Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (14 February 2022)
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Market Commentary 15 February 2022
Benchmarks likely to open in green on Tuesday


Indian equity benchmarks plunged sharply on Monday, extending fall to the second straight session. The markets crash was mainly induced by heavy global sell off fuelled by escalating tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine. Key indices made gap-down opening and stayed in red for whole day as India's industrial production growth slowed down for a fourth straight month in December to 0.4 per cent mainly due to a poor performance by the manufacturing sector. According to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), contracted by 0.1 per cent in December. During the afternoon session, markets further fell as wholesale inflation across the country rose to 12.96 per cent in January, which was higher than expectation.  The wholesale price index (WPI) grew 13.56 per cent during the month of December 2021, while the WPI for November last year was revised to 14.87 per cent from 14.23 per cent. The WPI in January 2021 was at 2.51 per cent. Some concern also came as data from depositories indicated that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn a net Rs 14,935 crore from the Indian market in the first half of February. FPIs have been net sellers for the fourth consecutive month. As per data, FPIs took out Rs 10,080 crore from equities, Rs 4,830 crore from the debt segment and Rs 24 crore from hybrid instruments. Traders remained on sidelines ahead of CPI inflation data scheduled for Feb 14. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 1747.08 points or 3.00% to 56,405.84 and the CNX Nifty was down by 531.95 points or 3.06% to 16,842.80.


The US markets ended in red on Monday. The continued weakness on markets came as kept a close eye on developments regarding the tensions between Ukraine and Russia. President Joe Biden spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend, with a senior administration official describing the call as professional and substantive but noting there was no fundamental change in the dynamic that has been unfolding now for several weeks. Besides, traders also remained wary about the outlook for monetary policy following mixed remarks by Federal Reserve officials. While St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he favors front-loading planned interest rate increases, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she prefers a measured pace of rate hikes. On the sectoral front, energy stocks pulled back sharply after skyrocketing along with the price of crude oil last Friday. The sell-off in the sector came despite another spike by the price of crude oil, as crude for March delivery soared $2.36 to $95.46 a barrel. Reflecting the weakness in the energy sector, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index plunged by 2.9 percent, while the NYSE Arca Natural Gas Index and the NYSE Arca Oil Index both tumbled by 2.3 percent. Substantial weakness was also visible among biotechnology stocks, as reflected by the 1.7 percent slump by the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index. Computer hardware, healthcare and banking stocks also saw notable weakness, while gold stocks moved notably higher along with the price of the precious metal.


Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Monday as Ukraine's President said he had heard that Russia could invade the country on Wednesday. Russia is one of the world's largest oil-and-gas producers, and fears that it could invade Ukraine have driven the rally in oil closer to the $100-per-barrel mark. Meanwhile, the OPEC and its allies are struggling to delivery monthly pledges to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day until March. Benchmark crude oil futures for March delivery rose $2.36 or 2.5 percent to settle at $95.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for April delivery gained $2.04 or 2.2 percent to settle at $96.48 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Continuing previous session loss, rupee ended significantly lower against dollar as geopolitical tensions pushed investors towards safe-haven assets. Also, continues rise in crude oil prices to seven-year peaks and FII outflow impacted traders sentiments. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn a net Rs 14,935 crore from the Indian market in the first half of February. FPIs have been net sellers for the fourth consecutive month. Additional pressure came as India's industrial production growth slowed down for a fourth straight month in December to 0.4 per cent mainly due to a poor performance by the manufacturing sector. Also, wholesale inflation across the country rose to 12.96 per cent in January, which was higher than expectation. On the global front, dollar rose on Monday to a two-week high as investors sought safe-haven assets on fears that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.60 (Provisional), weaker by 24 paise from its previous close of 75.36 on Friday.


The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9629.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 9278.33 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 339.21 crore with gross sales of Rs 394.44 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11.89  crore against gross selling of Rs 16.66 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Monday after the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the relocation of U.S. diplomatic operations to western Ukraine, in a possible sign of an imminent Russian invasion. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday as traders parsed geopolitical risks, worries about Federal Reserve policy tightening and steps by China's central bank to support growth. Indian markets closed three percent lower on Monday, as escalating tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine worried investors globally. It was the biggest single-day fall for the Indian market since April 2021. Today, markets are likely to open on a positive note after a huge selloff the previous day amid mixed cues from Asian peers. Some support will come as in an effort to tame food inflation, the government has reduced import duty on lentils to nil for Australia and Canada origins and cut it to 22%, from 30%, for those originating in the US. Traders may take note of that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said discussions with regard to private cryptocurrencies and central bank-backed digital currency have been going on with the Reserve Bank and a decision will be taken after due deliberations. Besides, a private report stated that the Production Linked Incentives Scheme for the automobile and auto components sector will lead to creation of 7.5 lakh additional jobs and incremental production worth Rs 2,31,500 crore over the next five years. However, the markets may see bouts of volatility amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising oil prices. Traders may be concerned as retail inflation soared to a seven-month high of 6.01 per cent in January, breaching the upper tolerance level of the Reserve Bank, driven by rising prices certain food items. The inflation in the food basket was 5.43 per cent in January 2022 as against 4.05 per cent in the preceding month. Data released by the government showed that the retail inflation in oils and fats category stood at 18.7 per cent. Meanwhile, India and the UAE are likely to sign a free trade agreement (FTA) on February 18, under which both the countries could give duty-free access to a number of products from different sectors. Coal industry stocks will be in focus as the government said India's coal output registered an increase of 6.13 per cent to 79.60 million tonnes in January. India's coal output stood at 75 million tonnes (MT) in January 2020. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks as industry body Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) said India's palm oil imports declined by 29.15 per cent to 5,53,084 tonnes during January this year, but there was a sharp rise in shipments of RBD palmolein affecting domestic refineries. India, the world's leading vegetable oil buyer, imported 7,80,741 tonnes of palm oils in January 2021.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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  • SBI is eyeing to recover around Rs 8,000 crore from written-off accounts, including from NCLT resolved cases, in the current fiscal year to be ending on March 31, 2022. 
  • Reliance Industries' wholly-owned subsidiary -- Jio and SES have formed a joint venture - Jio Space Technology - to deliver the next generation scalable and affordable broadband services in India leveraging satellite technology. 
  • Coal India has possessed sufficient buffer stock to increase supply to non-power sector.  
  • Tata Motors is aiming its CNG cars contribution to grow up to 20% gradually in its total sales over the next 3 to 5 years as it anticipates more entry-level petrol and diesel customers to opt for such models.
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