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NSE Intra-day chart (27 April 2021)
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Market Commentary 28 April 2021
Markets to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues

 

Extending previous session's bullish run, Indian equity benchmarks ended the Tuesday's trade near intraday highs with frontline gauges settling above their crucial 48,900 (Sensex) and 14,650 (Nifty) levels. Markets started the session on positive note as slightly fall in daily coronavirus cases kept traders optimistic throughout the day. India reported a slight dip in the number of fresh Covid infections and fatalities on Tuesday with 319,435 cases and 2,764 deaths, Worldometer showed. Traders also took some support with report that the commerce ministry said it has started a COVID-19 helpdesk to help resolve issues of exporters and importers pertaining to international trade such as customs clearance delays and banking matters. Traders overlooked report that global forecasting firm Oxford Economics revised downwards its India GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 10.2 percent from 11.8 percent previously, citing the country's escalating health burden, faltering vaccination rate and lack of a convincing government strategy to contain the pandemic. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its April 2021monthly Bulletin has said that as India battles the ferocious rise of new infections, a strong policy response is building. Economic activity in India is holding up against COVID -19's renewed onslaught. Apart from contact-intensive sectors, activity indicators largely remained resilient in March and grew beyond pre-pandemic levels. Traders continue to buy fundamentally strong stocks throughout the day and markets breached crucial psychological levels one after other. Traders took some support with report that bank credit grew by 5.33 per cent to Rs 108.89 lakh crore, and deposits rose 10.94 per cent to Rs 152.15 lakh crore in the fortnight ended April 9, 2021. In the fortnight ended April 10, 2020, bank advances stood at Rs 103.38 lakh crore and deposits were Rs 137.15 lakh crore. Additional support also came as Biden administration seems to have adopted a mission mode approach and removed all bureaucratic hurdles to help India in its fight against deadly COVID-19 pandemic that has spread like wildfire across the country. Traders took note of report that the commerce ministry said it has started a COVID-19 helpdesk to help resolve issues of exporters and importers pertaining to international trade such as customs clearance delays and banking matters. Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 557.63 points or 1.15% to 48,944.14, while the CNX Nifty was up by 168.05 points or 1.16% to 14,653.05.   

