Indian equity benchmarks ended lower by over a percent on Friday as investors preferred to book profit amid uncertainty over the US Fed rate cut timing and start of the Q4 earnings season. Benchmarks made a negative start and stayed in red for whole day as traders remained cautious with a private report that India's consumer price inflation likely eased to a five-month low of 4.91% in March but was still above the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term target as food price rises persist. Traders overlooked Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Report stating that the government's continued emphasis on infrastructure creation, coupled with an uptick in private corporate investment and buoyant business optimism, could nurture a sustained revival in the investment cycle, which augurs well for boosting productivity and growth in the economy. Traders also paid no heed towards report that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7 per cent from 6.7 per cent earlier, saying the robust growth will be driven by public and private sector investment demand and gradual improvement in consumer demand. Markets extended losses in second half of trading session, as some concern came amid a private report stating that the growing Indian economy is creating jobs, but mainly for the unskilled and semi-skilled workers. Graduates and those having higher qualifications, even with technical degrees and diplomas, are witnessing employment generation at a slow pace. Also, traders remained on sidelines ahead of the India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data to be out later in the day. Traders took a note of report that global rating agency Moody's has affirmed India's outlook at Baa3 and P-3, signaling stability. However, it has issued a warning that escalating political tensions or further weakening of checks and balances could harm the country's long-term growth trajectory. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 793.25 points or 1.06% to 74,244.90 and the CNX Nifty was down by 234.40 points or 1.03% points to 22,519.40.

The US markets ended deeply in red on Friday with Nasdaq settling lower by over 265 points as inflation worries and mixed earnings and guidance from major banks rendered the mood a bit bearish. Shares of Citigroup fell after reporting a 27 percent drop in net income at $3.4 billion in the first quarter, due to lower non-interest revenue, as well as higher expenses and cost of credit. JPMorgan Chase & Co. tumbled weighed down by lower net interest income. The lender reported a 6 percent increase in first quarter profit. For the first quarter, net income increased to $13.42 billion or $4.44 per share from $12.62 billion or $4.10 per share in the prior-year quarter. Further, inflation concerns continued to weigh on the markets, as the Labor Department released a report showing import prices in the U.S. increased by slightly more than expected in the month of March. The report said import prices climbed by 0.4 percent in March after rising by 0.3 percent in February. Street had expected import prices to increase by another 0.3 percent. Import prices also rose by 0.4 percent compared to the same month a year ago, marking the first year-over-year increase since January 2023. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said export prices rose by 0.3 percent in March after climbing by a revised 0.7 percent in February. The increase in export prices matched street estimates. Compared to the same month a year ago, export prices were down by 1.4 percent in March following a 1.8 percent slump in February. A report showing a bigger than expected drop in consumer sentiment in April weighed as well. The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment fell to 77.9 in April from 79.4 in March. Street had expected the index to edge down to 79.0. The report also said year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.1 percent in April from 2.9 percent in March, climbing just above the 2.3-3.0 percent range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.

Crude oil futures ended higher on Friday as traders weighed risk of Iran attack on Israel. Following the alleged Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, private report suggested that the top Iranian leadership is planning a retaliatory attack on Israel within the next 48 hours. Iran is said to be weighing the political risks of a direct attack on Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country will carry on with the war in Gaza. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery surged $0.64 or 0.8% to settle at $85.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery rose $0.71 or 0.79% to $90.45 per barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday weighed down by a massive sell-off in domestic equities and a strong greenback against major crosses overseas. Traders were cautious with a private report that India's consumer price inflation likely eased to a five-month low of 4.91% in March but was still above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% medium-term target as food price rises persist. Traders paid no heed towards report that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7 per cent from 6.7 per cent earlier, saying the robust growth will be driven by public and private sector investment demand and gradual improvement in consumer demand. On the global front, euro dropped to its lowest level since mid-November on Friday after the European Central Bank signalled it could cut rates as soon as June even with a hot U.S. economy likely forcing the Federal Reserve to wait until later in the year. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.48 (Provisional), weaker by 17 paise from its previous close of 83.31 on Wednesday.

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 13829.69 crore against gross selling of Rs 10599.31 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 3458.43 crore with gross sales of Rs 2081.86 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 14.36 crore against gross selling of Rs 15.69 crore.

The US markets ended lower on Friday amid fears of an imminent attack by Iran over Israel. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday after China's central bank left a key policy interest rate unchanged as widely expected when rolling over maturing medium-term loans. Indian markets ended sharply lower on Friday as investors preferred to book profit amid uncertainty over the US Fed rate cut timing, start of the Q4 earnings season. Today, markets are likely to get negative start of the holiday-shortened week amid weak global cues as well as higher global crude oil prices. Oil prices are likely to rise further after Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend, but further gains may depend on how Israel and the West choose to retaliate. Traders will be also concerned with a private report that exporters are in a wait-and-watch mode as they expect air freight volume to Europe to rise 10-15%, logistics and insurance costs to rise and engineering exports demand to Europe to get impacted following Iran's attack on Israel. However, positive macro-economic data may support the domestic indices later in the day. The government data showed that India's retail inflation eased to 4.85 per cent on an annual basis in March as against 5.09 per cent in the previous month. Also, data provided by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in India rose 5.7 per cent in February as against 3.8 per cent in January. IIP in December 2023 was recorded at 4.2 per cent. Some support may also come as the RBI said India's forex reserves jumped by $2.98 billion to a fresh peak of $648.562 billion for the week ended April 5. In the previous reporting week, the forex kitty had increased by $2.951 billion to $645.583 billion, which was an all-time high. There will be some reaction in aviation industry stocks with Icra's report that domestic air passenger traffic is likely to have witnessed an annual growth of 13 per cent at around 15.4 crore in 2023-24 and the aviation industry's net loss is expected to have declined to Rs 3,000 to 4,000 crore during the same period. It also said the airlines' ability to raise yields proportionate to their input cost increases will be key to expand their profitability margins while supply chain challenges and engine failure issues pose near term headwinds. Investors will be looking ahead to the March quarter (Q4FY24) results of GTPL Hathway, Hathway Bhawani Cabletel & Datacom, Metalyst Forgings, Ontic Finserve, Rajoo Engineers, Hit Kit Global Solutions, Shekhawati Poly-Yarn, Atam Valves, and Sybly Industries. Besides, TCS, IT major reported a net profit of Rs 12,434 crore, up 9.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) on Friday post market hours.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• Tata Motors' electric car making arm -- Tata Passenger Electric Mobility has signed a non-binding MoU with Shell India Markets to collaborate in establishing public charging stations across India.
• USFDA has issued Official Action Indicated status to Sun Pharmaceutical Industries' Dadra facility.
• Bharti Airtel has registered significant increase in 5G users across various States.
• TCS has reported 9.32% rise in its consolidated net profit at Rs 12,502 crore for Q4FY24 as compared to Rs 11,436 crore for the same quarter in the previous year.