat-to-positive tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Some support will come with a private report that India's economy is expected to have grown at 9.2 per cent in the fiscal ended March 2022, after having contracted by 7.3 per cent in the previous financial year, aided by resilience in the rural economy, uptick in bank credit and rising GST collections. Traders may take note of report that Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal strongly defended the government's decision to control wheat and sugar exports, saying the steps were necessary keeping in mind the domestic requirements and a need to keep hoarders and speculators in check who could have exploited vulnerable poor nations by selling them the commodities at higher prices. However, traders may be concerned with provisional data available on the NSE showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net sold shares worth Rs 1,803.06 crore on May 25. Some cautiousness may come with a private report that the current price situation leaves hardly any scope for rationalisation of GST rates on goods and services. There will be some buzz in the edible oil industry stocks with a private report that India's palm oil imports could drop by nearly a fifth as now cheaper soyoil takes more market share, following Indonesia's curbs on palm oil exports and New Delhi allowing duty-free imports of soyoil. Power stocks will be in focus with report that the Ministry of Power notified that it is working on a scheme to liquidate the past dues of power distribution companies (discoms) to provide relief to the entire value chain in the power sector which has been reeling under the pressure of non-payment. There will be some reaction in jewelry industry stocks as the RBI came up with norms for facilitating physical import of gold through India International Bullion Exchange IFSC (IIBX) or similar authorised exchange by Qualified Jewellers in India. There will be some result announcements to keep the markets in action.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

16,025.80

15,947.39

16,163.79

BSE Sensex

53,749.26

53,495.09

54,191.52

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

NTPC

199.26

152.60

148.95

154.70

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

193.66

152.80

149.19

154.84

ITC

152.88

272.55

270.74

274.14

Tata Motors

135.40

417.25

410.80

426.35

State Bank of India

127.28

453.45

448.85

461.25

 

  • JSW Steel is planning to raise long term funds, including but not limited to, QIP of permissible securities, subject to such regulatory/statutory approvals as may be required. 
  • Adani Ports & SEZ has reported 21.78% fall in its consolidated net profit at Rs 1033.02 crore for Q4FY22 as compared to Rs 1320.69 crore for Q4FY21. 
  • M&M has entered into partnership with Repos Energy. 
  • Wipro and Informatica entered into partnership to bring cloud-based data and analytics to market with Wipro FullStride Cloud Services data platform.
News Analysis