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NSE Intra-day chart (03 September 2021)
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Market Commentary 06 September 2021
Benchmarks likely to make positive start on Monday

 

Indian equity benchmarks closed at record closing highs for yet another session driven by gains in index major Reliance Industries amid by largely positive trend in global markets and sustained foreign fund inflows. Benchmarks made positive start, as sentiments got boost with the commerce ministry's provisional data showed that India's exports jumped 45.17 per cent to $33.14 billion in August as against $22.83 billion in the same month last year. Traders also found some support with Union Minister Nitin Gadkari's statement that the Rs 100 lakh crore-Gatishakti scheme will provide a framework for the National Infrastructure Pipeline programme and make Indian products more competitive by cutting down logistic costs and improving supply chains. He also sought investments in the road sector from insurance and pension funds of the US. However, benchmarks witnessed volatility in late morning deals due to a consistent rise in the coronavirus cases and fear of a third Covid wave is driving investors towards defensive bets. India reported over 45,000 new cases of Covid-19 in the last 24 hours. This was also the biggest single-day rise in two months. Some concern also came with Ratings agency ICRA's statement that fiscal balances of 19 states in the quarter ended June of current financial year (Q1FY22) are weaker than pre-Covid levels with milder recovery in revenue and spending. But, markets soon regained positive momentum to end higher as India's service sector growth resumed in the month of August as the pandemic continued to recede and vaccine access improved. As per the survey report, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index stood at 56.7 in August from 45.4 in July. Further, the Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index -- which measures both manufacturing and services -- stood at 55.4 in August, from 49.2 in July. Adding to the optimism, a report said hiring activity in India has been on a steady recovery and the hiring rate in July this year was around 65 per cent above the pre-COVID level. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 277.41 points or 0.48% to 58,129.95, while the CNX Nifty was up by 89.45 points or 0.52% to 17,323.60.

 

The US markets ended lackluster trade mostly in red on Friday with traders showing some uncertainty about the repercussions of the Labor Department's monthly jobs. Despite the choppy trading, the tech-heavy Nasdaq reached a new record closing high. The choppy trading on Wall Street came as traders digested the Labor Department's closely watched monthly employment report, which showed much weaker than expected job growth in the month of August. The report suggests the delta variant of the coronavirus is weighing on the labor market, although the data could also lead the Federal Reserve to push back its plans to begin scaling back stimulus. Fed officials have indicated inflation has reached their target but they need to see further improvement in the labor market before they begin tapering asset purchases and raising interest rates. The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment rose by 235,000 jobs in August after soaring by an upwardly revised 1.053 million jobs in July. Street had expected employment to jump by about 750,000 jobs compared to the spike of 943,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. Despite the much weaker than expected job growth, the unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent in August from 5.4 percent in July, matching street estimates. Meanwhile, separate report released by the Institute for Supply Management showed U.S. service sector growth slowed from a record pace in the month of August. The ISM said its services PMI fell to 61.7 in August after reaching an all-time high of 64.1 in July, although a reading above 50 still indicates growth in the sector. Street had expected the index to drop to 61.5.

 

Crude oil futures settled lower on Friday, amid worries about demand after smaller-than-expected gains in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in August. Data released Friday showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 235,000 jobs in August, well below the 720,000 increase expected by market participants surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Oil prices moved higher earlier in the session on reports saying a slow recovery for the U.S. Gulf Coast export and refining hub from the impact of Hurricane Ida could result in a drop in oil stockpiles. Crude oil futures for October fell 70 cents or 1 percent to settle $69.29 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. November Brent crude lost 42 cents or 0.6% percent to settle at $72.61 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange. 

 

Indian rupee ended higher against the American currency on Friday, due to selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Traders took support with commerce ministry's provisional data showing that India's exports jumped 45.17 per cent to $33.14 billion in August as against $22.83 billion in the same month last year. Investors also got relief after India's services sector expanded in August at the fastest pace in one-and-a-half years amid strong inflows of new work and improved demand conditions. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose from 45.4 in July to 56.7 in August, as the reopening of several establishments and increased consumer footfall boosted sales. On the global front; dollar sank to its lowest in almost a month against major rivals on Friday, ahead of a crucial U.S. jobs report that could spur the Federal Reserve to an earlier tapering of stimulus. Finally, the rupee ended 73.02, stronger by 4 paise from its previous close of 73.06 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyer in equity segment and net seller in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10077.04 crore against gross selling of Rs 8742.45 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 720.28 crore with gross sales of Rs 790.73 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 12.97 crore against gross selling of Rs 26.20 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Friday as slower US jobs growth raised questions about the pace of the recovery. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday amid an ongoing rally in Japan sparked by the planned exit of the prime minister and as traders mulled slower U.S. hiring that may delay a reduction in stimulus. Indian markets ended at record high levels on Friday led by strong gains in metals, energy and auto stocks. Today, the start of holiday truncated week is likely to be higher amid mixed global cues. Markets will remain shut on Friday, September 10, on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. Traders will be taking encouragement with a private report that recovering from the economic slump caused by the pandemic, hiring trends saw an improvement in August. The previous month saw a 26% on-year increase in hiring activity to 2.78 lakh. Although the numbers are a tad bit shy of where they were in July, experts say the trend remains positive brushing away any concerns. Some support will come with a private report that the government's collections from levy of excise duty on petroleum products have jumped 48 per cent in the first four months of the current fiscal year, with the incremental mop-up being 3-times of the repayment liability of legacy oil bonds in the full fiscal. Also, the RBI data showed that the country's foreign exchange reserves soared by $16.663 billion to touch a lifetime high of $633.558 billion in the week ended August 27, mainly due to an increase in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) holdings. Traders may take note of report that the government is likely to extend an incentive scheme for leather and footwear industries, IFLADP, till 2025-26 with an outlay of Rs 1,700 crore, to further boost manufacturing, exports and job creation. Besides, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 16,459 crore in Indian markets in August, with majority of investment coming in the debt segment. In equities, they invested just Rs 2,082.94 crore while debt segment saw inflow of Rs 14,376.2 crore between August 2-31. There will be some buzz in metal stocks as Minister of State (MoS) for Steel Faggan Singh Kulaste said India's crude steel output is expected to soar about 18 per cent to 120 million tonnes (MT) by the end of the ongoing financial year. Textile industry stocks will be in focus as Textiles Minister Piyush Goyal said the value of textile exports should be increased to $100 billion from $33 billion currently. There will be some reaction in coal industry stocks as in order to make more coal available to power plants that do not have any power purchase agreement (PPA), the union power ministry agreed to changes in the guidelines for SHAKTI scheme.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,323.60

17,243.84

17,371.74

BSE Sensex

58,129.95

57,864.41

58,295.13

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

213.26

123.10

120.10

124.80

Tata Motors

165.94

295.55

292.89

297.34

HDFC Life Insurance Company

156.00

734.40

725.15

745.70

Indian Oil Corporation

152.71

113.10

110.96

114.36

State Bank of India

142.33

431.40

428.30

434.40

 

  • HDFC Life Insurance has received an approval to acquire 100 percent stake in Exide Life Insurance from Exide Industries for aggregating to Rs 6,687 crore. 
  • M&M is planning to cut output at its automotive division by up to 25% owing to no production days of around 7 days across its plants due to semiconductor shortage. 
  • Nestle India has partnered with Reliance Jio for its campaign to encourage people to mask up and follow COVID-19-appropriate behavior. 
  • Reliance Industries is aiming to generate at least 100 gigawatts of electricity from renewable sources by 2030, which can be converted into carbon-free green hydrogen.
News Analysis