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NSE Intra-day chart (11 March 2022)
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Market Commentary 14 March 2022
Markets likely to open in red amid mixed Asian cues


Indian equity benchmarks managed to end higher for the fourth straight session on Friday led by gains in Auto, Telecom and TECK stocks. The domestic indices swung between green and red terrain in a highly volatile session, as traders got anxious with a private brokerage firm sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Some cautiousness also came with Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director (MD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stating that India has been very good at managing its finances but the surge in global energy prices is going to have a negative impact on its economy. She observed that the war has posed a challenge to economies around the world, including India. Adding to the pessimism, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its data indicated that India Inc's direct overseas investment declined 67 per cent to $753.61 million in February 2022. The domestic investors had invested over $2.28 billion in overseas ventures as part of the outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in February 2021. However, key indices managed to end in green terrain, taking support from rating agency Crisil's report that Indian economy is likely to grow by 7.8 per cent in 2022-23, mainly driven by the government's drive to push infrastructure spending and likely increase in private capital expenditure. Some optimism also came with Fitch Ratings stating that strengthening economic recovery and stable financial metrics will help state-owned banks have stable earnings during the next financial year, aided by the gradual unwinding of regulatory forbearance through the year.  Separately, with an aim to promote and support untapped creativity of MSME sector, Union Minister for MSME Narayan Rane has launched the MSME Innovative Scheme (Incubation, Design and IPR) along with the MSME Idea Hackathon 2022. Rane further said that MSMEs have an important role to play in Atmanirbhar Bharat. He said these schemes will help entrepreneurs in developing new ventures. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 85.91 points or 0.15% to 55,550.30 and the CNX Nifty was up by 35.55 points or 0.21% to 16,630.45.


The US markets pared early gains and ended in red on Friday with technology stocks suffering sharp losses. Rising worries about the economic impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the various sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S. and the Western alllies dented market sentiments. The U.S. President Joe Biden called to downgrade Russia's most favored nation status as a trading partner. Data showing a bigger than expected drop in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of March weighed as well on the market. According to a report released by the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in over ten years in the month of March. The report showed the consumer sentiment index slid to 59.7 in March from 62.8 in February. Street had expected the index to dip to 61.4. With the bigger than expected decrease, the consumer sentiment index dropped to its lowest level since hitting 59.5 in September 2011. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 5.4 percent in March from 4.9 percent in February, while five-year inflation expectations held at 3.0 percent. While the report showed index of current economic conditions edged down to 67.8 in March from 68.2 in February, the index of consumer expectations slumped to 54.4 from 59.4.


Crude oil futures end sharply higher on Friday on concerns about disruptions in supply amid uncertainty about any meaningful progress in talks between Russia and Ukraine. Reports that some OPEC+ producers, including Angola and Nigeria, have struggled to meet their production targets, contributed as well to the uptick in crude oil prices. A report released by Baker Hughes showed the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil increased by eight to 527 this week. The report said the total active U.S. rig count, which includes those drilling for natural gas, climbed by 13 to 663. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery surged $3.31 or 3.1 percent to settle at $109.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery rose $3.20 or nearly 3 percent to settle at $112.53 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee pared most of its early losses but still weakened marginally against the American currency on Friday, due to fresh dollar demand from banks and importers. Traders were worried as a private brokerage firm sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. However, traders took some support with rating agency Crisil's report that Indian economy is likely to grow by 7.8 per cent in 2022-23, mainly driven by the government's drive to push infrastructure spending and likely increase in private capital expenditure. On the global front, euro steadied on Friday but was still set for weekly gains as the European Central Bank's announcement that it will phase out its stimulus lent support to the single currency. Finally, the rupee ended at 76.44, weaker by 1 paise from its previous close of 76.43 on Thursday.


The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10381.53 crore against gross selling of Rs 9636.82 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 507.37 crore against gross sales of Rs 319.88 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 12.59 crore.


The US markets ended lower on Friday as tech and growth shares led a broad decline and investors worried about the conflict in Ukraine. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday as investors remain cautious on Russia-Ukraine talks. Indian markets ended a sluggish session on Friday with mild gains, as strength in pharma and select financial stocks was countered by weakness in auto stocks. Today, the markets are likely to start holiday shortened week in red amid concerns of rise in geo-political tensions after Russian missiles hit a large Ukrainian base near NATO-member Poland's border on Sunday. Investors will keenly watch out for the February WPI data, and the retail inflation figures that are scheduled to come later in the day. Traders will be concerned as Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Michael Patra said India's growth story remains as weak as it was during the 2013 taper tantrum and recent geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Russia are further likely to hurt a recovery. There will be some cautiousness as a private report cut India's GDP forecast for the fiscal year beginning April 1 by 50 basis points to 7.9 per cent, as higher oil prices torpedo economic recovery worldwide, and raised retail inflation projection to 6 per cent and expects current account deficit to widen to 3 per cent of GDP. However, some respite may come later in the day as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the country's merchandise exports have reached over $380 billion so far this fiscal till March 7 and are expected to reach $410 billion in 2021-22. Some support may come as finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said rising internet penetration, growing income and the high number of young people will likely drive up the size of India's digital economy to as much as $800 billion by 2030. On the macro-economic data front, India's industrial growth in the month of January grew 1.3% year-on-year. It had slumped to a 10-month low of 0.4% in December 2021. Besides, the RBI data showed the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $394 million to $631.92 billion in the week ended March 4. There will be some buzz in the jewelry industry stocks with government data showing that India's gold imports surged by about 73 per cent to $45.1 billion during April-February this fiscal on account of higher demand. There will be some reaction in tea industry stocks as a body of tea planters said exports of the commodity will be adversely impacted due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Banking stocks will be in focus as Fitch Ratings stated that moderate pressures on asset quality of Indian banks may re-emerge as forbearance starts to unwind from 2023.


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  • Titan Company's wholly-owned subsidiary -- TCLNA has signed Stock Purchase agreement with Great Heights, USA (Great Heights) for subscription of shares.  
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