Indian equity benchmarks ended flat in a volatile session on Friday amid a negative trend in global markets. Markets made a cautious start and traded range bound throughout the session as six-member rate-setting panel of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent for the seventh time in a row. It also expressed concerns over food inflation given IMD's prediction of above-normal maximum temperatures during April-June. The RBI also retained GDP growth forecast of 7% for 2024-25 financial year, with June quarter growth at 7%, and September quarter at 6.9%. In the third and fourth quarter the growth is expected to be 7% each. This is lower than the 7.6% expansion estimated for FY24. Markets continued their lackluster trade in late afternoon deals, as provisional data from the NSE showed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 1,136.47 crore on April 4, 2024. Some cautiousness also came with ICRA's report that growth of the Indian Securitisation market is set to slow this fiscal year keeping the trend witnessed in the last quarter of fiscal 2024 as non-banking finance companies and banks get into co-lending reducing the demand for such papers. However, markets managed to erase all the losses to end flat as traders found support with the United Nations stating that India has become the world's fastest-growing major economy and a bright spot for the Asia-Pacific in 2023 amid strong household consumption and public investment in infrastructure. Some support also came with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das' statement that the consumption is likely to support economic growth in 2024-25, adding that urban consumption stayed buoyant. He said the resilience in cement production, together with strong growth in steel consumption and production and import of capital goods, augur well for the investment cycle to gain further traction. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 20.59 points or 0.03% to 74,248.22 and the CNX Nifty was down by 0.95 points to 22,513.70.

The US markets ended significantly higher on Friday as traders looked to pick up stocks at relatively reduced levels following the steep drop seen during Thursday's session, which dragged the Dow down to its lowest closing level in a month. Investors also reacted positively to a closely watched Labor Department report showing much stronger than expected job growth in the month of March. The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment spiked by 303,000 jobs in March after surging by a downwardly revised 270,000 jobs in February. Street had expected employment to jump by 200,000 jobs compared to the addition of 275,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. The report also said the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent in March from 3.9 percent in February, while street had expected the unemployment rate to come in unchanged. The stronger than expected job growth may have added to recent concerns about the outlook for interest rates, the report also showed a continued slowdown in the annual rate of wage growth. The Labor Department said the annual rate of wage growth slowed to 4.1 percent in March from 4.3 percent in February, in line with estimates. On the sectoral front, Gold stocks moved sharply higher following the pullback seen on Thursday, driving the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up by 3.3 percent to its best closing level in well over ten months. Significant strength was also visible among retail stocks, as reflected by the 1.7 percent gain being posted by the Dow Jones U.S. Retail Index. Software, semiconductor and housing stocks also saw considerable strength on the day, moving higher along with most of the other major sectors.

Magnifying its recent gains, crude oil futures ended higher on Friday amid supply worries due to geopolitical tensions. On the geopolitical front, Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel's strike on the Iran embassy in Damascus, Syria earlier in the week. Ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries also continued to raise concerns about supplies. Israel has reportedly closed 28 embassies around the world amid fears of retaliatory strikes from Iran. The decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies to keep the group's production cuts in place continued to support oil prices. Meanwhile, a report from Baker Hughes said the oil rig count in the U.S. rose by two to 508 this week. Benchmark crude oil futures for May delivery rose $0.32 or about 0.37% to settle at $86.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery gained $0.52 or 0.57% to $91.17 per barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday as the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has decided to Keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.50 per cent for the seventh consecutive time. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains unchanged at 6.25 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75 per cent. On the global front, dollar firmed against peer currencies on Friday after rebounding from a two-week low, as traders braced for a key U.S. jobs report due later in the day and grew cautious over tensions in the Middle East. Safe-haven bids, along with fresh warnings from Japanese authorities, helped to buoy the yen, which briefly hit a two-week high against the greenback. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.31 (Provisional), stronger by 8 paise from its previous close of 83.39 on Thursday.  

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 14011.85 crore against gross selling of Rs 14989.51 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1741.30 crore with gross sales of Rs 2590.17 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 63.54 crore against gross selling of Rs 19.53 crore.

The US markets ended in green on Friday after a strong jobs report reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy even as it suggested the Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Monday ahead of central bank decisions this week, with investors also awaiting inflation numbers from the US and China. Indian markets ended flat on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India kept repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent for a seventh straight policy. Today, benchmark indices are likely to open in green following broadly positive cues from global markets. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 1,659.27 crore on April 5, provisional data from the NSE showed. Traders will be taking encouragement as a recent bi-monthly survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) from March 2 to March 11, 2024 showed that consumer confidence in India has soared to its highest level since mid-2019. The survey, which included 6,083 respondents, with females comprising 50.8 percent of the sample, revealed a significant uptick in consumer sentiment. Some support will also come as a latest data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed that India's foreign exchange reserves rose to a new high for the third straight week, reaching $645.58 billion in the week ended March 29. The total reserves rose by $2.95 billion in the previous week. Besides, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has put out a report maintaining a neutral outlook on the finances of Indian states for the fiscal year 2024-2025 (FY25), showing States' aggregate revenue deficit is projected to be 0.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY25, down from 0.5 per cent in FY24. Banking stocks will be in focus as the Reserve Bank of India's weekly statistical supplement showed that Indian banks' loans rose 20.2% in the two weeks to March 22 from a year earlier, while deposits rose 13.5%. Outstanding loans rose Rs 1.21 trillion ($14.54 billion) to Rs 164.35 trillion in the two weeks to March 22. There will be some reaction in aviation industry stocks with a private report that the average daily international traffic to and from India decreased by 4.81 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M) to 196,050 in March as inbound tourism gradually receded with the onset of the summer season. Automobile industry stocks will be in limelight with a private report that electric-vehicle sales in India are expected to rise 66% this year after nearly doubling in 2023 as state subsidies help fuel demand and supporting infrastructure comes up in the country. The rapid growth in sales comes at a time when EV growth in other key markets such as the United States and China are slowing. There will be some reaction in Healthcare related stocks as Manipal Health Enterprises nears Rs 1,400 crore deal to acquire Medica. Post-acquisition, Manipal will become India's largest hospital chain with over 10,700 beds overtaking Apollo Hospitals in the process.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• Indusind Bank has reported 18% rise in net advances to Rs 3,42,857 crore (Provisional) as of March 31, 2024 (Q4FY24) as compared to Rs 2,89,924 crore in Q4FY23.
• HDFC Bank has sold 27,81,897 shares representing 3.03% of the share capital of Indraprastha Medical Corporation (Indraprastha).
• Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Bayer have entered into a partnership to market and distribute a second brand of Vericiguat in India.
• Bajaj Finance's new loans booked during Q4FY24 grew by 4% to 7.87 million (provisional) as compared to 7.56 million in Q4FY23.