Indian equity
benchmarks continued volatile streak for a third straight day and ended
marginally lower on Friday as investors assessed developments around the
Ukraine crisis and US Federal Reserve's policy tightening. Markets made weak
start, as traders remained cautious with Crisil Ratings' report stated that since
the introduction of new asset quality norms last November that brought in
shadow banks and housing financiers on par with banks, housing finance
companies' gross bad loans have gone up by 70 basis points (bps) even as their
portfolio quality has improved. However, key indices trimmed losses and were
trading in green in afternoon deals, as traders found some solace with rating
agency Icra stating that the government's ambitious production-linked incentive
(PLI) scheme will look to unlock manufacturing capacity as well as support in
attracting about Rs 4 lakh crore of capital expenditure over the next five
years. Some support also came as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has urged
multilateral financial institutions to increase funding especially to low and
middle income countries to prepare them to deal with pandemic situations in the
future. She said that low income and middle income countries do not have enough
resources and need global support to face challenges. But, key gauges failed to
hold gains and ended lower as some pessimism remained among trader with SBI's
research report- Ecowrap stated that country's gross domestic product (GDP) is
likely to grow at 5.8 per cent in the third quarter of fiscal 2022. It stated
As per SBI Nowcasting Model, the forecasted GDP growth for Q3 FY22 would be
5.8%, with a downward bias. The full year (FY22) GDP growth is now revised
downwards to 8.8% from our earlier estimate of 9.3%. Finally, the BSE Sensex
fell 59.04 points or 0.10% to 57,832.97 and the CNX Nifty was down by 28.30
points or 0.16% to 17,276.30.
The US markets extended their
previous session losses and ended sharply lower on Friday with the Dow ending
the session at its lowest closing level since early December. The sustained
weakness on Wall Street came amid lingering geopolitical concerns as the
Ukrainian government and Russian state-controlled media continued to exchanged
accusations of cease-fire violations in the eastern part of the country.
Reports that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State
Antony Blinken have agreed to meet in Europe next week had eased concerns about
an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, but traders remain wary. Traders may
have been reluctant to hold significant positions going into the long weekend
due to the Presidents Day holiday on Monday. Uncertainty about the outlook for
monetary policy also continued to weigh on the markets ahead of an anticipated
interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month. On the economic data
front, the National Association of Realtors released a report unexpectedly
showing a sharp increase in existing home sales in the month of January. NAR
said existing home sales spiked 6.7 percent to an annual rate of 6.50 million
in January after tumbling 3.8 percent to a revised rate of 6.09 million in
December. The substantial rebound surprised market participants, who had
expected existing home sales to slump by 1.3 percent to a rate of 6.10 million
from the 6.18 million originally reported for the previous month. With the unexpected
jump, existing home sales reached their highest annual rate since hitting 6.65
million in January of 2021. Meanwhile, a separate report released by the
Conference Board showed an unexpected pullback by its reading on leading U.S.
economic indicators. The Conference Board said its leading economic index fell
by 0.3 percent in January after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in
December. The dip came as a surprise to street, who had expected the index to
rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.8 percent increase originally reported
for the previous month.
Crude oil futures ended lower on
Friday amid slightly easing Ukraine tensions and signs of negotiations to
restore the Iran nuclear deal. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are expected to meet next week in Europe
over Ukraine and European security issues. A report from Baker Hughes said the
number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 4 to 520 this week. The
report said the total active rigs, including those drilling for natural gas,
climbed by 10 to 645. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery fell $0.69
or 0.36 percent to settle at $91.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. However, Brent crude for April delivery rose $0.57 or 0.6 percent to
settle at $93.54 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Rupee ended significantly higher
against dollar on fresh selling of dollar by bankers and exporters on Friday,
on hopes of a diplomatic solution to the East-West standoff over Ukraine. The
proposed US-Russia talks spurred optimism about the volatile geopolitical
situation in Ukraine. Sentiments were also upbeat as Finance Minister Nirmala
Sitharaman has urged multilateral financial institutions to increase funding
especially to low and middle income countries to prepare them to deal with
pandemic situations in the future. She said that low income and middle income
countries do not have enough resources and need global support to face
challenges. On the global front, Sterling edged higher versus the dollar on
Friday but was unchanged versus the euro, helped by better-than-expected UK
retail sales numbers. Finally, the rupee ended at 74.66 (Provisional), stronger
by 40 paise from its previous close of 75.06 on Thursday.
The FIIs as per Friday's data
were net sellers in equity segment and net buyers in debt segment. In equity
segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6173.73 crore against gross selling of Rs
6883.75 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 594.88
crore against gross sales of Rs 291.44 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the
gross buying was of Rs 46.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 33.74 crore.
The US markets ended lower on
Friday on rising worries over escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions and the
prospect of a tightened interest rate hike timeline from the Fed in response to
decades-high inflation. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday
though investors remained hopeful for a diplomatic solution to the
Russia-Ukraine standoff. Indian markets ended mildly lower on Friday, as
investors remained concerned about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and
sooner-than-anticipated hikes in key interest rates. Today, markets are likely
to start session on a negative note, amid weakness across global markets as
investors remained concerned about the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Traders will be
concerned with labour ministry's report that retail inflation for farm workers
and rural labourers rose to 5.49 per cent and 5.74 per cent, respectively in
January mainly due to higher prices of certain food items. Besides, a private
report stated that India's consumer price indexed inflation is expected to
moderate in February 2022 from the levels in January. There will be some
cautiousness as the RBI data showed the country's foreign exchange reserves
declined by $1.763 billion to $630.19 billion in the week ended on February 11.
However, some respite may come later in the day as Crisil Research said India's
industrial activity is expected to gather pace in the coming months owing to a
gradual pick-up in consumption as well as investment demand. It said while
there was an improvement in the momentum i.e., sequential or on-month movement
of industrial activity in December - likely reflecting some easing of raw
material supply disruption - it was not very robust. Some support may also come
as revising the outlook on state finances to improving in FY23 from neutral,
India Ratings expects the aggregate fiscal deficit of the states to come in at
3.6 per cent of their gross domestic product from 3.5 per cent in FY22 on the
back of robust revenue growth. The agency had earlier forecast the fiscal
deficit of the states to print in at 4.1 per cent. The upward revision is due
to the better-than-expected growth in revenue receipts and higher growth in the
nominal GDP in FY22. There will be some buzz in the coal industry stocks as the
government plans to implement new technologies and build digital infrastructure
to support current and future coal mines operations, a move that would reduce
the country's dependency on imports. Telecom companies stocks will be in focus
as the government's revenue collection from telecom services will be
significantly higher than the projection of Rs 52,806.36 crore made in the
union budget after adding the collection from the proposed spectrum auction.
There will be some reaction in leather indusrty stocks as Sanjay Leekha
Chairman of the Council For Leather Exports (CLE) said the country's leather
and footwear exports are expected cross $6 billion (about Rs 44,800 crore) in
2022-23 on account of increasing demand in the US and new markets such as
Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
17,276.30
|
17,203.40
|
17,365.00
|
BSE
Sensex
|
57,832.97
|
57,489.13
|
58,176.09
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Coal India
|
237.40
|
167.30
|
163.85
|
169.50
|
Tata Motors
|
154.76
|
493.45
|
489.09
|
500.24
|
State Bank of India
|
151.11
|
515.00
|
509.76
|
520.56
|
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation
|
118.29
|
168.00
|
165.89
|
170.94
|
Power Grid Corporation of India
|
109.50
|
195.90
|
194.05
|
198.95
|
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