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NSE Intra-day chart (25 April 2022)
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Market Commentary 26 April 2022
Benchmarks to get optimistic start tracking bounce back in global peers

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for a second straight day on Monday, following weak trade in Asian market peers as global sell-off triggered by aggressive US Fed tightening and China Covid fears. The markets had a gap down opening and showed weakness throughout the session, as a private report cut India's 2022-23 economic growth forecast by 70 basis points to 7 percent, citing slowing global growth due to high commodity prices, and weak local demand because of energy price hikes, inflationary pressures and a struggling labour market. Some cautiousness also came as the Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy stated that India's labour force fell by 38 lakhs in the month of March to the lowest level in the last eight months, comprising a decline in the count of both employed and unemployed. During the afternoon session, markets traded at day's low as sentiments were fragile with the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) in its latest data has showed that India's crude oil import bill nearly doubled to $119 billion in the fiscal year that ended on March 31, as energy prices soared globally following the return of demand and war in Ukraine. Traders overlooked a survey by economic think-tank NCAER stating that business confidence index (BCI) improved in the January-March period of this year (Q4FY22) and would remain buoyant in the coming months. It said the BCI increased for the third consecutive quarter by 14.9 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis from 124.4 points in October-December period of 2021-22 to 142.9 points in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the GST Council has not sought views from states on hiking tax rates. They said that the panel of ministers looking into GST rate rationalisation is yet to submit its report to the GST Council. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 617.26 points or 1.08% to 56,579.89 and the CNX Nifty was down by 218.00 points or 1.27% to 16,953.95.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday as technology names like Microsoft rallied amid falling interest rates. Concerns about a global economic slowdown amid Covid outbreaks in China sent interest rates lower. The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to the 2.8% level. Tech shares rebounded as rates fell, providing support to the major averages. Microsoft rose 2.4%, the second-biggest gainer on the Dow. Google-parent Alphabet also gained nearly 2.9%, and Facebook-parent Meta added about 1.6% ahead of quarterly earnings reports slated for later this week. Twitter jumped roughly 5.7% after the social media company announced it accepted billionaire Elon Musk's buyout deal valued at about $44 billion. However, upside remained capped as trading activity remained somewhat subdued with a lack of major US economic data likely to keep some traders on the sidelines. On the sectoral indices, housing stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the trading session, driving the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index up by 2.3 percent. Significant strength also emerged among semiconductor stocks, as reflected by the 1.8 percent gain posted by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Networking, pharmaceutical and computer hardware stocks also turned in strong performances on the day, while energy stocks moved sharply lower along with the price of crude oil.

 

Crude oil futures ended deeply lower on Monday, extending their previous session's losses, as a resurgence in Covid cases in China raised concerns about energy demand. Covid cases are on the rise in Shanghai with the city reporting over 19,000 new infections in the last 24 hours. Also, reports indicate a possibility of Beijing imposing fresh lockdown measures in several areas to curb the spread of the virus. Further, a strong US dollar amid rising prospects of a series of sharp interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve weighed as well on crude oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery fell $3.53 or $3.53 percent to settle at $98.54 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery lost $4.33 or 4.1 percent to settle at $102.32 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Continuing previous session drubbing, Indian rupee ended weaker against dollar on Monday due to fresh buying of the American currency by banks and importers. Sentiments were fragile as India's crude oil import bill nearly doubled to $119 billion in the fiscal year that ended on March 31, as energy prices soared globally following the return of demand and war in Ukraine. Additional pressure came in as private report cut India's 2022-23 economic growth forecast by 70 basis points to 7 percent, citing slowing global growth due to high commodity prices, and weak local demand because of energy price hikes, inflationary pressures and a struggling labour market. Besides, downfall in equity markets also dented traders' sentiments. On the global front, dollar climbed to a two-year high versus its rivals on Monday and was on track for its single biggest daily gain in more than six weeks as a wave of risk aversion swept through global markets, boosting the greenback's safe haven appeal. Finally, the rupee ended at 76.64 (Provisional), weaker by 22 paise from its previous close of 76.42 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7841.61 crore against gross selling of Rs 9258.41 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 221.51 crore against gross sales of Rs 882.62 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 114.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 9.10 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday with the technology stocks-heavy Nasdaq Composite ending sharply higher after Twitter agreed to be bought by billionaire Elon Musk. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Tuesday tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Indian markets extended losses to a second straight session on Monday amid across-the-board selling, though gains in heavyweights such as ICICI Bank and the HDFC twins limited the downside. Today, markets are likely make optimistic start tracking a bounce back in global peers. Traders will be taking encouragement with CII President TV Narendran's statement that India's economy is expected to grow 7.5-8 per cent this fiscal year with exports playing a key role in the country's success story. However, he said the country needs to remain prepared for any fallout of next wave of COVID-19 pandemic, and the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Traders may take note of a private report that the government has begun discussions on bringing parity between long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax on debt, listed equities and unlisted equities. However, there may be some cautiousness with India Ratings' report that the ongoing headwinds like war-triggered inflation, rate tightening by RBI and weak rupee will lead to a Rs 60,000 crore increase in risky debt in FY23. Meanwhile, India and the EU will return to the negotiating table to start serious talks for a free trade agreement (FTA) in June after a gap of nine years. There will be some buzz in the chemical industry stocks as CRISIL Research projects the chemical industry's revenue to rise 14-17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in the current fiscal year (FY23), driven by better performance by specialty chemicals, followed by polymers and agrochemicals. Edible oil industry stocks will be in focus with private report that the top global palm oil producer Indonesia's plan to halt the export of the commodity from April 28 is heating up edible oil prices in the country. The prospect of a plunge in the largest imported edible oil to India is leading to a spike in prices of other edible oils as well. There will be some reaction in real estate industry stocks as India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said it expects housing prices to appreciate by 8 per cent this fiscal, mainly due to rise in demand from end users. Campus Activewear IPO (Initial Public Offering) is going to hit primary market today and the public issue worth Rs 1400 crore will remain open for subscription till 28th April 2022. Besides, the country's largest initial public offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) is likely to open on May 4. Investors awaited more of financial results from India Inc for cues.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

16,953.95

16,877.00

17,042.60

BSE Sensex

56,579.89

56,332.63

56,851.41

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ICICI Bank

354.17

754.95

745.24

763.44

Coal India

264.65

189.00

183.10

198.55

ITC

242.08

255.50

252.34

258.84

Tata Motors

147.29

427.30

421.64

434.49

State Bank of India

140.57

495.00

490.30

499.45

 

  • ICICI Bank has reported 57.98% rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 7,718.94 crore for the Q4FY22 as compared to Rs 4,886.16 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 
  • Tata Motors has hiked the prices of its passenger vehicles by an average of 1.1 percent with immediate effect. 
  • Tech Mahindra has been selected as the technology and digital transformation partner for Freemans Grattan Holdings. 
  • BPCL has joined hands with Automaker MG Motor India to strengthen EV charging infrastructure across the country.
News Analysis