Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (10 June 2021)
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Market Commentary 11 June 2021
Markets to open in green following global peers

 

The bulls made a comeback on the D-Street after two straight days of decline, with Sensex and Nifty settling above their crucial psychological levels of 52,300 and 15,700, respectively. The benchmarks opened in green and traded firmly higher for most part of the day, as traders took encouragement with Finance Ministry report stated that faster vaccine coverage and frontloading of fiscal measures announced in this year's budget would be the major factors in boosting the investment and consumption cycles and, in turn, reviving the economy, as economic activities have slowed down amid the second wave of Covid-19 and lockdowns across states. Besides, the Finance Ministry said it has released third monthly instalment of revenue deficit grant of Rs 9,871 crore to 17 states. With the release of this instalment, total Rs 29,613 crore has been released in the first three months of the current financial year as Post Devolution Revenue Deficit (PDRD) Grant to states. Benchmarks gained further momentum in second half of the session, taking support from the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) in its monthly report stating that the economic impact of the second wave COVID-19 is likely to be restricted to the first quarter of 2022. As per the DEA, rapid vaccination of India's population and the frontloading of the fiscal measures are the key to invigorating investment and consumption. Traders overlooked International Zinc Association (IZA) stating that India loses around 5-7 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) every year due to corrosion. The association also stressed upon the need for immediate and appropriate measures by authorities to control further damage. Meanwhile, all-powerful GST Council, chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, will meet on June 12 to decide on GST rate cut for COVID essentials and black fungus medicine. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 358.83 points or 0.69% to 52,300.47, while the CNX Nifty was up by 102.40 points or 0.65% to 15,737.75.   

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday as investors shrugged off a key inflation report that showed a bigger-than-expected increase in price pressures. The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.6 percent in May after climbing by 0.8 percent in April. Street had expected consumer prices to increase by 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices climbed by 0.7 percent in May following a 0.9 percent advance in April. Core prices were also expected to rise by 0.4 percent. The report also showed consumer prices in May were up by 5.0 percent compared to the same month a year ago, reflecting the biggest spike since August of 2008. The annual rate of core consumer price growth also accelerated to 3.8 percent in May, which represents the biggest jump since June of 1992. Further, support also came in as the Labor Department released a separate report showing another modest decrease in first-time claims for unemployment benefits. The report showed initial jobless claims edged down to 376,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 385,000. Street had expected jobless claims to dip to 370,000. With the slight drop, jobless claims once again fell to their lowest level since hitting 256,000 in the week ended March 14, 2020. On the sectoral front, Substantial strength was also visible among biotechnology stocks, as reflected by the 2.4 percent jump by the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index. The index ended the session at its best closing level in almost four months.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday on optimism for strong economic demand after new US unemployment claims fell to their lowest since the country's first wave of COVID-19 last year. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly 15 months, while consumer prices increased solidly in May as the pandemic's grip on the economy continues to ease. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said oil demand would rise by 6.6%, or 5.95 million barrels per day (bpd), this year. The monthly forecast was unchanged for a second consecutive month. Crude oil futures for July rose $0.33 or 0.5 percent to settle at $70.29 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent crude gained $0.25 or 0.35 percent to settle at $72.47 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended lower against dollar on Thursday as investors are waiting for crucial inflation data due today which may hint when the US Fed will tighten their monetary policy. However, downfall remain capped as Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) in its monthly report stated that the economic impact of the second wave COVID-19 is likely to be restricted to the first quarter of 2022. As per the DEA, rapid vaccination of India's population and the frontloading of the fiscal measures are the key to invigorating investment and consumption. On the global front; sterling fell to a one-month low versus the dollar on Thursday after Britain and the European Union failed to agree on solutions to post-Brexit trade problems in Northern Ireland. Finally, the rupee ended 73.06, weaker by 9 paise from its previous close of 72.97 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyer in equity segment, while net seller in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7058.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 6460.30 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 224.05 crore with gross sales of Rs 2318.97 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 26.34 crore against gross selling of Rs 116.43 crore.

 

The US markets ended higher on Thursday as economic data appeared to support the Federal Reserve's assertion that the current wave of heightened inflation will be temporary. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday tracking a firm finish on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets ended near-record closing high on Thursday boosted mainly by banking and financial stocks. Today, the start of session is likely to be positive following gains in global peers. Investors will be eyeing the manufacturing and Industrial production data for the month of April set to be released today post market hours. A fall in the number of Covid cases in the country likely to keep the sentiment on D-Street upbeat. Fresh daily cases remained below the 1 lakh mark for the fourth day straight as India reported 91,000 cases in the last 24 hours. The steady decline in cases is igniting hopes of the further reopening of the economy, providing support to market mood. Traders will be taking encouragement with Commerce Secretary Anup Wadhawan's statement that India's export of agricultural and allied products in 2020-21 grew by 17.34 per cent to $41.25 billion, and this growth momentum is expected to be sustained in the current fiscal as well. He said huge growth has been seen in the export of cereals, non-basmati rice, wheat, millets, maize and other coarse grains. Some support will come as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be buying bonds maturing between 2026 and 2035 in its third tranche of the G-sec Acquisition Programme (G-SAP). The total size of the G-SAP programme would be Rs 40,000 crore, including Rs 10,000 crore of state development loans. Traders may take note of credit rating agency Icra Ratings' report that with decline in number of fresh COVID-19 cases and easing of restrictions, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at 8.5 per cent in FY2021-22. It expects the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) to grow at 7.3 per cent in FY2022. Meanwhile, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council will meet on June 12 to decide on extension of compensation cess beyond 2022 and tax exemption or reduction in rate on various Covid-related items including vaccines. There will be some reaction in power stocks with report that India's struggling wind power industry is looking to its clean energy rival for help emerging from a pandemic-induced slump.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

15,737.75

15,673.75

15,776.50

BSE Sensex

52,300.47

52,056.81

52,445.24

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ITC

307.19

209.30

207.40

211.30

State Bank of India

273.97

432.25

425.34

436.24

Tata Motors

243.51

344.75

342.15

347.60

NTPC

221.44

118.50

117.24

119.84

Power Grid Corporation

183.88

241.65

238.60

246.35

 

  • Tech Mahindra is looking for acquisitions in Europe to upgrade its capabilities in various segments, including cloud computing, 5G, SAP and Salesforce softwares. 
  • Rockwell Industries has entered into strategic partnership with Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, to provide its World Health Organisation - Performance, Quality and Safety certified Covid-19 vaccine freezersto enable storage of Sputnik V vaccine in India. 
  • Tata Motors' wholly owned subsidiary -- Jaguar Land Rover has launched the updated version of its F-PACE SUV in the country priced at Rs 69.99 lakh (ex-showroom). 
  • HDFC is planning to raise up to Rs 2,000 crore by issuing debt securities on a private placement basis to augment its long-term resources.
News Analysis