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NSE Intra-day chart (28 December 2023)
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Market Commentary 29 December 2023
Markets to get flat-to-positive start on last trading session of the year 2023

In a volatile session, Indian equity benchmarks ended Thursday's trading session at record closing peaks and also finished higher for the fifth consecutive session, fuelled by a global rally over the optimism that the US central bank would start cutting rates as soon as next March. Markets made a positive start and extended the gains as the day progressed, as traders took support with provisional data from the NSE showing that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers for the first time in the last seven consecutive sessions, buying shares worth Rs 2,926.05 crore on December 27. Some optimism also came with a report released by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) showing that India is set to become the world's third-largest economy by 2032, and will eventually surpass China and the United States to become the world's largest economic superpower by the end of this century. It added India will sustain robust economic growth, averaging 6.5 percent from 2024 to 2028. Markets extended gains in late afternoon deals, taking support from data showing that investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes (P-Note) jumped to Rs 1.31 lakh crore by the end of November 2023, bouncing back from a decline in the previous month, owing to the robust performance of the domestic market. Before registering a decline in October, investments through P-notes have been increasing continuously since March, following the stable Indian economy against an uncertain global macro backdrop. Sentiments remained positive with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar's statement that India will begin trade negotiations with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) bloc of countries for a free trade deal in January. Traders took a note of the Department of Financial Services Secretary Vivek Joshi's statement that India Inc needs to think big and bold, and kickstart a new private sector investment cycle. Joshi also asked banks to include stress testing of cyber risks as part of the risk assessment framework. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 371.95 points or 0.52% to 72,410.38 and the CNX Nifty was up by 123.95 points or 0.57% to 21,778.70.

The US markets ended flat with mostly positive on Thursday. Markets turned in a lackluster performance during trading. The choppy trading on markets came even after the Labor Department released a report showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose by more than expected in the week ended December 23rd. The report said initial jobless claims climbed to 218,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level of 206,000. Street had expected jobless claims to inch up to 210,000 from the 205,000 originally reported for the previous week. While the data added to optimism about the outlook for interest rates, traders remained reluctant to make significant moves going into the end of the year. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released a report showing pending home sales were unexpectedly unchanged in the month of November. NAR said its pending home sales index stayed at 71.6 in November after tumbling by a revised 1.2 percent in October. Street had expected pending home sales to jump by 1.0 percent compared to the 1.5 percent slump originally reported for the previous month. On the sectoral front, reflecting the lackluster performance by the broader markets, most of the major sectors showed only moves on the day. Gold stocks saw considerable weakness, however, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index tumbling by 2.5 percent after ending Wednesday's trading at a five-month closing high. The weakness among gold stocks came as the price of gold for February delivery fell $9.60 to $2,083.50 an ounce.

Crude oil futures ended deeply lower on Thursday on easing concerns about trade disruptions after several shipping companies announced their decision to resume transit via the Red Sea. Crude oil prices fell despite data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing crude stockpiles fell by nearly 7 million barrels in the week ended December 22, as against an expected drop of 2.7 million barrels. Meanwhile, Gasoline stocks dropped by 0.575 million barrels last week, as against a 0.208 million barrels build, while distillate stockpiles increased 0.833 million barrels, compared with expectations of an increase of 0.6 million barrels. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery fell by $2.34 or 3.2 percent to settle at $71.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for March delivery dropped by $2.39 or 3 percent to settle at $77.15 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee snapped its two-day downtrend to end higher against the US dollar on Thursday, amid a weak American currency overseas and a rally in domestic equity markets. The inflow of foreign funds and a downward trend in crude oil prices also supported the Indian currency. Traders took support with a report released by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) showing that India is set to become the world's third-largest economy by 2032, and will eventually surpass China and the United States to become the world's largest economic superpower by the end of this century. It added India will sustain robust economic growth, averaging 6.5 percent from 2024 to 2028. On the global front, the dollar fell across the board on Thursday with the Japanese yen, euro, and pound all at their strongest against the greenback in five months as bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates sharply in 2024 continued to drive markets. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.19 (Provisional), stronger by 15 paise from its previous close of 83.34 on Wednesday.

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10903.88 crore against gross selling of Rs 7700.64 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 747.61 crore with gross sales of Rs 131.20 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 38.75 crore against gross selling of Rs 40.42 crore.

The US markets ended mostly higher on Thursday as Wall Street looks to end a winning year on a high note and possibly a new milestone. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday with investors assessing prospects of electric vehicle companies after China's Xiaomi unveiled its first EV. Indian markets hit new highs for the second consecutive day on Thursday as the markets wager on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. Today, the last trading session of the year 2023 will get a flat-to-positive start tracking positive cues from global peers. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid sentiments. Provisional data from the NSE showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 4,358.99 crore on December 28. Sentiments will get a boost as Assocham said India is likely to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world in 2024 on the back of strong consumer demand leading to a pick up in investment across sectors such as construction, hospitality and infrastructure including railways and aviation. Some support will come with report that the government is working on boosting domestic manufacturing and increasing exports to $500 billion by 2030 from 10-11 sectors. The 11 sectors are auto components, automobiles (including EVs), capital goods, chemicals, drones, medical devices, aerospace and defence, leather and footwear, textiles, and space. Overall, the ministry is looking at taking the country's goods and services exports to $2 trillion by 2030. Besides, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said the National E-commerce Policy is in final stages of discussion and will be announced soon. There will be some buzz in the banking stocks as the RBI's Financial Stability Report said that the increase in risk weights for personal loans and loans to non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) may lead to a decline in the capital adequacy ratio of 71 basis points (bps) of the banking system. Oil marketing companies' stocks will be in focus with a private report that the Petroleum Ministry has prepared a proposal incorporating the cuts on petrol and diesel ahead of general elections of 2024. As per the report, the cuts could be in the range of Rs 4 to Rs 10 per litre. There will be some reaction in stocks related to plastic industry as the Plastic Export Promotion Council (Plexconcil) said plastic exports from India witnessed a yearly decline of 5.6 per cent in November to $892 million mainly due to drop in shipments of miscellaneous products. In November 2022, the total plastic exports stood at $945 million. Meanwhile, Innova Captab shares will debut on the stock exchanges on Friday at an issue price of Rs 448 apiece.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

21,778.70

21,703.99

21,827.44

BSE Sensex

72,410.38

72,203.78

72,550.67

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Power Grid

391.64

237.95

234.71

240.56

NTPC

375.92

315.45

310.30

318.05

Tata Steel

346.61

138.25

137.15

139.05

Coal India

283.10

381.00

370.36

387.06

ICICI Bank

249.16

1005.55

999.20

1011.80

  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured key orders for its Power Transmission & Distribution business in the Middle East region.
  • Tata Motors has accelerated Bengaluru's electrified public transport with the delivery of technologically-advanced Starbus EVs to Bengaluru Metropolitan Transport Corporation.
  • NTPC is planning towards listing its green energy vertical in the next 1-2 years, as it anticipates higher demand going forward.
  • Reliance Industries' telecom arm -- Reliance Jio Infocomm is working with Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay to launch a 'Bharat GPT' programme.

News Analysis