In a highly volatile session, Indian equity markets recovered most of their early losses and ended around flat line on Monday on the back of weak global cues ahead of the FOMC meet. Markets opened gap down, as traders were concerned as the government data showed the growth of eight core infrastructure industries slowed down to 4.3 per cent in March against 12.6 per cent in the year-ago period due to a decline in the output of coal and crude oil. Sentiments remained down-beat with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the Report on Currency and Finance for 2021-22 stated that the India's economy may take more than a decade to overcome the losses emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report has estimated the output losses during the pandemic period at around Rs 52 lakh crore. Some concern also came as India's foreign exchange (forex) reserves dipped by $3.27 billion to $600.42 billion for the week ended April 22, registering the seventh straight week of fall, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) appears to keep selling dollars to prevent a slide in the value of rupee amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, continuing its selling spree for the seventh consecutive month, foreign investors have pulled out Rs 17,144 crore from the Indian equity market in April amid fears of an aggressive rate hike by the US Fed that haunted such investors and dented sentiments. However, the benchmark indices were able to erase most of the intraday losses, as some optimism remained among traders with the Finance Ministry stated that Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in April 2022 touched the highest ever level of about Rs 1.68 lakh crore, up 20 percent from the year-ago period, on improved compliance. In April 2022, 1.06 crore GST returns in GSTR-3B were filed. The gross GST collection in April 2022 is an all-time high and Rs 25,000 crore more than the previous highest collection of Rs 1.42 lakh crore recorded in March. Some solace also came as after India's manufacturing sector activities witnessed faster growth in April amid quicker increases in production as well as factory orders, and renewed expansion in international sales. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 54.0 in March to 54.7 in April, as a retreat of COVID-19 restrictions continued to support demand. Some support also came in as Department for the Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) secretary Anurag Jain said foreign direct investment (equity) inflows into manufacturing surged 78% until February last fiscal to $20 billion, far exceeding the pace of rise in overall FDI, despite the pandemic blues. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 84.88 points or 0.15% to 56,975.99 and the CNX Nifty was down by 33.45 points or 0.20% to 17,069.10.

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as investors looked forward to a pivotal Federal Reserve decision. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rate by 50 basis points, the sharpest rate hike in about 22 years. The accompanying statement is eyed for clues about how aggressively the central bank plans to tighten monetary policy. Further, some support also came in as new orders for US manufactured goods spiked by more than expected in the month of March, according to a report released by the Commerce Department.  The report showed factory orders surged by 2.2 percent in March following a revised 0.1 percent uptick in February. Street had expected factory orders to jump by 1.1 percent compared to the 0.5 percent drop originally reported for the previous month. The sharp increase in factory orders came as orders for non-durable goods soared by 3.2 percent, while orders for durable goods shot up by 1.1 percent. The report also showed shipments of manufactured goods spiked by 2.3 percent in March after jumping by 1.1 percent in February. Inventories of manufactured goods also shot up by 1.3 percent in March following a 0.9 percent increase in February. With orders jumping by inventories, the inventories-to-shipments ratio dropped to 1.43 in March from 1.45 in February. Meanwhile, data showed the number of job openings in the US rose by 205,000 from a month earlier to a series high of 11.549 million in March of 2022.

Crude oil futures ended lower on Tuesday on account of rising concerns about the outlook for energy demand due to the economic slowdown in China amid stringent coronavirus lockdowns in Shanghai and elsewhere. Meanwhile, as EU leaders firm up plans to announce a sixth tranche of sanctions against Russia this week, Slovakia is seeking an exemption against approving a ban on Russian oil. Hungary also said it will not support sanctions on Russian oil and gas shipments. Besides, Markets looked ahead to a meeting of ministers from OPEC and its allies for directional cues. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery fell $2.76 or 2.6 percent to settle at $102.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for July delivery dropped $2.61 or 2.4 percent to settle at $104.97 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended marginally weaker against the US dollar on Monday, on increased demand for the greenback from importers and banks. Traders were worried as government data showed that the production of eight infrastructure sectors slowed down to 4.3% in March against 12.6% in the year-ago period. However, downfall remain capped as India's manufacturing sector activities witnessed faster growth in April amid quicker increases in production as well as factory orders, and renewed expansion in international sales. On the global front, dollar rose back towards a 20-year high on Monday as the euro struggled around the $1.05 mark, with investors preparing for a busy week of central bank meetings including a likely Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Finally, the rupee ended at 76.52 (Provisional), weaker by 2 paise from its previous close of 76.50 on Friday.

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8887.36 crore against gross selling of Rs 12211.86 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 573.86 crore against gross sales of Rs 296.07 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 58.95 crore against gross selling of Rs 66.79 crore.

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday after a choppy session in which each of the major indices fluctuated between gains and losses as a key meeting of the Federal Reserve gets underway. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday amid thin trade due to Labour Day holidays, despite positive cues from Wall Street overnight. Indian markets fell for a second straight session on Monday but ended off their day's lows, tracking gains in U.S. stock futures and a retreat in oil prices. Markets remain closed on Tuesday for Ramzan Eid. Today, markets are likely to open in green as trading resumes after a day's holiday, amid positive cues from global markets. The crucial US Fed interest rate decision to be announced later tonight will be closely monitored. Some support will come as India's merchandise exports in April grew 24.2 per cent year-on-year to their third-highest level ever of $38.2 billion on the back of higher commodity prices amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the preliminary trade data released by the commerce ministry showed. Besides, India may only become a $5-trillion economy in FY29, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to data from the IMF's World Economic Outlook Database, updated last month, India's nominal GDP is seen rising to $4.92 trillion in FY28. As such, it will only be in the following year, or FY29, that the GDP will cross the $5-trillion mark. Traders may take note of an SBI research report stating that the share of incremental bank credit in incremental nominal GDP is likely to cross the 50 per cent mark in the current financial year, from a decade low of 27 per cent in FY2022. A higher credit-to-GDP ratio indicates aggressive and active participation of the banking sector in the real economy, while a lower number shows the need for more formal credit. There will be some buzz in the coal industry stocks as India's coal output soared by 28 per cent to 66.1 million tonnes (mt) in April amid high demand from thermal power plants as several parts of the country grappled with power shortage. Housing finance company stocks will be in focus with Icra's report that Affordable housing finance companies' (AHFCs) loan book is likely to expand by 17-20 per cent in the current financial year, supported by the government's higher focus on housing and a favourable tax regime. There will be some reaction in consumer durable industry stocks with a private report that India's consumer durables market has been affected because the supply of components used in manufacturing goods ranging from television panels to refrigerators and washing-machines is stuck in Shanghai owing to the Covid-induced lockdown there. Meanwhile, Life Insurance Corporation's (LIC) maiden initial public offer -- India's largest IPO till date opens for subscription today. The LIC IPO priced in the range of Rs 902 to Rs 949 will be accepting bids till May 09. There will be lots of earnings reaction to keep the markets buzzing.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• Coal India has posted 15.6 percent growth in its supplies to the power sector in April 2022 compared to same month last year. 
• Tata Motors is looking to drive a range of electric vehicles across various price points with multiple body styles and features to cater to a wide range of customers across segments. 
• IOC has rolled out M15 petrol -- 15 per cent blend of methanol with petrol -- on a pilot basis in Assam's Tinsukia district. 
• HDFC has reported a rise of 21.57% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 6,892.16 crore for Q4FY22 as compared to Rs 5,669.38 crore for Q4FY21.