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NSE Intra-day chart (19 April 2022)
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Market Commentary 20 April 2022
Markets likely to open in green tracking positive global cues


Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for a fifth straight day on Tuesday, dragged by heavy selling pressure in IT, FMCG and TECK stocks. The domestic indices fluctuated between gains and losses throughout the day before plunging sharply in late deals. Markets made positive start but soon turned volatile, as traders turned cautious after an Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article has flagged risks of disruptive spillovers from geopolitical hostilities and said India faces these challenges from a position of strength built on broadened vaccine coverage, financial sector resilience and robust exports and remittances and fiscal reprioritisation to spur capital spending on infrastructure. Some concerns also came as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the debt piled on by the private sector during the coronavirus pandemic could lower growth for emerging markets by 1.3 percent over three years. However, markets managed to trade in green in late morning deals, taking support from the commerce department's preliminary data showing that India exported goods worth $18.79 billion during the first two weeks of April, up 37 per cent compared to the same period last year, as external demand continued to remain robust. Excluding petroleum products, the growth in this period was 23.64 per cent over the same period of 2021-22. Some support also came as working paper of the World Bank stated that extreme poverty in India declined by 12.3 percentage points between 2011 and 2019, with rural areas doing better than urban centres. But, a sudden sell-off during the fag-end of the session drove the markets down. Weaker quarterly corporate earnings, ongoing Russia-Ukraine spat, and high inflation worries also dented investor sentiment.  Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 703.59 points or 1.23% to 56,463.15 and the CNX Nifty was down by 215.00 points or 1.25% to 16,958.65.


The US markets ended higher on Tuesday regaining ground following recent weakness. The rally on markets have partly reflected bargain hunting after the modest drop seen on Monday dragged the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 down to their lowest closing levels in a month. Traders also reacted positively to some of the latest earnings news, with Hasbro posting a strong gain after the toy maker reported first quarter earnings that missed street estimates but raised its full-year profit forecast. Shares of Johnson & Johnson also showed a strong move to the upside after the healthcare giant reported better than expected first quarter earnings. On the sectoral front, Housing stocks moved sharply higher following the upbeat housing starts data, driving the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index up by 3.4 percent. Substantial strength was also visible among airline stocks, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index soaring by 3.2 percent to its best closing level in almost two months. On the economic data front, new residential construction in the U.S. expectedly saw modest growth in the month of March, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. The report showed housing starts rose by 0.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.793 million in March after spiking by 6.5 percent to an upwardly revised rate of 1.788 million in February. The uptick surprised participants, who had expected housing starts to fall by 1.4 percent to a rate of 1.745 million from the 1.769 million originally reported for the previous month. With the unexpected growth, housing starts once again reached their highest annual rate since hitting 1.802 million in June of 2006. The modest increase in housing starts came as multi-family starts soared by 4.6 percent to a rate of 593,000, more than offsetting a 1.7 percent drop in single-family starts to a rate of 1.200 million.


Crude oil futures ended lower on Tuesday on concerns about outlook for energy demand with investors fearing a slowdown in global economic growth amid imminent monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for global economic growth by nearly a full percentage point, citing seismic waves from Russia's invasion and the clear and present danger of inflation in many countries. Besides, oil prices fell despite lower output from OPEC+, which produced 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) below its targets in March, as Russian output began to decline following sanctions imposed by the West. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery fell $5.65 or 5.2 percent to settle at $102.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery dropped $6.17 or 5.41 percent to settle at $106.99 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee weakened on Tuesday, marking the fourth straight session of losses, tracking a strong American currency in the overseas market and significant foreign fund outflows.  Traders remained cautious as flagging risks of disruptive spillovers from geopolitical hostilities, an RBI article said India faces these challenges from a position of strength built on broadened vaccine coverage, financial sector resilience and robust exports. Some anxiety also came as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the debt piled on by the private sector during the coronavirus pandemic could lower growth for emerging markets by 1.3 percent over three years. On the global front, the dollar rose on Tuesday to a fresh 20-year high against the Japanese yen and tested a two-year peak against the euro, supported by high U.S. Treasury yields. Finally, the rupee ended at 76.52 (Provisional), weaker by 23 paise from its previous close of 76.29 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7711.52 crore against gross selling of Rs 14194.56 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 532.64 crore against gross selling of Rs 209.69 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3.29 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.12 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Tuesday on the back of stronger-than-expected corporate earnings. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Wednesday as China defied expectations by keeping its benchmark lending rate unchanged. Indian markets bled in the last hour of a choppy session on Tuesday due to selling in financial, IT, FMCG and auto stocks. Today, the benchmark indices are likely to open in green following positive global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement as describing the Indian economy's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as distinct and pronounced, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman exuded confidence about India posting robust economic growth this decade. Separately, she said the US-India relationship is at its best and will strengthen the global order in these challenging times. However, there may be some cautiousness as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecast for India for FY23 by 80 basis points to 8.2 percent, warning that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would hurt consumption and hence, growth, by way of higher prices. Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net sold shares worth Rs 5,871.69 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have net bought shares worth Rs 3,980.81 crore on April 19, as per provisional data available on the NSE. There will be some buzz in OMCs stocks as Fitch Ratings said further hikes in retail fuel prices may be required for state-run oil marketing companies' marketing margins to reach pre-November levels. Edible oil industry stocks will be in focus as Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) data showed that India's oilmeals exports declined 36 per cent to 23.73 lakh tonnes in the last fiscal, while in value terms the shipments were down 37 per cent to Rs 5,600 crore on lower sale of soyabean meal in the overseas markets. There will be some reaction in fertilizer industry stocks with a private report that India's fertiliser subsidy expenses could touch Rs 2 trillion in 2022-23 because of a sharp spike in global prices of urea, di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) and muriate of potash (MoP) in the last one year. NBFCs will be in limelight as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has mandated exposure limits to the non-banking finance companies (NBFCs), in line with commercial banks. There will be lots of earnings reaction based on the performance of the companies.


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