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NSE Intra-day chart (25 April 2023)
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Market Commentary 26 April 2023
Benchmarks to make negative start on weak global cues

 

Indian equity benchmarks erased most of their initial gains but managed to end in green for the second straight session on Tuesday, helped by buying in power and utility stocks amid positive quarterly numbers announced by heavyweight companies.  The domestic indices made a cautious start as foreign fund outflows and a muted trend in global equities dented sentiments. According to provisional data from National Stock Exchange, foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 412.27 crore on April 24. However, markets soon gained some traction as the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said that after weakening for three consecutive quarters, business sentiment turned buoyant in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the fiscal year ended March 31 (FY23). The Business Confidence Index (BCI) stood at 149.7 in Q4, up from 126.6 in Q3 FY23. Markets extended their gains in late afternoon session, as traders took support with Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Chairman Bibek Debroy's statement that some states in India are already in the high-income category in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, and the country is likely to move to the upper-middle-income country by 2047. Debroy further said any presumption that the Indian economic growth rate will be driven only by exports may be misleading because there are plenty of endogenous sources of growth. But, markets cut some gains in final minutes of trade as traders got anxious with a private report stating that the credit growth momentum is waning in the country and the crucial non-food loans growth is expected to slip to 10 per cent in FY24 from more than 15 per cent in FY23. Traders also got cautious after a senior United Nations (UN) official said that India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country by the end of this month when its population is expected to reach 1.425 billion. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 74.61 points or 0.12% to 60,130.71 and the CNX Nifty was up by 25.85 points or 0.15% to 17,769.25.

 

The US markets ended deeply in red on Tuesday as investors' bank fears returned. The sell-off on markets partly reflected a negative reaction to quarterly results from First Republic (FRC), with the regional bank plunging by 49.4 percent. The steep drop by First Republic came after the company reported a loss of more than $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter, renewing concerns about turmoil in the banking sector. Shares of UPS Inc. (UPS) also moved sharply lower after the delivery giant reported weaker than expected first quarter results and forecast full-year revenue at the lower end of its prior forecast. Traders also continued to look ahead to quarterly results from Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and software giant Microsoft (MSFT) after the close of trading. On the economic data front, the Conference Board released a report showing consumer confidence has deteriorated by much more than anticipated in the month of April. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slumped to 101.3 in April from a revised 104.0 in March. Street had expected the index to edge down to 104.0 from the 104.2 originally reported for the previous month. A separate report released by the Commerce Department showed new home sales unexpectedly spiked to their highest level in a year in March. On the sectoral front, oil service stocks pulled back sharply after rallying during Monday's session, dragging the Philadelphia Oil Service Index down by 3.8 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Tuesday on rising dollar and concerns over the outlook for energy demand due to global economic slowdown. A report released by the Conference Board showed consumer confidence has deteriorated by much more than anticipated in the month of April.  The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slumped to 101.3 in April from a revised 104.0 in March. Street had expected the index to edge down to 104.0 from the 104.2 originally reported for the previous month. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery fell $1.69 or 2.2 percent to settle at $77.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery dropped $1.96 or 2.4 percent to settle at $80.77 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange. 

 

Indian rupee ended flat against dollar on Tuesday amid rising crude oil prices and foreign fund outflows. Traders were cautious after a senior United Nations (UN) official said that India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country by the end of this month when its population is expected to reach 1.425 billion. A senior UN official also said that India's population is projected to stabilise after the year 2064 and will be around 1.5 billion at the end of the century. Meanwhile, provisional data from National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 412.27 crore on April 24. On the global front, the pound fell on Tuesday, in line with a decline in a number of European currencies, as nervousness around the outcome of the earnings season and the outlook for the global economy gave the dollar an edge. Finally, the rupee ended flat compared with its previous close of 81.92 on Monday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6201.09 crore against gross selling of Rs 6537.12 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 667.15 crore against gross selling of Rs 1666.95 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 16.49 crore against gross selling of Rs 19.04 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday after regional bank - First Republic Bank's earnings report triggered fears about the broader sector. Asian markets are trading mixed on Wednesday following overnight losses on Wall Street. Indian markets ended on a positive note in a volatile session on Tuesday, supported by power, PSU bank and oil and gas names. Today, markets are likely to get negative start tracking weakness in global peers. Investors are highly nervous as they await the release of US GDP and PCE inflation data, which will guide the upcoming Fed action. There will be some cautiousness as the finance ministry in its Monthly Economic Review for March said that India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24). The review said we reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks. Traders will be concerned amid foreign fund outflows. according to provisional data from National Stock Exchange, foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 407.35 crore on April 25. Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has put a stop to the practice of brokers creating bank guarantees using client funds. It said that such practices will be barred from May 1 and all existing bank guarantees have to be terminated by September 30. Banking stocks will be in focus as the Finance Ministry in its monthly economic review said that India's banking system is strong enough to survive stress caused by interest rates increasing and it will continue aiding economic growth. There will be some reaction in tea industry stocks as leading planters' body, Indian Tea Association (ITA), is making a fresh pitch for a floor price for tea in the wake of an adverse impact of unfavourable weather conditions on the crop and stagnating auction prices. The earnings momentum is likely to continue with Maruti Suzuki, SBI Life, Bajaj Finance and among other companies to release their fourth quarter earnings of the previous fiscal later in the day.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,769.25

17,721.59

17,812.19

BSE Sensex

60,130.71

59,975.59

60,277.24

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ICICI Bank

413.84

913.20

905.54

918.44

State Bank of India

381.42

561.35

554.94

567.84

Axis Bank

363.94

876.80

868.86

890.26

HDFC Bank

251.77

1663.60

1654.44

1680.24

Tata Steel

233.33

106.95

106.26

107.61

 

  • Tata Steel has commenced the trial injection of hydrogen gas using 40% of the injection systems in E Blast Furnace at its Jamshedpur Works. 
  • Infosys has collaborated with ServiceNow to launch the Infosys Live Operations platform, aimed at enhancing customer experiences for telecom providers. 
  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured EPC orders in India and overseas for its Power Transmission & Distribution Business. 
  • Sun Pharmaceutical Industries has launched a novel ophthalmology treatment, CEQUA, in India for patients who have Dry Eye Disease with inflammation, a commonly occurring condition.
News Analysis