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NSE Intra-day chart (28 January 2021)
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Market Commentary 29 January 2021
Markets likely to get positive start ahead of Economic Survey


Indian equity benchmarks ended a disappointed day of trade deep in red on Thursday amid expiry of the January series of the Futures and Options (F&O) contracts, and ahead of the Union Budget announcement next week. Markets made gap-down opening and stayed in red for whole day, as traders were concerned as India recorded 11,752 fresh cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19). The caseload tally stands at 10,702,031. Globally, more than 101.4 million people have been infected by the virus. The country continues to be second-most-affected globally, and ranks 14th among worst-hit nations by active cases. The five most affected states by total cases are Maharashtra (2,013,353), Karnataka (936,955), Kerala (899,932), Andhra Pradesh (887,238), and Tamil Nadu (835,803). Traders took note of report that PE/VC investments in 2020 were at par with the previous year in terms of value at $47.6 billion as compared to $47.3 billion in 2019. Reliance Group entities topped the chart in 2020 with about $17.3 billion, which accounts for 36 per cent of the PE/VC investments in 2020. However, headline indices managed to trim some losses in late hour of session, taking support from report India's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) saw a significant jump in November 2020. FDI data released by the Commerce Ministry shows that total FDI in the month of November 2020 grew by a whopping 81 per cent to $10.15 billion against $5.6 billion in November 2019. FDI equity has also jumped to $8.5 billion as against $2.8 billion in November 2019, registering a growth of 70 per cent. Some support also came with Gita Gopinath, the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stating that India has entered 2021 with better prospects than what was expected last year and has been able to restore activity faster than many economies. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 535.57 points or 1.13% to 46,874.36, while the CNX Nifty was down by 149.95 points or 1.07% to 13,817.55.


The US markets ended higher on Thursday as traders looked to pick up stocks at somewhat reduced levels following the steep drop seen on Wednesday. Buying interest also have been generated by a report from the Labor Department showing a bigger than expected decline in first-time claims for US unemployment benefits in the week ended January 23rd. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell to 847,000, a decrease of 67,000 from the previous week's revised level of 914,000. Street had expected jobless claims to drop to 875,000 from the 900,000 originally reported for the previous week. Jobless claims declined for the second consecutive week after reaching a more than four-month high of 927,000 in the week ended January 9th. The Commerce Department released a report showing economic growth matched street estimate in the fourth quarter of 2020. The report said real gross domestic product jumped by 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter after skyrocketing by 33.4 percent in the third quarter. Despite the rebound in the second half of the year, GDP for 2020 contracted by 3.5 percent following the 2.2 percent growth seen in 2019. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed new home sales in the US rebounded in the month of December after falling for four consecutive months. The report said new home sales jumped by 1.6 percent to an annual rate of 842,000 in December after plunging by 12.6 percent to a revised rate of 829,000 in November.


Crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday as worries about the outlook for energy demand outweighed recent data showing a substantial drop in crude inventories in the US last week. Rising coronavirus cases, tighter lockdown restrictions and worries over delays in vaccine supplies raised concerns about energy demand and dragged down oil prices. Crude oil futures for March fell $0.51 or 1 percent to settle at $52.34 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. March Brent crude declined $0.42 or 0.7 percent to settle at $55.11 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Indian rupee ended lower against dollar on Thursday, on account of sustained dollar demand from importers and banks. Traders paid no heed toward with the Ministry of Commerce and Industry's statement that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from April to November 2020 have increased by 22 percent (YoY) to $58.37 billion - the highest for the first 8 months of any fiscal. Apart from this, the FDI equity inflows received during April-November 2020, rose by 37 percent (Y-o-Y) to $43.85 billion. Besides, losses in the local equity market also dampened sentiments. On the global front, pound retreated on Thursday from the multi-month highs it hit in the previous session, as investors tempered some of their optimism about COVID-19 vaccinations in the UK. Finally, the rupee ended at 73.05, 13 paise weaker from its previous close of 72.92 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net seller in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11951.61 crore against gross selling of Rs 12624.77 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 398.86 crore with gross sales of Rs 1378.26 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 18.26 crore against gross selling of Rs 20.01 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Thursday thanks to a broad rally as earnings season got off to a strong start and fears lessened around hedge funds selling long positions to cover shorts. Asian markets are trading mixed on Friday as shares stateside saw an overnight bounce from heavy losses suffered on Wednesday. Indian markets ended nearly a percent lower on Thursday, extending losses for the fifth consecutive session with the Nifty falling below 13,850, dragged mainly by losses in the IT and financial stocks. Today, the markets are likely to make optimistic start tracking overnight night rally on Wall Street. Investors will also react to the Economic Survey that will be tabled in the Parliament today. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will table the annual Economic Survey in Parliament for the growth projections for 2021-22. The Survey's gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for 2021-22 and estimates for the current year (2020-21) will be among the most tracked pieces of statistics as it would offer cues on how quickly the government expects the economy to accelerate to a faster lane. There may be some cautiousness as India witnessed a spike of 18,940 fresh cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), a day after recording only 11,666 cases. The total number of active cases in the country has fallen to 173,762, while the caseload tally stands at 10,720,971. Globally, more than 102 million people have been infected by the virus. The country continues to be second-most-affected globally, and ranks 13th among worst-hit nations by active cases. The five most affected states by total cases are Maharashtra (2,015,524), Karnataka (937,383), Kerala (905,591), Andhra Pradesh (887,349), and Tamil Nadu (836,315). Besides, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said that India and China have agreed to soon hold the 10th round of Corps Commander-level talks to take forward the de-escalation process in eastern Ladakh. Auto stocks will be in focus as Siam said automobile industry in India is going through a long-term structural slowdown as the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) across all major vehicle segments has witnessed a decline over the past three decades. There will be some reaction in power stocks with rating agency Ind-Ra's report that power generation in the country would continue to grow in fourth quarter of this fiscal year on the back of revival of electricity demand and adequate coal stocks at power plants. Meanwhile, IRFC will debut on the bourses today. The issue that ran between January 18-20 was subscribed 3.49 times. There will be lots of earnings reaction to keep the markets buzzing.


Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)



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