Indian equity benchmarks gained over half a percent on Monday amid positive global cues and easing crude oil prices. Markets opened higher and sustained gains for most part of the session as traders took support with provisional data from the NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 1,659.27 crore on April 5, 2024. Traders took encouragement as a recent bi-monthly survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) from March 2 to March 11, 2024 showed that consumer confidence in India has soared to its highest level since mid-2019. The survey, which included 6,083 respondents, with females comprising 50.8 percent of the sample, revealed a significant uptick in consumer sentiment. Markets added some gains in late afternoon session, taking support with a latest data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showing that India's foreign exchange reserves rose to a new high for the third straight week, reaching $645.58 billion in the week ended March 29. The total reserves rose by $2.95 billion in the previous week. Some optimism also came as India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has put out a report maintaining a neutral outlook on the finances of Indian states for the fiscal year 2024-2025 (FY25), showing States' aggregate revenue deficit is projected to be 0.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY25, down from 0.5 per cent in FY24. The buoyancy in sentiment continued, led by sectorial tailwinds and Q4 earnings growth expectations. The Nifty, Sensex scaled fresh all-time highs in today's session but pared some of the early gains to settle around the day's highs. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 494.28 points or 0.67% to 74,742.50 and the CNX Nifty was up by 152.60 points or 0.68% points to 22,666.30.

The US markets ended mostly in red on Monday as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the release of closely watched inflation data later in the week. The Labor Department is scheduled to release its reports on consumer and producer inflation in the month of March on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Street currently expects consumer prices to rise by 0.3 percent in March following a 0.4 percent increase in February. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, are also expected to climb by 0.3 percent in March after rising by 0.4 percent in February. The annual rate of consumer price growth is expected to accelerate to 3.4 percent in March from 3.2 percent in February, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth is expected to slow to 3.7 percent for 3.8 percent. Producer prices are expected to rise by 0.3 percent in March after climbing by 0.6 percent in February, while the annual rate of producer growth is expected to jump to 2.3 percent from 1.6 percent. The inflation data could have a significant impact on the outlook for interest rates, as Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly said they need greater confidence inflation is slowing before cutting rates. On the sectoral front, most of the major sectors ended the day showing only modest moves, contributing to the lackluster close by the broader markets. Airline stocks showed a strong move to the upside, however, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index jumping by 1.8 percent.

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday amid easing geopolitical tensions following Israel removing its troops from Southern Gaza. According to private report, Israel has reduced the number of soldiers from southern Gaza as ceasefire talks are going on. However, a Hamas official reportedly said that no progress was made at the new round of Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo, also attended by delegations from Israel. Besides, private report said that China Construction Bank had filed a liquidation petition in Hong Kong against leading Chinese property developer Shimao Group Holdings has raised some concerns about the outlook for oil demand from the world's second largest economy. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery fell $0.48 or about 0.55% to settle at $86.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery dropped $0.79 or 0.86% to $90.38 per barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee settled flat on Monday as the support from positive domestic equities was negated by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market. Traders found some support as India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has put out a report maintaining a neutral outlook on the finances of Indian states for the fiscal year 2024-2025 (FY25), showing States' aggregate revenue deficit is projected to be 0.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY25, down from 0.5 per cent in FY24. Besides, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showing that India's foreign exchange reserves rose to a new high for the third straight week, reaching $645.58 billion in the week ended March 29. The total reserves rose by $2.95 billion in the previous week. On the global front, dollar paused on Monday as investors trained their sights on U.S. inflation data later this week, while the yen slipped close to 34-year lows as traders remained on alert for any potential action in Tokyo to support the weakening currency. Finally, the rupee ended flat with previous close of 83.31 on Friday.  

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 13097.09 crore against gross selling of Rs 11182.00 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1138.24 crore with gross sales of Rs 2764.11 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 85.98 crore against gross selling of Rs 76.19 crore.

The US markets ended mostly lower on Monday as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the release of closely watched inflation data later in the week. Asian markets were trading mostly in green in early deals on Tuesday amid investors awaited business confidence surveys from Australia and consumer confidence data from Japan, with focus also on U.S. inflation numbers to assess the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Indian equity benchmarks ended higher on Monday on account of hectic buying in Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra, NTPC and Larsen & Toubro companies' stocks. Today, markets are likely to make positive start on firm cues from other Asian markets. Falling crude oil prices overnight may also provide some support to domestic sentiments.  Traders may get support as European Parliament think tank expert, Angelos Delivorias said that India's GDP growth exceeding that of China reflects New Delhi's emergence as a formidable economic powerhouse in the global arena. Meanwhile, traders may take note of private report that India's consumer price inflation likely eased to a five-month low of 4.91% in March but was still above the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term target as food price rises persist. However, foreign fund outflows likely to put pressure on domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 684.68 crore on April 8, provisional data from the NSE showed. Further, some cautiousness may also prevail in the markets as Reserve Bank of India in its report said frequent weather shocks caused by climate change pose challenges for the monetary policy as well as downside risks to economic growth. Global average temperatures are on a rise, with accompanying increase in extreme weather events (EWE), and the economic and social impact of global warming is becoming increasingly evident.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• JSW Steel has reported the crude steel production for Q4FY24 at 6.79 million tonnes, that grew by 3% as against 6.58 million tonnes in Q4FY23 on consolidated basis.
• Axis Bank's subsidiary -- Axis MF has partnered with Enparadigm for exclusive learning journeys, to elevate the performance and productivity of their frontline, mid and, to an extent, senior employees.
• Reliance Industries' telecom arm -- Reliance Jio Infocomm has added 35.98 lakh customers (wireless subscribers) in February 2024.
• Bharti Airtel has deployed additional sites in Buldhana district to densify its network.