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NSE Intra-day chart (24 November 2023)
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Market Commentary 28 November 2023
Benchmarks likely to open in green amid falling crude oil prices

 

In a highly volatile trade, Indian equity benchmarks closed with marginal losses for the second straight session on Friday, weighed down by a drop in TECK, IT and FMCG stocks amid a lack of fresh buying triggers. After the flat start, markets oscillated in a narrow band till the end and finally settled with minor cuts as traders reluctant to make significant moves ahead of long weekend holiday. Traders took a note of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that NBFCs and small finance banks need to remain cautious while lending as suggested by the Reserve Bank. She said as a measure of caution the RBI has also alerted small finance banks, NBFCs to be careful that they don't go too far too soon and face any downside risks later. However, losses were limited as traders found some solace with PHDCCI's report stating that measures like comprehensive trade pacts, reduction in cost of capital, power, and land reforms will help boost India's exports of goods and services to $2 trillion by 2030. Some support also came with additional Secretary in the department of commerce Rajesh Agarwal stating that the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are getting greater importance in the upcoming Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) as these pacts provide huge opportunities for them to participate in global trade. Besides, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India is collaborating with the various ecommerce players to leverage the Districts as Export Hubs initiative and promote ecommerce exports from the country. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 47.77 points or 0.07% to 65,970.04 and the CNX Nifty was down by 7.30 points or 0.04% to 19,794.70.

 

The US markets ended lower on Monday after the Commerce Department released a report showing new home sales in U.S. pulled back sharply in the month of October after soaring in September. The report said new home sales plunged by 5.6 percent to an annual rate of 679,000 in October after spiking by 8.6 percent to a downwardly revised rate of 719,000 in September. Street had expected new home sales to tumble by 4.5 percent to a rate of 725,000 from the 759,000 originally reported for the previous month. Further, traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the release of some key economic data in the coming days. The Commerce Department's report on personal income and spending may be in the spotlight, as it includes readings on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve. Street currently expect the report to show the annual rate of consumer price growth slowed to 3.1 percent in October from 3.4 percent in September. Core price growth is expected to slow to 3.5 percent from 3.7 percent. Traders were also keep an eye on reports on consumer confidence, weekly jobless claims, pending home sales and manufacturing activity. On the sectorial front, reflecting the lackluster performance by the broader markets, most of the major sectors ended the day showing only modest moves. Transportation stocks saw considerable weakness, however, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average falling by 1.3 percent after ending last Friday's trading at its best closing level in a month. Notable weakness was also visible among networking stocks, as reflected by the 1.2 percent loss posted by the NYSE Arca Networking Index.

 

Crude oil futures ended lower on Monday, but finished above the session's lows, amid traders weighed prospects for further production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - known together as OPEC+ - when they meet later this week.  Oil producers, who were originally scheduled to meet on November 26, postponed their meeting as they reportedly struggle to come to a consensus on reaching an agreement to curb supplies into 2024. According to private reports, African members like Angola, Congo and Nigeria refused to accept the supply cuts proposed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery fell $0.68 or about 0.9 percent to settle at $ 74.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $0.60 or about 0.7 percent to settle at $ 79.98 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Rupee settled lower against dollar on Friday tracking higher demand for U.S. dollars from importers and a weak tone among Asian currencies. Investors were worried despite private report stating that the Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services. Meanwhile, PHDCCI's report stated that measures like comprehensive trade pacts, reduction in cost of capital, power, and land reforms will help boost India's exports of goods and services to $2 trillion by 2030. On the global front, dollar slipped on Friday as investors bet U.S. interest rates have peaked, while the yen edged higher after Japan's core consumer price growth picked up, reinforcing views that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may soon roll back monetary stimulus. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.37 (Provisional), weaker by 3 paise from its previous close of 83.34 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8061.19 crore against gross selling of Rs 6627.53 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 202.18 crore with gross sales of Rs 1907.32 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.13 crore against gross selling of Rs 3.95 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Monday as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the release of some key economic data in the coming days. Asian markets are trading mostly in green in early deals on Tuesday as investors remained convinced the Federal Reserve was done with its rate-hike cycle.  Indian equity markets ended in red on Friday after altering between gains and losses throughout the day. Markets were closed on Monday on account of Gurunanak Jayanti holiday. Today, markets are likely to make positive start amid falling crude oil prices. Traders may get support as S&P Global Ratings raised India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 6.4 per cent, from 6 per cent, saying that robust domestic momentum has offset headwinds from high food inflation and weak exports. Further, some support may also come in as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest data showed that India's foreign exchange reserves increased by $5.077 billion to $595.397 billion for the week ending November 17. There may be some encouragement in the markets as the commerce ministry is working to address issues related to non-tariff barriers and market access for domestic products in sub-Saharan African countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Ghana and Gulf nations to boost India's exports. Meanwhile, finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman urged tax officers to maintain the growth in direct tax collections at at least 17% in FY24, the level achieved in the previous financial year. There may be some buzz in steel industry related stocks as private report said that India's steel demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7 per cent to touch 190 Million Tonne (MT) level by 2030. The demand will be largely fuelled by construction and infrastructure sectors, which contribute 60-65 per cent to the demand. There may be some buzz in real estate industry report stock as private report said, buoyed by strong housing demand, the average residential property prices in key markets across the top seven Indian cities saw a significant surge in the last three years. It indicated that among the key micro markets, Hyderabad's Gachibowli recorded the highest 33 per cent jump in average residential prices between during the past three years (October 2020-October 2023), followed by Kondapur with a 31 per cent rise.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

19,794.70

19,764.75

19,828.75

BSE Sensex

65,970.04

65,875.52

66,083.11

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

147.19

126.05

125.40

126.85

HDFC Bank

82.35

1531.40

1523.11

1536.41

ICICI Bank

74.52

929.00

922.66

932.86

Power Grid

72.50

209.80

208.84

211.44

NTPC

71.49

253.80

252.25

256.10

 

  • ITC has launched a mobile application ITCMAARS (Metamarket for Advanced Agriculture and Rural Services) to provide crop advisory, market access and financial services to the farmers of West Bengal.
  •  JSW Steel has completed the Rs 750 crore investment in JSW Paints.
  •  Bajaj Finserv's wholly owned subsidiary -- Bajaj Finserv Asset Management has launched the Bajaj Finserv Balanced Advantage Fund, an open-ended dynamic asset allocation fund.
  •  IndusInd Bank has entered into an association with Indraprastha Gas, to facilitate the acceptance of Digital Rupee, the CBDC launched by the Reserve Bank of India in 2022.
News Analysis