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NSE Intra-day chart (16 February 2022)
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Market Commentary 17 February 2022
Benchmarks likely to start session in positive zone


Indian equity benchmarks swung between gains and losses throughout the session and ended marginally lower on Wednesday, as investors' monitored situation between Russia and Ukriane. Key gauges made positive start, as traders took some support with SBI research report stated that India can add $20 billion to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if the country can reduce by 50 per cent the dependence on imports from China by leveraging the production linked incentive schemes. However, indices turned choppy and extended losses in morning deals, as traders turned cautious with government data showing that exports from special economic zones (SEZs) grew at a slower pace as compared to the growth of overall outbound shipments from the country during the first eight months of the current fiscal year. Traders also took note of a private report expected that RBI to leave key policy rates unchanged throughout the first half of 2022, despite retail inflation rising to 6.01 per cent in January, and likely to remain elevated till April. After the initial fall, the benchmark tried to inch higher in afternoon deals, taking support from the Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review stated that the Indian economy is poised to grow at the quickest pace among the league of large nations on the back of various initiatives taken by the government in Budget 2022-23. It said the current year may as well end with an economic reset manifest of a post-COVID-19 world. Manufacturing and Construction will be the 'growth drivers', triggered by the PLI schemes and public capex in infrastructure. However profit taking in the final hours pared all the gains and pushed the indices lower. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 145.37 points or 0.25% to 57,996.68 and the CNX Nifty was down by 30.25 points or 0.17% to 17,322.20.


The US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting reiterated the view that it would soon be appropriate to begin raising interest rate but were not as hawkish as some had feared. The minutes showed most participants agreed it would be appropriate to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than currently anticipated if inflation does not move down as expected. On the economic data front, a report from the Commerce Department showed a substantial rebound in US retail sales in the month of January. The Commerce Department said retail sales soared by 3.8 percent in January after plunging by a revised 2.5 percent in December. Street had expected retail sales to jump by 2.0 percent compared to the 1.9 percent slump originally reported for the previous month. Excluding a sharp increase in motor vehicle and parts sales, retail sales still spiked by 3.3 percent in January following a 2.8 percent nosedive in December. Ex-auto sales were expected to increase by 0.8 percent. The Labor Department also released a separate report showing US import prices increased by much more than expected in the month of January. The report said import prices surged up by 2.0 percent in January after falling by a revised 0.4 percent in December. The spike in import prices reflected the biggest monthly increase since April of 2011. Street had expected import prices to jump by 1.0 percent compared to the 0.2 percent dip originally reported for the previous month. On the sectoral front, Gold stocks moved sharply higher over the course of the session, driving the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up by 3.3 percent to its best closing level in three months. The rally by gold stocks came amid an increase by the price of the precious metal, with gold for April delivery climbing $15.30 to $1,871.50 an ounce.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, rebounding after suffering a sharp setback in the previous session, as investors weighed conflicting statements on the possible withdrawal of some Russian troops from around Ukraine amid recovering fuel demand. Meanwhile, data from Energy Information Administration showed US crude stockpiles rose by 1.12 million barrels in the week ended February 12, rising after seeing declines in the previous two weeks. Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.33 million barrels last week, falling for a second successive week, while distillate stockpiles fell 1.55 million barrels, dropping for a fifth straight week. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery rose $1.59 or 1.7 percent to settle at $93.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for April delivery gained $0.68 or 0.73 percent to settle at $93.96 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Rising for the second consecutive day, Indian rupee ended higher against dollar amid signs of de-escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russian defence ministry stated that it's an end of Crimea military drills. The Russian defence ministry shared a video of Russian military equipment and forces leaving Crimea. The move comes after Moscow said that some of its troops are returning to home bases, indicating cooling of tensions regarding the Ukraine issue. Additional support came in as SBI research report stated that India can add $20 billion to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if the country can reduce by 50 per cent the dependence on imports from China by leveraging the production linked incentive schemes. On the global front, dollar edged slightly lower on Wednesday as investors became less worried about the risk of Russia invading Ukraine and waited for the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.09 (Provisional), stronger by 23 paise from its previous close of 75.32 on Tuesday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6907.48 crore against gross selling of Rs 8298.60 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 203.82 crore against gross selling of Rs 465.63 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 26.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 25.14 crore.


The US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday as investors heaved a sigh of relief after Fed FOMC release minutes indicated that the Fed intends to raise interest rates, but it would be done at a moderate pace. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday amid mixed global cues. Indian markets ended volatile in red on Wednesday amid selling pressure in the final hour of the trade as investors tracked the Ukraine crisis. Today, markets are likely to start session in the positive zone following Asian peers. Traders will be taking encouragement as the finance ministry said with the muted impact of the third wave of the pandemic on economic activity, the Indian economy may undergo an economic reset by end of the year, clocking 9 per cent growth in 2021-22 (FY22) and around 8 per cent in 2022-23 (FY23). Some support will come as an RBI article stated that the 2022-23 Budget proposals and the recent monetary policy announcements have set the tone for a durable and broad-based economic revival which has started gaining traction as the nation emerges from the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Traders may take note of Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri's statement that while the government is prepared for any situation arising from the rise in crude oil prices, the steep increase in prices has not impacted domestic demand so far. However, there may be some cautiousness as Acuite Ratings & Research said India's FY22 current account deficit faces mild upside risk from high commodity prices. The wider merchandise trade deficits pulled India's Q2FY22 current account into the negative territory. There will be some buzz in the jewelary industry stocks as industry body GJEPC said Gems and jewellery exports rose by 6.5 per cent to $32.37 billion during April-January this fiscal. The exports stood at $30.40 billion in the same period of the previous year. Edible oil industry stocks will be in focus as industry body SEA said the country's oilmeal export declined by 65 per cent year-on-year to 1.76 lakh tonnes in January this year, mainly due to fall in shipments of soyabean and rapeseed meal. In January 2021, the country's oilmeal export stood at 5.01 lakh tonnes. There will be some reaction in mines and mineral industry stocks as the mines ministry said India's mineral production rose 2.6 per cent in December 2021 over the same month a year ago.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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Nifty Top volumes





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News Analysis