Indian equity benchmarks ended
flat on Friday as cautious undertone prevailed as investors awaited earnings
results from heavyweights Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank for directional
cues. Markets made a cautious start and soon slipped into red terrain, as
traders got cautious after retail inflation for farm labour and rural workers
rose marginally to 7.01 percent and 6.94 percent, respectively, in March
compared to February this year, mainly due to higher prices of certain food
items. Some concerns also came as a report by Acuite Ratings stated that
India's economic activity is expected to decline and witness a lower growth
print in FY24 on the back of a buoyancy in the services sector, moderation in
inflation and the consistency in public sector capital expenditure. Markets
extended fall in afternoon session amid reports that GST evasion detection by
tax officers almost doubled year-on-year to over Rs 1.01 lakh crore in the just
concluded 2022-23 fiscal. Sentiments remained weak as minutes of this month's
Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting showed India's current rate tightening
cycle may not be over as more hikes could be warranted to align inflation
towards the central bank's medium term target of 4%. Adding to the pessimism,
National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed foreign institutional
investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 1,169.32 crore on April 20. However,
markets managed to cut all of their initial losses to settle flat, taking
support with rating agency ICRA stating that India's real GDP growth is likely
to have risen to 4.9% YoY in Q4 FY2023 from the provisional 4.4% in Q3 FY2023,
with the softening of commodity price pressures. Meanwhile, the retirement fund
body, Employees' Provident Fund Organisation's (EPFO) latest data report showed
that India created 1396185 new jobs in the month of February 2023 as against
revised figure of 1299220 in January 2023. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 22.71
points or 0.04% to 59,655.06 and the CNX Nifty was down by 0.40 points to
17,624.05.
The US markets ended higher on
Friday as S&P Global released data indicating a faster rise in business
activity at U.S.-based firms on the month of April. The headline S&P Global
Flash U.S. PMI Composite Output Index climbed to 53.5 in April from 52.3 in March,
signaling the quickest upturn in business activity since May 2022. Street had
expected the index to inch up to 52.8. The report also said the Flash U.S.
Services Business Activity also rose to a twelve-month high of 53.7 in April
from 52.6 in March, while the Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI crept up to 50.4
from 49.2, signaling the first improvement in operating conditions at goods
producers in six months. However, traders seemed reluctant to make significant
moves as they looked for additional clarity about the outlook for the markets
following the volatility seen in recent session. Traders have been looking
ahead to several key economic reports due be released next week, including the
Commerce Department's report on personal income and spending. The report
includes a reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve and
could impact the outlook for interest rates ahead of the next Fed meeting the
following week. On the sectoral front, Pharmaceutical stocks showed a strong
move to the upside on the day, driving the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index up by
1.4 percent to a record closing high. Notable strength was also visible among
retail stocks, as reflected by the 1.3 percent gain posted by the Dow Jones
U.S. Retail Index. On the other hand, steel stocks moved sharply lower over the
course of the session, dragging the NYSE Arca Steel Index down by 2.4 percent.
Crude oil futures ended higher on
Friday on strong economic data in Britain. The U.K. private sector expanded for
the third successive month in April to the strongest level in a year, driven by
a sharp upturn in the services economy. However, concerns about the U.S.
economic outlook and interest rate uncertainty limited the uptick in oil
prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery rose $0.50 or 0.7 percent
to settle at $77.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude
for June delivery surged $0.56 or 0.69 percent to settle at $81.66 a barrel on
London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Indian rupee ended higher for the
second consecutive day on Friday, led by continued selling of the US currency
by banks and exporters. Traders took some support with rating agency ICRA
stating that India's real GDP growth is likely to have risen to 4.9% YoY in Q4
FY2023 from the provisional 4.4% in Q3 FY2023, with the softening of commodity
price pressures. Some support also came as the Retirement fund body, Employees'
Provident Fund Organisation's (EPFO) latest data report showed that India
created 1396185 new jobs in the month of February 2023 as against revised
figure of 1299220 in January 2023. Downward movement of crude oil prices also
supported the local unit. On the global front, the dollar headed for its first
weekly gain in nearly two months on Friday as investors raised their bets that
the Federal Reserve will increase rates in May, while a surprising recovery in
the euro zone economy in April underpinned the euro. Finally, the rupee ended
at 82.08 (Provisional), stronger by 9 paise from its previous close of 82.17 on
Thursday.
The FIIs as per Friday's data
were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity
segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5871.01 crore against gross selling of Rs
6838.60 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1965.20
crore against gross selling of Rs 426.10 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment,
the gross buying was of Rs 3.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 3.10 crore.
The US markets ended higher on
Friday amid mixed earnings results and recession fears. Asian markets are
trading mostly in red on Monday as investors await cues from more U.S. earnings
and the policy announcements by the U.S. Fed and Bank of England in early May.
Indian markets consolidated in a narrow range and ended flat on Friday after
ITC and TCS logged strong gains even as auto, metal and realty stocks slid amid
selling pressure. Today, markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid
mixed global cues. Investors' assessment of Reliance Industries and ICICI
Bank's January-March (Q4) results will guide the market direction. Traders will
be taking encouragement with a private report that starting FY24 on a positive
note, Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been buyers throughout the
trading sessions in April month so far. On a reasonable valuation of stocks,
they invested Rs 8,643 crore in Indian equities. Besides, according to the RBI
data, India's forex reserves rose by $1.657 billion to $586.412 billion as of
April 14, marking their second consecutive week of increase. Some support will
come as Union minister Piyush Goyal said the world is now looking up to India
and its industries and this is the right time for entrepreneurs and industry
players to grasp the opportunity and grow exports. Separately, Commerce and
Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has expressed hope that traders will soon be
able to settle foreign trade in the rupee currency as several banks from
different countries are opening special Vostro accounts with Indian banks.
Meanwhile, India has climbed six places on the World Bank's Logistic
Performance Index (LPI) 2023, now ranking 38th in the 139 countries index, as a
result of significant investments in both soft and hard infrastructure as well
as technology. Traders may take note of a private report that with India
surpassing China to become the world's most populous country with 1.428 billion
people, it needs to grow an annual pace of 8 percent for the next three decades
to ensure jobs for people of working age.
Support
and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
17,624.05
|
17,564.26
|
17,673.51
|
BSE
Sensex
|
59,655.06
|
59,451.46
|
59,820.01
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Tata
Steel
|
376.39
|
106.10
|
104.94
|
107.69
|
ICICI
Bank
|
295.78
|
887.60
|
879.76
|
898.06
|
State
Bank of India
|
225.99
|
542.30
|
539.20
|
545.90
|
Axis
Bank
|
155.21
|
860.70
|
854.19
|
870.54
|
ITC
|
142.52
|
408.00
|
401.70
|
411.65
|
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