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NSE Intra-day chart (30 December 2020)
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Market Commentary 31 December 2020
Markets to start final day of 2020 on negative note

 

A decent recovery in the final hour of the trade helped Indian equity benchmarks extend their winning streak to the sixth straight day, led by gains in Basic Materials, Auto, Realty and Metal stocks. The benchmark indices made positive start, but quickly pared the gains and spent rest of the session fluctuating between gains and losses, as traders remained anxious with reports that India witnessed a slight rise in fresh Covid cases with 20,529 cases. India's caseload now stands at 10,245,326. India had reported six cases of new coronavirus variant. But the government said the existing vaccines for Covid-19 will protect against the new variants as there is no evidence to prove otherwise. Sentiments remained in lackluster mood with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Report stated that the profitability of non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) may be dampened going ahead due to the loan impairment and lower credit demand. But, it said many NBFCs have made additional provisioning as per expected credit loss (ECL) norm; and bolstered their capital position by ploughing back dividends. However, late buying and positive trends in the European stocks helped the indices rebound and end at record closing high levels. Some respite also came with Former RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao Rao's statement that though Covid -19 and the subsequent lockdown left a trail of economic devastation on most countries, India can potentially build upon three positive aspects- push in the rural economy, stronger federalism and a huge consumption base. Adding to the optimism, government approved the 15th tranche of electoral bonds which will be open for sale between January 1 and January 10. Electoral bonds have been pitched as an alternative to cash donations made to political parties as part of efforts to bring transparency in political funding. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 133.14 points or 0.28% to 47,746.22, while the CNX Nifty was up by 49.35 points or 0.35% to 13,981.95.

                             

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday as traders made another attempt at window dressing going into the end of the year after profit taking set in following an early advance on Tuesday. Reports that U.K. regulators have approved a coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca (AZN) and the University of Oxford for emergency use also generated some positive sentiment. However, the upcoming New Year's Day holiday on Friday kept overall trading activity relatively subdued. Traders also kept an eye on developments in Washington, as lawmakers haggle over increasing stimulus checks to $2,000 from $600. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ken., blocked Democratic efforts to fast-track a House approved measure to increase the size of the checks. McConnell has instead proposed a bill that would tie the bigger stimulus checks to the repeal of a provision that protects social media platforms and the creation of an election fraud commission. On the economic data front, the National Association of Realtors released a report showing a continued decrease in US pending home sales in the month of November. NAR said its pending home sales index slid 2.6 percent to 125.7 in November after falling by 0.9 percent to 129.1 in October. Street had expected pending home sales to come in unchanged.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday lifted by data showing a larger than expected decline US crude inventories in the week ended December 25. A weaker dollar also contributed to oil's uptick. Data released by the Energy Information Administration showed crude inventories in the US fell by 6.1 million barrels last week, significantly more than an expected drop of about 3.8 million barrels. A report released by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday said US crude inventories dropped by 4.79 million barrels last week to 492.9 million barrels, much bigger than an expected drop of about 3.1 million barrels. Crude oil futures for February rose $0.40 or 0.8 percent to settle at $48.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. February Brent crude gained $0.27 or 0.52 percent to settle at $51.50 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended significantly higher against dollar on Wednesday. Traders took solace with former RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao Rao's statement that though Covid -19 and the subsequent lockdown left a trail of economic devastation on most countries, India can potentially build upon three positive aspects- push in the rural economy, stronger federalism and a huge consumption base. A weaker greenback in the overseas markets also supported the rupee. On the global front, dollar sunk to its lowest in more than two years in Asian trading on Wednesday and riskier currencies surged, as investors looked past the latest delay in US fiscal stimulus and bet that global market risk appetite would increase in 2021. Finally, the rupee ended at 73.31, 11 paise stronger from its previous close of 73.42 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyer in equity segment, while net seller in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5460.31 crore against gross selling of Rs 3049.05 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 522.64 crore with gross sales of Rs 540.22 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 22.98 crore against gross selling of Rs 52.41 crore.

 

US markets ended higher on Wednesday as $600 stimulus checks were set to hit the bank accounts of millions of Americans later this week. Asian markets are trading mostly higher in early deals on Thursday. Indian benchmark equity indices ended at record levels on Wednesday led by gains in metal and auto stocks. Today, the markets are likely to make pessimistic start of the final day of 2020, as traders will remain concern on report that total liabilities of the government increased to Rs 107.04 lakh crore at end-September 2020 from Rs 101.3 lakh crore at end-June 2020. This represented a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6 per cent in Q2 FY21. Public debt accounted for 91.1 per cent of total outstanding liabilities at end-September 2020. The weighted average yield on primary issuances of dated securities showed further moderation to 5.80 per cent in Q2 of FY21 from 5.85 per cent in Q1 FY21. Meanwhile, India's current account surplus moderated to $15.5 billion (2.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product) in quarter ended September 2020 (Q2FY21) from $19.2 billion (3.8 per cent of GDP) in (Q1FY21). The current account balance was in deficit to the tune of $7.6 billion in Q2 of 2019-20 (1.1 per cent of GDP). Besides, FIEO said that the country's exports may reach USD 290 billion by the end of this fiscal as the outbound shipments were hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic during the first half of the year. However, some support will come as the commerce ministry said an import monitoring system is being developed for several sectors, including aluminium, copper, footwear, furniture, sports goods, and gym equipment. The system would help gather advanced information on imports of these products and make it available to the stakeholders, including government and domestic industries. The system is already in place for steel and coal.  Traders may take note of report that President Vladimir Putin expressed hope that next year Russia and India would continue to work towards stepping up constructive bilateral cooperation as well as coordinating efforts to address topical issues on the regional and global agendas.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

13,981.95

13,898.93

14,030.98

BSE Sensex

47,746.22

47,467.10

47,916.59

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

385.76

184.85

181.70

186.70

State Bank of India

309.72

275.50

272.43

278.63

NTPC

302.81

99.05

98.28

99.73

UPL

217.54

465.80

460.57

471.72

ICICI Bank

213.65

527.60

523.77

532.22

 

  • Reliance Industries has completed the acquisition of equity shares of IMG Reliance (IMG-R) from IMG Singapore.
  •  Larsen & Toubro has opened Planet L&T, a digitally-enabled Corporate Experience Centre that provides an immersive-experience through 12 high-tech zones.
  •  State Bank of India is rolling out a new cheque payment system from next year.
  •  Bajaj Finserv's subsidiary company -- Bajaj Allianz General Insurance has in association with Jammu & Kashmir Government launched the Ayushman Bharat-Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana.
News Analysis