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday as many traders stuck to the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision. The Fed is widely expected to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy, but traders will be paying close attention to any changes to the accompanying statement that may signal a shift in the near future. A mixed reaction to the latest earnings news also contributed to the lackluster performance, with several big-name companies also reporting their quarterly results after the close of trading. Shares of Tesla moved sharply lower even though the electric car maker reported better than expected first quarter results. Conglomerates General Electric and 3M also moved to the downside despite reporting first quarter earnings that beat expectations. On the economic data front, reflecting a significant improvement in consumers' assessment of current conditions, the Conference Board released a report showing US consumer confidence reached its highest level since February of 2020 in the month of April. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index jumped to 121.7 in April after spiking to a revised 109.0 in March. Street had expected the consumer confidence index to rise to 112.0 from the 109.7 originally reported for the previous month. The much bigger than expected increase by the headline index came as the present situation index soared to 139.6 in April from 110.1 in March. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are good rose to 23.3 percent from 18.3 percent, while the percentage claiming conditions are 'bad' fell to 24.8 percent from 30.1 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Tuesday as the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to gradually increase oil output helped offset concerns about energy demand. OPEC and its allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, decided to stick to their plan of gradually raising oil production beginning in May. The cartel advanced their meeting, which had been originally scheduled to take place on Wednesday. However, the rapid spread of the coronavirus in India and Latin America was a concern. India, the world's third-largest crude importer, has recorded a daily rise of more than 300,000 cases for several days. It has also reported a total of almost 200,000 deaths. Crude oil futures for June rose $1.03 or 1.7 percent to settle at $62.94 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. June Brent crude gained $0.77 or 1.17 percent to settle at $66.42 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended significantly higher against dollar on Tuesday, on persistent selling of the American currency by exporters. This was the second consecutive session when the rupee was traded higher against dollar. Sentiments were upbeat as bank credit grew by 5.33 per cent to Rs 108.89 lakh crore, and deposits rose 10.94 per cent to Rs 152.15 lakh crore in the fortnight ended April 9, 2021. In the fortnight ended April 10, 2020, bank advances stood at Rs 103.38 lakh crore and deposits were Rs 137.15 lakh crore. Besides, healthy gains in the domestic equity markets also added to the rupee. On the global front; sterling slipped against the dollar on Tuesday, but remained within the previous session's ranges and stabilised against the euro, still struggling to regain the momentum it had in the first quarter of 2021. Finally, the rupee ended 74.66, stronger by 7 paise from its previous close of 74.73 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net seller in equity segment, while net buyer in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7794.54 crore against gross selling of Rs 8849.92 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 994.59 crore against gross selling of Rs 866.06 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 466.12 crore against gross selling of Rs 41.30 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Tuesday as investors focused on wave of earnings reports from Microsoft, Alphabet and other corporate heavyweights. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday as already high valuations discouraged investors from buying equities ahead of a closely-watched U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. Indian markets ended higher Tuesday led by strong gains in metals, banks and auto stocks. Today, the markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues. Some support will come with report that as the registration for the next phase of Covid-19 vaccinations for all above 18 years of age opens, the health ministry shared data to counter claims that vaccines in several states, including Maharashtra, were out of stock. The data showed that 150 million doses had been given to the states so far, of which 10 million were still available with them. Traders may take note of the commerce ministry's statement that the country's exports of organic food products rose by 51 percent year-on-year to $1 billion (Rs 7,078 crore) in 2020-21. However, traders will be concerned as a day after reported a slight dip in the number of fresh Covid infections and fatalities, India on Wednesday recorded a massive surge of 362,902 cases and 3,285 deaths, Worldometer showed. There will be some cautiousness as Brickwork Ratings revised downwards the country's FY22 GDP growth projection to 9 percent from an earlier estimate of 11 percent. Brickwork Ratings in a report said the deadly second wave of COVID-19 has brought an abrupt halt to the country's nascent economic recovery from the pandemic. Also, a private report stating that business activity has fallen by a fourth of the pre-COVID levels due to lockdowns imposed by states to contain the spread of the second wave of COVID-19. Meanwhile, Markets regulator Sebi came out with new framework to strengthen policies on provisional rating by credit rating agencies (CRAs) for debt instruments. Under the framework, all provisional ratings (long term or short term) for debt instruments need to be prefixed as provisional before the rating symbol in all communications-- rating letter, press release and rating rationale. MSMEs industry stocks will be in limelight amid report that stung by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, small businesses have urged Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to review classification norms for bad loans and rationalise import duty on key raw materials such as iron and steel. There will be some reaction in telecom stocks as domestic credit rating agency Crisil's research wing pointed out that there is a close contest between the top two telcos, when one goes by active subscriber base with Jio's share at 33.7 per cent and Airtel's at 33.6 per cent. Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) will be in focus as they are seeking a revival of the debt restructuring scheme amid the resurgence of Covid-19 and with states imposing lockdowns. There will be some important earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

14,653.05

14,536.09

14,718.79

BSE Sensex

48,944.14

48,559.36

49,169.09

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Axis Bank

465.59

699.55

687.80

707.60

State Bank of India

460.03

353.05

345.31

357.86

Hindalco Industries

412.63

366.25

354.24

374.14

Tata Motors

350.40

301.50

296.90

304.30

Tata Steel

249.04

977.75

953.70

992.40

 

  • Tech Mahindra through its wholly owned subsidiary -- Tech Mahindra (Americas) Inc. has approved the proposal to acquire 100% equity shares in Eventus. 
  • Tata Motors has set in motion a business plan to protect and serve the interests of its customers, dealers and suppliers as the lockdowns enforced in various parts of the country are expected to impact vehicle demand temporarily. 
  • HDFC Life Insurance has recorded 17 per cent growth in terms of individual weighted received premium during FY21 on a base of 19 per cent growth in FY20. 
  • SBI is planning to raise long term fund in single / multiple tranches up to $2 Billion under Reg-S/144A, through a public offer and / or private placement of senior unsecured notes in US Dollar or any other convertible currency during FY22.
News Analysis