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NSE Intra-day chart (29 November 2022)
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Market Commentary 30 November 2022
Markets likely to get cautious start ahead of Q2 GDP data

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended at record closing highs yet again on Tuesday, aided by an uptick in fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), Consumer Durables and Metal stocks. After the cautious start, markets gradually inched higher and continued their positive trend for whole day, amid a largely firm trend in other Asian markets. Sentiments remained optimistic as the data showed that foreign portfolio investors have infused funds worth Rs 32,344 crore in Indian stock markets so far in the month of November and became net buyers again. Some support also came in as the RBI released quarterly statistics on deposits and credit highlighting bank credit growth to 17.2 per cent on an annual basis in September from 14.2 per cent a quarter ago. However, markets cut some of the gains towards the end, as some concern came with SBI Research stating that India's economic growth for the July to September quarter may slow to 5.8 per cent, 30 basis points lower than average estimates, dragged down by weak manufacturing sector and steep corporate margin compression. But, key gauges managed to end the session at record closing highs, taking support from the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest report Data on ECB/FCCB showing that Indian companies raised $1.43 billion ($1,42,99,20,622) through external commercial borrowings (ECBs) in for the month of October 2022. Traders took note of report that senior officials of India and the European Union (EU) on November 28 commenced the third round of talks on a proposed free trade agreement, which aims at boosting trade and investments between the two regions. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 177.04 points or 0.28% to 62,681.84 and the CNX Nifty was up by 55.30 points or 0.30% to 18,618.05.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Tuesday as traders struggled to recover from sharp losses suffered in the previous session. Investors were watching for data coming later this week, including JOLTS job openings on Wednesday and November payrolls Friday, for insight into how the economy is performing. They were also waiting for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings on Wednesday for clues into whether the central bank will slow or stop interest rate hikes. The choppy trading on markets came amid lingering uncertainty about the situation in China following widespread protests over the country's Covid restrictions. On the sectoral front, despite the lackluster performance by the broader markets, gold stocks moved sharply higher in the day, driving the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index up by 2.9 percent. Significant strength was also visible among steel stocks, as reflected by the 2.8 percent surge by the NYSE Arca Steel Index. On the economic data front, citing a recent increase in gas prices, the Conference Board released a report showing a modest decrease in U.S. consumer confidence in the month of November. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dipped to 100.2 in November from a revised 102.2 in October. Street had expected the index to slip to 100.0 from the 102.5 originally reported for the previous month. The modest decrease by the headline index came as the present situation index edged down to 137.4 in November from 138.7 in October. The report showed the expectations index also fell to 75.4 in November from 77.9 in October, as consumers remain pessimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook. The Conference Board said consumers were also more downbeat about the short-term labor market outlook as well as their short-term income prospects.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday on hopes the Chinese government will consider relaxing its zero-Covid policy sometime soon.  China reported the first decrease in new Covid infections in more than a week on Monday, generating some positive sentiment. Chinese health officials also released a plan to boost vaccinations for elderly people and said they are closely watching the virus as it evolves and mutates. Further, investors are also hoping the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known collectively as OPEC+, will look to support prices. The group is scheduled to meet later this week. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery rose $0.96 or about 1.2 percent at $78.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery gained $0.68 or about 0.82 percent to settle at $84.57 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Rupee ended weaker against dollar on Tuesday on account of continued dollar demand from importers and banks. Some concerns came after SBI Research in its latest report has expressed cautiousness over India's economic situation and pencilled the country's GDP growth for the second quarter (Q2) at 5.8 per cent, down 30 basis points from average estimates citing a weak manufacturing sector coupled with the steep margin compression. On the global front, sterling gained against the dollar on Tuesday as the safe-haven greenback fell against most currencies as market sentiment improved on hopes that China would ease its strict COVID-19 curbs. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.71 (Provisional), weaker by 3 paise from its previous close of 81.68 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9772.50 crore against gross selling of Rs 7157.52 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 550.82 crore against gross selling of Rs 320.01 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 9.56 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Tuesday with losses in Apple and Amazon ahead of an upcoming speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that could provide hints about magnitude of future interest rate hikes. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday ahead of the release of data on China's November factory activity, in which analysts are expecting to see a contraction for the second time in a row. Indian markets extended their rally for a sixth straight session to hit fresh record highs on Tuesday on the back of firm global cues and a weakening dollar in overseas markets. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start of last trading session of November month amid lackluster global cues. Investors will be eyeing the Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) numbers to be out later in the day. There are expectations that India's economic output likely slowed in July to September from a year earlier and also from the double-digit growth in the previous quarter, hurt by rising policy rates to tame inflation, weakness in the country's manufacturing sector and widening trade gap. However, foreign fund inflows likely to aid domestic sentiments. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have net-bought shares worth Rs 1,241.57 crore on November 29, as per provisional data available on the NSE. Traders may take note of Hardeep Singh Puri, Union Minister of Housing and Urban Affairs' statement that it is estimated that 700-900 million sq meters of built environment will need to be added to Indian cities each year to fully harness their economic potential. Besides, the Finance Ministry has called a meeting of CEOs of banks, including top six private sector lenders, on December 5 to discuss ways to promote cross-border trade in the rupee instead of the US dollar. There will be some buzz in the garment sector stocks as The Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC) said the free trade agreement between India and the UAE is giving duty free access to the garment sector and it will help increase share of domestic exports in that country. Metal stocks will be in focus as private report stated that India's finished steel imports from Russia during April-October rose to their highest in at least four years, underscoring Moscow's bid to divert shipments in the wake of Western sanctions. There will be some reaction in pharma stocks with report that the government needs to set up a separate ministry for the pharma sector to encourage domestic producers and decrease Chinese imports. In primary market, Uniparts India's Rs 835 crore IPO will open for subscription today. The price band is fixed at Rs 548-577.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

18,618.05

18,554.10

18,680.05

BSE Sensex

62,681.84

62,400.14

62,925.46

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

406.61

106.05

104.79

107.49

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

135.58

140.30

139.50

141.10

ICICI Bank

130.96

946.85

936.96

953.31

ITC

101.89

342.45

339.96

344.96

Tata Motors

86.30

432.65

428.84

437.19

 

  • Tata Motors has inked MoU with IndusInd Bank to offer an exclusive Electric Vehicle Dealer Financing solution to its authorized passenger EV dealers.
  • SBI's board has approved for raising of Infrastructure Bonds up to an amount of Rs 10,000 crore through a public issue or private placement, during FY23.
  • ICICI Bank has launched iLens, a digital lending solution, powered by the Tata Consultancy Services lending platform. 
  • Cipla has launched Leuprolide Acetate Injection Depot 22.5mg.
News Analysis