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NSE Intra-day chart (27 September 2023)
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FII Activity(Rs. Cr)
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Market Commentary 28 September 2023
Benchmarks likely to make flat-to-negative start on Thursday

 

Indian equity benchmarks cut initial losses and ended higher on Wednesday led by buying in select blue-chip stocks. Markets opened slightly lower and witnessed a sharp correction thereafter as persistent foreign fund outflows dented market sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 693.47 crore on September 26. As per a private report, FIIs have sold about $1.6 billion in Indian equities in September, the most since January 2023. The report added this trend was driven by elevated valuations in the domestic market and negative global cues.  However, key gauges recouped all of their losses in the second half of the session and traded in green as traders opted to buy beaten down but fundamentally strong stocks. Meanwhile, the central government has decided to stick to its market borrowing plan of Rs 6.55 trillion in the second half (October-March) of financial year 2023-24 (H2FY24), brushing aside pressure from tepid revenue growth and rising subsidy burden in the pre-election year. This will include the issuance of sovereign green bonds worth Rs 20,000 crore, as against the Rs 16,000 crore maiden green bonds issued in FY23. Sentiments remained positive in late afternoon deals, as the government has extended export benefits under the RoDTEP scheme for one more year till June 2024. The Scheme for Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) provides for refund of taxes, duties and levies that are incurred by exporters in the process of manufacturing and distribution of goods and are not being reimbursed under any other mechanism at the centre, state or local level. Adding to the optimism, the various Ministries/ Departments of Government of India have accepted more than 10,000 claims of the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) under Vivad se Vishwas - I scheme aimed at providing relief to MSMEs for the COVID-19 Pandemic period. This has led to grant of more than Rs 256 crore to MSMEs and increased flow of bank credit through freeing up of guarantees. Traders took note of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that their aim is to make India a global growth engine and that the country will soon emerge as an economic powerhouse of the world. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 173.22 points or 0.26% to 66,118.69 and the CNX Nifty up by 51.75 points or 0.26% to 19,716.45.

 

The US markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday as some traders made another attempt at bargain hunting following yesterday's sell-off but concerns about the outlook for interest rates continue to hang over the markets. Meanwhile, a possible shutdown has added to worries for stock investors as they grapple with benchmark Treasury yields that have climbed to 16-year highs after the Federal Reserve last week signaled a hawkish long-term path for interest rates. On the sectoral front, while most of the major sectors showed only modest moves on the day, energy stocks saw substantial strength amid a sharp increase by the price of crude oil. With crude for November delivery soaring $3.29 to $93.68 a barrel amid concerns about tight supplies, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index spiked by 3.4 percent and the NYSE Arca Oil Index surged by 2.4 percent. On the economic data front, the Commerce Department released a report unexpectedly showing a modest rebound in new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the month of August. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders crept up by 0.2 percent in August after plunging by a revised 5.6 percent in July. The uptick surprised participants, who had expected durable goods orders to fall by 0.5 percent compared to the 5.2 percent nosedive that had been reported for the previous month. Excluding a modest decrease in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.4 percent in August after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in July. Street had expected ex-transportation orders to edge up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.5 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

 

Crude oil futures ended deeply in red on Wednesday after data showing an unexpected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles in the week ended September 22. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories in the U.S. fell by 2.169 million barrels during the week ended September 22 versus expectations for a 0.9 million barrel increase. Gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.027 million barrels last week compared to forecasts for a drop of 0.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles increased by 0.398 million barrels versus the expected draw of 1 million barrels. The data also said Cushing inventories fell to the lowest level since July 2022. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery dropped $3.29 or 3.6 percent to settle at $93.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery fell $2.59 or 2.76 percent to settle at $96.55 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian Rupee ended higher against the US dollar on Wednesday amid positive cues from domestic equity markets. Investors got support after the government extended export benefits under the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) scheme for one more year till June 2024. The Scheme for RoDTEP provides for refund of taxes, duties and levies that are incurred by exporters in the process of manufacturing and distribution of goods and are not being reimbursed under any other mechanism at the centre, state or local level. On the global front, sterling fell against a strengthening dollar on Wednesday as markets are pricing in that the Bank of England (BoE) is done hiking interest rates as the economy deteriorated, while British inflation subsided. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.22 (Provisional), stronger by 6 paise from its previous close of 83.28 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net buyers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9406.42 crore against gross selling of Rs 9268.60 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1004.94 crore with gross sales of Rs 556.13 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 18.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.21 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly in green on Wednesday as investors readied for the final trading days of what's shaping up to be a weak month and quarter. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday following lackluster trade on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets in yet another volatile session ended on a positive note on Wednesday led by PSU Bank, Capital Goods and Healthcare stocks. Today, markets are likely to make flat-to-negative start amid lack of directional cues from overseas peers. Trading likely to be volatile in day's session amid the fresh spike in Brent Crude to above $95 per barrel, spurt in 10-year US bond yield and the monthly futures & options expiry later in the day. Persistent foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 354.35 crore on September 27. There will be some cautiousness with a private report that investment in Indian startups dropped to a five-year low in the third quarter of calendar year 2023, with funding declining by 54 per cent year-on-year to $1.5 billion. The funding also fell 29 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Investors may also react to reports that market regulator SEBI is considering the possibility of extending trading hours for the cash market to align with global markets and accommodate market-moving news. Traders may take note of report that NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani has made a case for simplification of the whole system of business taxation as has been done in case of personal tax, saying faceless assessment may not work in all the cases. Meanwhile, markets regulator Sebi has extended the deadline for mutual fund account holders till January 1, to nominate a beneficiary or opt out of it by submitting a declaration form, failing which their folios will be frozen. Telecom stocks will be in focus as Trai data showed that Reliance Jio, a unit of Reliance Industries, gained 39.1 lakh users in July; Bharti Airtel added 15.2 lakh new users, while Vodafone Idea lost 13.2 lakh users. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks with a private report that India's vegetable oil imports are likely to drop 6% in the new marketing year beginning November, due to higher carryover stocks of oilseeds from the current year.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

19,716.45

19,603.40

19,780.10

BSE Sensex

66,118.69

65,721.67

66,343.98

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

332.77

128.40

127.15

129.20

HDFC Bank

196.69

1527.45

1517.46

1534.96

ICICI Bank

151.52

942.00

935.44

947.54

Coal India

128.05

291.95

286.50

295.40

ITC

104.90

449.35

442.16

453.16

 

  • Cipla has introduced drone-powered deliveries of critical medicines for hospitals and pharmacies in Himachal Pradesh in partnership with Sky Air Mobility. 
  • Apollo Hospitals Enterprise's subsidiary -- Apollo Multispeciality Hospitals has acquired a partially built hospital in Sonarpur, Kolkata with a total capacity of 325 beds as an asset sale. 
  • Infosys has launched ICAC a first-of-its-kind industry cloud offering designed for commercial airlines to help them accelerate their digital transformation journey.
  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries' wholly owned subsidiary -- Sun Pharma Canada has launched WINLEVI (clascoterone cream 1% w/w), a Novel Topical Treatment for Acne in Canada.
News Analysis