In a session marked by high volatility, Indian equity benchmarks managed to eke out gains to end at record closing highs on Monday led by gains in Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Auto amid a largely positive trend in global markets. The benchmarks staged a gap up opening, as sentiments got a boost as Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the Indian economy is on a sustained path of revival and cited rise in GST collections and direct taxes to support her assertion. Traders also took encouragement as the Finance Ministry said net direct tax collection grew 74.4 per cent to Rs 5.70 lakh crore between April 1 to September 22 this fiscal. Traders found some support with Union Minister Piyush Goyal's statement that India's export performance in the first six months of 2021-22 shows that outbound shipments will exceed the target of $400 billion in the ongoing fiscal year. Adding to the optimism, Minister of State for Finance Bhagwat K Karad said the government plans to increase public sector undertakings' (PSUs) income and create employment through the disinvestment process. However, the indices gave up gains in the first hour of opening to trade in a range bound manner, as traders got anxious with RBI data showed the country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $1.47 billion to $639.642 billion in the week ended September 17. Traders also remain concerned with report stating that as many as 470 infrastructure projects, each worth Rs 150 crore or more, have been hit by cost overruns totalling more than Rs 4.37 lakh crore.  However, some buying activity witnessed in afternoon deals, taking support from private report stated that Ratings agency Icra revised up its 2021-22 real GDP growth estimate for India to 9 percent from the earlier 8.5 percent. A ramp-up in COVID-19 vaccination, healthy advance estimates of kharif (summer) crop and faster government spending were the factors which led to the revision. It expects the second half of the fiscal year to have brighter prospects. Besides, Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) said the net personal income and corporate taxes collection grew 74 per cent to Rs 5.70 lakh crore so far this fiscal, driven mainly by advance tax and TDS payments. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 29.41 points or 0.05% to 60,077.88 and the CNX Nifty was up by 1.90 points or 0.01% to 17,855.10.

The US markets ended mostly lower on Monday with investors largely making cautious moves as they looked ahead to speeches from several Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, and continued to keep an eye on the developments surrounding debt-laden China Evergrande. Traders ignored report that new orders for US manufactured durable goods increased by much more than expected in the month of August, according to a report released the Commerce Department. The report said durable goods orders jumped by 1.8 percent in August after rising by a revised 0.5 percent in July. Street had expected durable goods orders to increase by 0.6 percent compared to the 0.1 percent dip that had been reported for the previous month. The bigger than expected increase in durable goods orders was largely due to a spike in orders for transportation equipment, which shot up by 5.5 percent in August after dipping by 0.4 percent in July. Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts led the way higher, soaring by 77.9 percent in August after plunging by 36.3 percent in July. Excluding the rebound in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged up by 0.2 percent in August after climbing by 0.8 percent in July. Notable increases in orders for fabricated metal products, computers and electronic products and electrical equipment, appliances and components were partly offset by a drop in orders for machinery.

Crude oil futures ended higher on Monday, extending gains to a fifth session, amid tighter supplies and signs of rising demand for oil in several countries across the world. Recent data showed US oil inventories have dropped by 16% year-on-year, and are nearly 23% lower than the level seen in June 2020. On the supply front, OPEC and its allies are looking to increase their output gradually. The group is reportedly finding it difficult to raise output as under-investment or maintenance delays persist from the pandemic. Benchmark Crude oil futures October delivery rose $1.47 or 2 percent to settle at $75.45 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery gained $1.44 or 1.8 percent to settle at $79.53 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.     

Indian rupee ended weaker against dollar on Monday, on emergence of demand for the greenback from importers. Sentiments were negative, as RBI data showed the country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $1.47 billion to $639.642 billion in the week ended September 17. In the previous week ended September 10, 2021, the reserves had dipped by $1.34 billion to $641.113 billion. The reserves had surged by $8.895 billion to a lifetime high of $642.453 billion in the week ended September 3, 2021. Meanwhile, India and the US looking forward to reconvening trade policy forum this year. The US also looking forward to holding the next meeting of the US-India Commercial Dialogue and CEO Forum to enhance business and commercial ties between the two countries. On the global front, dollar rallied and the safe-haven yen dipped to a nearly three-month low on Monday, as fears of widespread market contagion from indebted China Evergrande Group receded. Finally, the rupee ended 73.83, weaker by 15 paise from its previous close of 73.68 on Friday.

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net buyer in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11619.11 crore against gross selling of Rs 11048.66 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1562.76 crore with gross sales of Rs 530.05 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 16.67 crore against gross selling of Rs 58.36 crore.

The US markets ended mostly lower on Monday as losses for several Big Tech companies checked gains elsewhere in the market. Asian markets are trading mixed on Tuesday as investors remained cautious on uncertainty around China's financially-troubled property developer Evergrande. Indian markets closed flat Monday but managed to scale record highs, amid volatility as IT stocks dragged while autos, banks, and Reliance Industries lend support to the indices. Today, markets likely to open flat with a positive bias amid mixed global cues. Traders will get encouragement as ratings agency Icra revised up its 2021-22 real GDP growth estimate for India to 9 per cent from the earlier 8.5 per cent. It said a ramp-up in COVID-19 vaccination, healthy advance estimates of kharif (summer) crop and faster government spending were the factors which led to the revision. Some support will come as Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal said export figures have hit $185 billion as of September 21. These figures are very encouraging and I compliment the exporters community for this. The minister also said that the current foreign trade policy (FTP) is slated to be extended by another six months--31 March, 2022. Besides, India recorded a spike of less than 20,000 new Covid-19 cases in the past 24 hours. The country also witnessed 137 deaths, taking the death toll to 447,362. So far, India has recorded 33,694,940 corona cases in total. Traders may take note of report that the finance ministry said the government will borrow Rs 5.03 trillion in the second half of the current fiscal to fund the revenue gap for reviving the pandemic-hit economy. During the first half, the government has raised Rs 7.02 trillion by issuing bonds, the ministry said in a statement. Meanwhile, the Union health ministry said the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country crossed 86 crore. It said more than 88 lakh (88,98,560) vaccine doses have been administered till 7 pm. There will be some reaction in coal  industry stocks with a private report that India's massive fleet of coal plants are running dangerously low on stockpiles, which may force the nation to buy expensive shipments of the fuel or else risk blackouts. It said stockpiles have fallen to the lowest since November 2017.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

Nifty Top volumes

• HDFC Bank is planning to double its rural reach to two lakh villages, which will see it hire 2,500 people in the next six months. 
• Reliance Infrastructure's board has approved raising up to Rs 750 crore by issuing up to $100,000,000 unsecured foreign currency convertible bonds maturing in 2031 with a coupon rate of 4.5 per cent on private placement basis. 
• Coal India has supplied 8.61 million tonnes Fuel to the power sector in August i.e. rose by 11%. 
• SBI has signed a Service Level agreement with Paisalo Digital for engagement as National Corporate Business Correspondent of the Bank for promoting financial inclusion by providing banking services through kiosks.