Indian equity benchmarks ended marginally in the red on Tuesday, as caution prevailed ahead of the F&O expiry on Wednesday. Markets made a positive start as traders took some support with SBI Research in its latest Ecowrap report stating that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to pause their interest rate hike and the current 6.5 per cent repo rate could be the terminal rate for now. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for the first week of April 2023. Some support also came with Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal's statement that India will be looking to push the rupee trade agenda in the G-20 meetings it is organising as part of its ongoing presidency of the forum. He added rupee trade will be of help, especially with those countries whose currencies are under pressure. But, key gauges soon erased gains and traded volatile, as foreign fund outflows dented the domestic sentiments. FPIs returned to their old ways by selling shares to the tune of Rs 890 crore on March 27. Traders were also seen taking a note of report that the finance ministry has asked public sector banks (PSBs) to do proper monitoring of top loans and make adequate provisions for pledged shares of big corporates in view of the current global financial scenario emanating from the failure of some international banks in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, Markets regulator Sebi has simplified the procedural requirements for onboarding of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in a bid to facilitate ease of doing business and to reduce the time taken for their registration. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 40.14 points or 0.07% to 57,613.72 and the CNX Nifty was down by 34.00 points or 0.20% to 16,951.70.

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday after turning in a lackluster performance early in the session. The weakness that emerged on Markets partly reflected ongoing concerns about the outlook for interest rates amid a continued increase in treasury yields. Investors weighed comments from a top U.S. regulator on struggling banks and sold shares of technology-related names after their recent strong run. Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's top banking regulator, told a Senate panel that Silicon Valley Bank did a terrible job of managing risk before its collapse. Meanwhile, trading activity remained relatively subdued as traders await additional news out of the banking sector as well as some key U.S. economic data later in the week. Friday's report on personal income and spending in the month of February is likely to be in focus, as it includes a reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve. With the Fed signaling last week that it expects just one more interest rate increase this year, traders will look to the data for clues about the timing of the final rate hike. On the economic data front, the Conference Board released a report unexpectedly showing a slight improvement in U.S. consumer confidence in the month of March. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index inched up to 104.2 in March from an upwardly revised 103.4 in February. The modest increase surprised street, who had expected the consumer confidence index to slip to 101.0 from the 102.9 originally reported for the previous month.

Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday amid expectations of higher demand from China. According to an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum Corp., China's crude oil imports will likely rise 6.2% this year to 540 million tonnes. Further, easing concerns about global banking sector woes and news about supply disruption risks from Iraq contributed to the jump in oil prices. Meanwhile, Iraq's decision to halt exports from Kurdistan resulted in a loss of 450,000 barrels per day, or about half a percent of global oil supply. Besides, a weaker U.S. dollar helped as well. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery rose $0.39 or about 0.5 percent to settle at $73.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery surged $0.53 or about 0.68 percent to settle at $78.65 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended higher against the US dollar on Tuesday tracking a weak American currency in the overseas market. Traders got support with SBI Research in its latest Ecowrap report stating that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to pause their interest rate hike and the current 6.5 per cent repo rate could be the terminal rate for now. Meanwhile, markets regulator Sebi has simplified the procedural requirements for onboarding of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in a bid to facilitate ease of doing business and to reduce the time taken for their registration. On the global front, U.S. dollar fell slightly on Tuesday as receding fears of a full-blown banking crisis slowed demand for so-called safe haven assets. Finally, the rupee ended at 82.16 (Provisional), stronger by 15 paise from its previous close of 82.31 on Monday.

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4774.51 crore against gross selling of Rs 5397.26 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 475.53 crore against gross selling of Rs 240.25 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.76 crore against gross selling of Rs 6.83 crore.

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday as investors weighed comments from a top US regulator on struggling banks and sold shares of technology-related names after their recent strong run. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Wednesday with Hong Kong markets rallying after tech giant Alibaba announced it would split into six business groups. Indian markets fluctuated before ending marginally lower on Tuesday despite positive cues from global markets. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start amid mixed cues from the global markets as a deal between First Citizens BancShares and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) brought a sigh of relief to investors rocked by wild swings in banking shares but caution persisted about higher-for-longer interest rates. There will be some volatility in the markets ahead of F&O expiry later in the day. Market participants may remain on sidelines ahead of holiday on Thursday on account of Ram Navami. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FII) bought shares worth Rs 1,531.13 crore on March 28, National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed. Traders will be taking encouragement as Union Commerce & Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said Indian goods and services exports have crossed the $750 billion-mark for the first time. In 2021-22, the country's goods and services exports touched an all-time high of $422 billion and $254 billion respectively, taking the total shipments to $676 billion. Some support will come with a private report that India and China will contribute to half of the world's growth this year, and it highlighted that Asia will remain a crucial growth engine with an estimated 4.5 per cent GDP expansion, making it a standout performer amidst the global economic slowdown. Traders may take note of Fitch Ratings' statement that even as the Union Budget has outlined a Rs 10 trillion capital expenditure plan for 2023-24 to spur growth, domestic companies are likely to see a 10% to 12% increase in capital expenditure in the coming fiscal. There will be some reaction in logistics industry stocks as Union Home Minister Amit Shah said the government is working to bring down logistics cost to GDP to 7.5 per cent from the current 13 per cent. He said the logistics cost in India is 13 per cent to the GDP as compared eight per cent in the rest of the world, making it difficult for Indian exports to compete globally.

                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• Clean energy solutions provider Gentari has signed a MoU with Tata Motors for the delivery of 5,000 units of e-commercial vehicles over three years.
• Adani Enterprises' wholly owned subsidiary -- AMG Media Networks has completed the acquisition of 49% equity stake in Quint Digital Media, in accordance with the terms contemplated under the SPA. 
• Tech Mahindra has launched AceFin, a cognitive AI-based BPaaS solution designed to provide actionable insights (tactical & strategic) for Chief Finance Officers. 
• Reliance Industries' subsidiary -- Reliance Jio Infocomm has launched its entry level broadband plan at a price as low as Rs 198 per month.