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NSE Intra-day chart (02 March 2021)
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Market Commentary 03 March 2021
Benchmarks to make positive start amid gains in Asian peers

 

Indian equity benchmarks gained for second straight session on Tuesday buoyed by hectic buying in Auto, IT and TECK counters amid positive domestic and global cues. The benchmarks staged a gap up opening, as the finance ministry stated that GST collections crossed the Rs 1 lakh crore-mark for the fifth month in a row in February, rising 7 per cent annually to over Rs 1.13 lakh crore, indicating economic recovery. Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections had risen for two straight months to touch record Rs 1,19,875 crore in January and Rs 1.15 lakh crore in December. However, some profit taking in noon deals led to benchmarks coming off intraday highs. Some concern came after the Biden administration has told the US Congress that India's recent emphasis on import substitution through the Make in India campaign has epitomised the challenges facing the bilateral trade relationship. In its 2021 Trade Policy Agenda and 2020 Annual Report, the US Trade Representative (USTR) said that during 2020, the US continued its engagement with India to try to resolve longstanding market access impediments affecting US exporters. Though, late buying led to the Sensex and Nifty close near day's highs. Traders also found solace with the Crisil report stated that on the back of timely government and regulatory measures this fiscal, which helped the economy to recover faster than expected, bank credit is seen growing 400-500 bps to 9-10 percent in the next financial year. In the current fiscal, bank credit is expected to rise 4-5 percent despite the sharpest contraction in the economy since Independence. Some support also came with the finance ministry stating that the Centre has released Rs 1.04 lakh crore to states in four months since October 2020, to meet GST compensation shortfall. Traders also took a note of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statement that Economic activity is gaining steam in India as Covid-19 incidences recede but private investments are missing in action. It also said the ongoing vaccine rollout is releasing pent-up optimism. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 447.05 points or 0.90% to 50,296.89, while the CNX Nifty was up by 157.55 points or 1.07% to 14,919.10.

 

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday as traders cashed in on the strong gains posted during trading on Monday. The weakness on the day came despite a continued decrease by the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moved lower for the third straight session. The 10-year Treasury yield, a point of focus lately for equity investors, dipped below 1.41%. The benchmark rate appeared to be stabilizing this week after surging to a high of 1.6% last week, which eased some of the fears about higher borrowing costs and inflation. Further, markets fell led by technology names, Apple and Facebook fell about more than 2% each. Amazon and Microsoft both slipped 1%, while Tesla dropped 4.5%. Tech and consumer discretionary were the two worst-performing sectors, falling more than 1% each.  However, downside remained capped as President Joe Biden said that Merck will help make Johnson & Johnson's single shot Covid vaccine as the country tries to ramp up supply. Economically sensitive cyclical sectors have outperformed the broader market this year amid optimism about vaccines and economic resurgence. Energy and financials have risen 28% and 12%, respectively, year to date.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Tuesday, extending their previous session's losses, as traders bet that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will decide later this week to restore some output in April. OPEC+ will hold a committee meeting Wednesday to offer a recommendation on production levels, and the group will hold its main decision-making gathering on Thursday. OPEC+ could discuss allowing as much as 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude back into the market. Previously, Saudi Arabia has said that it will start to increase production in April. Crude oil futures for April declined 89 cents or 1.5 percent to settle at $59.75 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. May Brent crude fell 99 cents or 1. 6 percent to settle at $62.70 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended substantially stronger on Tuesday on fresh selling of American currency by banks and exporters. Besides, healthy growth in the domestic equity market also added to the rupee gains. Traders took support with the finance ministry's statement that GST collections crossed the Rs 1 lakh crore-mark for the fifth month in a row in February, rising 7 per cent annually to over Rs 1.13 lakh crore, indicating economic recovery. Adding optimism, Crisil report stated that on the back of timely government and regulatory measures this fiscal, which helped the economy to recover faster than expected, bank credit is seen growing 400-500 bps to 9-10 percent in the next financial year. On the global front, dollar rose to its highest level in a month against its basket on Tuesday and riskier currencies fell back, as underlying concerns about rising bond yields drove investors back into safe-haven assets. Finally, the rupee ended at 73.37, 18 paise stronger from its previous close of 73.55 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyer in equity segment, while net seller in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7929.62 crore against gross selling of Rs 7080.21 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 388.83 crore against gross selling of Rs 1160.24 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5.50 crore against gross selling of Rs 32.76 crore.

 

The US markets settled lower on Tuesday after a wobbly day, pulled down by losses in Apple and Tesla, giving back some of their big gains from a day earlier. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Wednesday on optimism that US stimulus will energise the global economic recovery. Indian markets ended higher for second straight session on Tuesday with gains in Auto and IT stocks as some semblance of calm returned to global bond markets after last week's turmoil. Today, continuing their rising trend for third straight session, the markets are likely make positive start mirroring gains in Asian peers. Traders will be taking encouragement principal economic advisor to the finance ministry Sanjeev Sanyal's statement that Indian economy is recovering faster than expected and the government will spend on building infrastructure rather than boosting consumer demand artificially. Some support will come as RBI governor Shaktikanta Das expressed optimism about the overall COVID-19 situation following the rollout of the vaccines and complimented all the SAARC central banks for their efforts in combating the pandemic. However, there may be some cautiousness as India's tally of coronavirus cases has risen to 11,139,323, with a daily increase of 15,704 in total cases. Death toll has reached 157,385, with 110 fatalities in a day. India's count of active cases has jumped to 171,776. The country continues to be second-most-affected globally, and ranks 13th among worst-hit nations by active cases. Auto stocks will be in focus with a private report that Domestic commercial vehicle (CV) sales in February grew in line with a pick-up in manufacturing and infrastructure activities. While the truck segment reported positive growth, the bus segment continues to be in red. Besides, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has asked automakers to build flex-engine vehicles for using alternative fuel. There will be some reaction in oil & gas sector stocks with report that India's fuel consumption is likely to rise nearly 10 per cent in the fiscal year beginning April 1, as a reflating economy drives petrol and diesel demand. Telecom stocks will be in limelight as India's first auction of telecom spectrum in five years ended with Rs 77,814.80 crore of airwaves being acquired, mostly by Reliance Jio which picked up 488.35 MHz of spectrum for Rs 57,122.65 crore. Bharti Airtel acquired 355.45 MHz at Rs 18,698.75 crore, and Vodafone Idea with 11.80 MHz for Rs 1,993.40 crore. Meanwhile, MTAR Technologies' Rs 596 crore initial public offering (IPO) will open for subscription today. The company is selling shares in the price band of Rs 574-575 per share.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

14,919.10

14,800.24

14,998.54

BSE Sensex

50,296.89

49,922.74

50,555.44

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

1,277.08

345.75

332.40

353.15

NTPC

536.49

112.55

109.06

114.86

Indian Oil Corporation

457.20

102.20

101.26

103.61

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

363.03

113.50

111.95

115.85

State Bank of India

305.34

394.20

389.99

398.99

 

  • Cipla has received final approval for its ANDA for Sumatriptan Nasal Spray, 20 mg from the USFDA. 
  • Bharti Airtel has acquired 355.45 MHz spectrum across Sub GHz, mid band and 2300 MHz bands for a total consideration of Rs 18,699 crore in the latest spectrum auction.  
  • Bajaj Auto has launched the new version of its 102 cc bike Platina 100 Electric Start priced at Rs 53,920 (ex-showroom Delhi). 
  • SBI has reduced interest rates on home loans by up to 10 basis points and is offering loans starting from a 6.70 percent rate.
News Analysis