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NSE Intra-day chart (21 January 2022)
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Market Commentary 24 January 2022
Benchmarks likely to make gap-down opening on Monday

 

Indian equity benchmarks closed over half a percent lower but off Friday's intra-day lows, extending the sell-off for the fourth day. The benchmark indices opened on a sharply negative note in tandem with the weak sentiment across the global markets. Traders remained cautious as the government data showed that retail inflation for farm and rural workers rose to 4.78 percent and 5.03 percent respectively in December 2021, mainly due to higher price of certain food items. Some concern also came with domestic rating agency ICRA's report stated that the recent surge in fresh Covid infections as well as subsequent localised lockdowns emanating from Omicron spread are likely to shave off around 100 bps of growth in toll collections in fiscal year 2021-22. However, the key indices made a sharp recovery in afternoon trade, as traders took some solace after the payroll data of the Employees' Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) showed at least 8,27, 979 people joined formal work for the first time in November, showing a marginal uptick in the formal sector job creation over the month-ago period. Adding some optimism, with a view to boost economic activities slowed down due to the impact of COVID-19, the Finance Ministry has relaxed spending norms for the fourth quarter in a bid to spur capital expenditure. But, key gauges failed to hold recovery and ended lower, as some anxiety remained among traders with a private report stated that institutional investments in real estate fell 81 per cent at $670 million during the December quarter because of lower inflow in office assets. Besides, persistent selling by FIIs weighted down on the markets. As per provisional data available on NSE, Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 4,679.84 crore on January 20. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 427.44 points or 0.72% to 59,037.18 and the CNX Nifty was down by 139.85 points or 0.79% to 17,617.15.

 

The US markets ended significantly lower on Friday with Nasdaq falling around 3 per cent amid weak earnings report from Netflix, which set off a cascade of selling pressure among the other markets. Surging bond prices also drove the markets lower, exacerbating interest rate concerns; most of the market participants believe a rate hike of at least 25 basis points from the FOMC is imminent in March. Also on Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen offered her view that U.S. economic policy improves on Reagan-era supply-side economics. Yellen said Modern supply-side economics seeks to spur economic growth by both boosting labor supply and raising productivity, while reducing inequality and environmental damage. On the economic front, the Conference Board's leading economic index ticked slightly higher and was in line with expectations. A gauge of future U.S. economic activity increased solidly in December, suggesting the expansion would continue despite challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and anticipated interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve to tame high inflation. The Conference Board said its Leading Economic Index rose 0.8% last month after advancing 0.7% in November. The Conference Board estimated that gross domestic product growth would slow to a 2.2% annualized rate in the first quarter. It is forecasting growth of 3.5% this year.

 

Extending their losses for second straight session, crude oil futures ended lower on Friday although they came up from session lows. Investors turned to profit booking after data showed a build-up in U.S. crude and fuel inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 515,000 barrels for the week ended Jan. 14. According to a poll conducted by S&P Global Platts, market participants had forecast a fall of 700,000 barrels. The report showed gasoline inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose by 5.9 million barrels to their highest since February 2021. The EIA also reported a slight decline in refinery runs, indicating lower demand for crude. Benchmark crude oil futures for February delivery fell 41 cents or 0.5 percent to settle at $85.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery lost 49 cents or nearly 0.6 percent to settle at $87.89 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended higher against the American currency on Friday, due to selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Traders took some solace as India is inching toward a major milestone by opening its $1 trillion government bond market to more international investors, one of the most ambitious attempts to attract foreign inflows since the country liberalized its economy three decades ago. However, upside remain capped as government's data showed that retail inflation for farm and rural workers rose to 4.78 percent and 5.03 percent respectively in December 2021, mainly due to higher price of certain food items. On the global front, dollar was on track for its best week in a month against major rivals on Friday, as the world's reserve currency held its ground amid a selloff of riskier assets across markets. Finally, the rupee ended 74.43 (Provisional), stronger by 8 paise from its previous close of 74.51 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7972.05 crore against gross selling of Rs 12566.53 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 632.45 crore with gross sales of Rs 589.46 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.00 crore against gross selling of Rs 9.99 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Friday with Nasdaq posting its biggest weekly loss since March 2020 amid inflation concerns and fears of monetary tightening. Asian markets are trading in red on Monday with the Federal Reserve expected to confirm it will soon start draining the massive liquidity that has fuelled the huge gains in growth stocks in recent years. Indian markets ended a volatile session lower on Friday, extending losses to a fourth straight day. Weakness across most sectors, with IT, financial and metal stocks being the worst hit, pulled the headline indices lower. Today, the markets are likely to continue their sluggish trend with gap-down opening tracking weak global cues. Continued selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) is likely to weight on domestic markets, as per provisional data available on the NSE, FIIs net sold shares worth Rs 3,148.58 crore. There will be some cautiousness as former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said the Indian economy has some bright spots and a number of very dark stains and the government should target its spending carefully so that there are no huge deficits. Rajan also said the government needs to do more to prevent a K-shaped recovery of the economy hit by the coronavirus pandemic. However, some support may come later in the day as DGFT official Amiya Chandra said India has set up a target of $500 billion exports for the 2022-23 fiscal, contending that the COVID-19 pandemic has taught the country to reimagine world trade. In December 2021, exports stood at $37.8 billion, the highest-ever for any month. Besides, the Services Export Promotion Council (SEPC) looks to set an export target of $300 billion for 2022-23 as it expects resumption of regular international travels and other business activities in the coming time. Gem and jewellery industry stocks will be in focus as the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council said India's gem and jewellery exports during December 2021 grew 29.49 per cent to $3,040.92 million (Rs 22,914.6 crore) as compared to $2,348.44 million (Rs 16,712.46 crore) in December 2019 -- the pre-pandemic year. There will be some reaction in infrastructure industry stocks with report that as many as 445 infrastructure projects, each entailing investment of Rs 150 crore or more, have been hit by cost overruns totalling more than Rs 4.4 lakh crore. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation monitors infrastructure projects of Rs 150 crore and above. Aviation industry stocks will be in limelight as Icra in its report stated that hit by the third wave of the pandemic that led to massive cancellations of domestic flights and extension of the ban on scheduled international flights till the end of the next month, the airports are set to see a 10-percentage-point fall in their revenue recovery this fiscal to 52 per cent of the pre-pandemic level. Investors awaited more of quarterly earnings from India Inc for cues.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,617.15

17,499.46

17,721.21

BSE Sensex

59,037.18

58,662.19

59,370.89

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Power Grid Corporation of India

221.32

214.70

212.05

218.30

Tata Motors

179.46

504.85

494.79

514.39

State Bank of India

169.47

504.05

498.86

508.36

ITC

165.86

217.30

215.36

219.86

Coal India

144.66

158.95

156.54

162.34

 

  • M&M has teamed up with SAP to spearhead its digital transformation journey. 
  • UltraTech Cement has executed a SPA for acquiring 100% equity shares in National Limestone Company, subject to receipt of applicable regulatory approvals.
  • L&T's Heavy Engineering arm has dispatched six of the world's largest coke drums weighing 658 tons each for a refinery project in Mexico ordered by PTI Infraestructura de Desarrollo. 
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank has signed a MoU with GIFT SEZ for boosting financial services ecosystem at International Financial Services Centre at Gandhinagar.
News Analysis