Javeri Fiscal Services Ltd. Daily Newsletter
NSE Intra-day chart (02 March 2022)
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Market Commentary 03 March 2022
Markets likely to start session on positive note on firm global cues


Indian equity benchmarks snapped two session gaining streak and ended over a per cent lower on Wednesday weighed by automobiles, banking and financial stocks. Additionally, the escalating Ukraine crisis along with rising crude oil prices further weighed on investor sentiment. Markets made negative start and stayed in red for whole day, as India's economic growth slowed to 5.4 percent in the third quarter of 2021-22 from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 8.5 percent in the previous quarter (July-September) and 20.3 per cent in April-June quarter. But, the growth is higher than China's GDP expansion of 4 per cent during the same period and the country retained its position as the world's fastest growing major economy. Some concern also came as India Ratings said the ongoing geopolitical risks arising from the Russia-Ukraine war would push India's import bills higher for items such as mineral oils and gas, gems and jewellery, edible oils and fertilisers. Investors are eyeing the manufacturing PMI data to be out later in the day. Benchmarks continued to trade lower in late afternoon deals, as traders remained cautious with data showing that investments in the Indian capital market through Participatory notes (P-notes) dropped to Rs 87,989 crore at the end of January and foreign investors will continue with their negative stance amid the Ukraine crisis. Adding more pessimism, a private report stated that the initial or short term impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine for India will be experienced through inflationary pressures as the country is dependent on imported oil. However, markets managed to trim some losses, taking support from the survey report stated that Indian manufacturing activity improved in the month of February, as firms responded to strong increases in new work intakes by lifting production, input buying and stocks of purchases. As per the survey report, the Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite single-figure indicator of manufacturing performance - surged to 54.9 in February from 54.0 in January. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 778.38 points or 1.38% to 55,468.90 and the CNX Nifty was down by 187.95 points or 1.12% to 16,605.95.


The US markets ended higher on Wednesday despite a continued surge in oil prices amid the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine. After reaching an intraday high of $112.51 a barrel, the highest level since May 2011, crude for April delivery gave back some ground but soared $7.19 to $110.60 a barrel. Stocks moved higher as Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress for his semiannual monetary policy update. The central bank chief said that rate hikes are likely to begin this month despite the highly uncertain impact of the war in Ukraine, and that the Fed would make progress on but not finalize a plan to reduce its balance sheet. On the sectoral front, a rebound by treasury yields contributed to significant strength among banking stocks, with the KBW Bank Index shooting up by 3.6 percent after ending the previous session at a five-month closing low. Steel, semiconductor, networking and transportation stocks also moved notably higher, while gold stocks bucked the uptrend amid a steep drop by the price of the precious metal. On the economic data front, payroll processor ADP released a report showing US private sector employment jumped by much more than expected in the month of February. ADP said private sector employment surged by 475,000 jobs in February compared to street estimates for an increase of 388,000 jobs. The report also showed a substantial revision to the January data, with the revised data showing employment spiked by 509,000 jobs compared to the previously reported loss of 301,000 jobs.


Crude oil futures ended sharply higher on Wednesday, extending recent gains, on concerns about global crude supplies due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and data showing a drop in US crude inventories. Data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude stockpiles in the US dropped by 2.6 million barrels to 413.4 million barrels in the week ended February 25th. The data said oil stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 972,000 barrels from the previous week, to 22.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, a global agreement to release crude reserves failed to calm fears about supply disruptions from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery surged $7.19 or 7 percent to settle at $110.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery rose $9.91 or 9.4 percent to settle at $114.88 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended considerably lower against the US dollar on Wednesday, on increased demand for the greenback from importers and banks amid deepening geopolitical tensions. Sentiments were impacted as higher crude prices will fuel already escalating inflation across economies. India meets it 80 percent of its oil requirement through imports and rising prices will not only fan inflation but will also result in a worsening of current and fiscal deficit. Adding more pessimism, India Ratings said the ongoing geopolitical risks arising from the Russia-Ukraine war would push India's import bills higher for items such as mineral oils and gas, gems and jewellery, edible oils and fertilisers. On the global front, sterling rose against the euro on Wednesday, with investors focusing on shifting market bets on UK and euro zone rate hikes amid concerns about the economic impact of the war in Ukraine. Finally, the rupee ended at 75.71, weaker by 38 paise from its previous close of 75.33 on Monday.


The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 15666.27 crore against gross selling of Rs 19800.43 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 557.03 crore against gross selling of Rs 1259.73 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 20.38 crore against gross selling of Rs 22.81 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Wednesday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signalled the US central bank would likely raise key rates less than some investors had feared. Asian markets are trading in green on Thursday following gains on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets finished a volatile session more than one percent lower on Wednesday on weakness across global markets amid escalating tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine dampened investors' sentiment. Today, markets are likely to start session on a positive note tracking a rebound in global markets after reassuring comments from the Fed. Sentiments will get a boost as preliminary data released by the commerce ministry stated that India's exports rose by 22.36 per cent to $33.81 billion in February on account of healthy growth in sectors like engineering, petroleum and chemicals, even as the trade deficit widened to $21.19 billion. Traders may take note of report that the income tax department said it has issued refunds worth over Rs 1.83 lakh crore to more than 2.09 crore taxpayers so far this fiscal. This includes 1.70 crore refunds of the 2020-21 fiscal ended March 31, 2021, amounting to Rs 34,202.31 crore. However, there may be some cautiousness as exporters' body FIEO said export cargoes to CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries are impacted due to ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine as no shipping line is willing to take consignments there. CIS countries include Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine. There will be some buzz in railways industry stocks as the Railways has registered a record increase of 176 MT in loading during this financial year till February 28 as compared to last year. The national transporter has set a target of achieving 1,400 MT of loading by the end of this financial year. Metal industry stocks will be in focus as the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) said that non-power industries, including aluminium companies, has been plagued by a protracted coal shortage for the past seven months and urged the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) to ensure on priority a supply of at least 25-30 coal rakes per day to the sector. There will be some reaction in power industry stocks with a private report that India installed a record 10 gigawatt (GW) of solar capacity during calendar year 2021, registering a year-on-year rise of 212 per cent. Insurance industry stocks will be in limelight with private reports of a possible delay in the much-awaited initial public offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation of India.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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Nifty Top volumes





Previous close (Rs)

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Coal India





Hindalco Industries





Oil & Natural Gas Corporation





HDFC Life Insurance Company





Tata Motors






  • Coal India's coal production has increased by 3.9% to 64.3 million tonnes in February, 2022 as against 61.9 million tonnes in February 2021. 
  • Tata Motors has reported 27 percent rise in total sales to 73,875 units in February 2022. 
  • BPCL has launched the city gas distribution network in Aurangabad and Ahmednagar districts. 
  • Reliance Industries' subsidiary -- Reliance Retail Ventures has acquired majority stake in designer brand Abraham & Thakore Exports.
News Analysis