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Market Commentary 25 June 2021
Markets to get flat-to-positive start amid firm global cues


Indian benchmark indices ended the final session of the June series of futures & options (F&O) over half a percent higher, with major contribution from IT, TECK and Banking stocks amid a positive trend in global markets. Key indices made optimistic start, as traders got some support with the commerce and industry ministry in its latest data has showed that foreign direct investment (FDI) equity inflows into India increased by 60 percent to $4.44 billion in April 2021 as against $2.77 billion in the same month last year. Besides, the country has attracted total FDI inflow, including equity, re-invested earnings and capital, of $6.24 billion during April, 2021, which is 38 percent higher as compared to inflow of $4.53 billion in April 2020. Sentiments remained positive after the government has notified the accounting standards for small and medium companies that revise the turnover and borrowing limits as well as help in making disclosure requirements less onerous. Besides, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government will actively pursue cases against economic offenders to bring back defrauded money of banks. Traders overlooked S&P Global Ratings' report in which it slashed India's Gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 9.5 percent for the current fiscal (FY21), from 11 percent earlier, and warned of risk to the outlook from further waves of COVID pandemic. It lowered the growth outlook saying that a severe second COVID-19 outbreak in April and May led to lockdowns imposed by states and sharp contraction in economic activity. Stating that permanent damage to private and public sector balance sheets will constrain growth over the next couple of years, it projected India's growth at 7.8 percent in the next fiscal ending March 31, 2023. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 392.92 points or 0.75% to 52,699.00, while the CNX Nifty was up by 103.50 points or 0.66% to 15,790.45.


The US markets ended higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reaching new record closing highs, after President Joe Biden declared that the White House struck an infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of senators. The strength on markets came as traders looked to get back into action after taking a breather on Wednesday, when the major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line. Positive sentiment may also have been generated in reaction to a Labor Department report showing a modest decrease in first-time claims for US unemployment benefits in the week ended June 19th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims edged down to 411,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level of 418,000. Street had expected jobless claims to drop to 380,000 from the 412,000 originally reported for the previous week. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US manufactured durable goods rebounded in the month of May. The report said durable goods orders surged up by 2.3 percent in May after falling by a revised 0.8 percent in April. Street had expected durable goods orders to spike by 2.7 percent compared to the 1.3 percent slump that had been reported for the previous month. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.3 percent in May after jumping by 1.7 percent in April. Ex-transportation orders were expected to increase by 0.7 percent.


Crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday, extending their previous session's gains, holding close to their highest in almost three years, supported by drawdowns in US inventories and accelerating German economic activity. Doubts about the future of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that could end US sanctions on Iranian crude exports also helped prices. However, with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies set to discuss rising crude production beyond July, the uptick in oil prices was just modest on Thursday. Crude oil futures for August rose $0.22 or 0.3 percent to settle at $73.30 barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August Brent crude gained $0.25 or 0.35 percent to settle at $75.45 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.


Rising for the second consecutive day, Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Thursday. Sentiments remained positive with commerce and industry ministry's latest data showing that foreign direct investment (FDI) equity inflows into India increased by 60 percent to $4.44 billion in April 2021 as against $2.77 billion in the same month last year. However, gains remain capped as S&P Global Ratings cut India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent, from 11 per cent earlier, and warned of risk to the outlook from further waves of COVID pandemic. On the global front, dollar slipped slightly on Thursday, having spent the week gradually edging away from two-month highs hit after the U.S. Federal Reserve's surprise hawkish shift at its meeting last week. Finally, the rupee ended 74.18, stronger by 9 paise from its previous close of 74.27 on Wednesday.


The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net seller in equity segment, while net buyer in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10240.19 crore against gross selling of Rs 10487.96 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 399.06 crore with gross sales of Rs 200.94 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7.00 crore against gross selling of Rs 8.37 crore.


The US markets ended higher on Thursday as traders were encouraged to see a bipartisan deal on infrastructure spending as well as some positive reports on the economy. Asian markets are trading in green on Friday tracking gains on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets rose on Thursday led by gains in banking and IT stocks, however, losses in energy stocks and heavyweight RIL kept the indices from hitting record highs. Today, markets are likely to begin first trading session of the July derivative series on a flat-to-positive note amid favourable global cues. Some support will come as Chief Economic Adviser K.V. Subramanian said food inflation is likely to moderate on account of the twin impact of opening up of economic activities and good monsoon and attributed the rise in food prices to restrictions imposed by several states during April-May to deal with the second wave of Covid-19.  Traders may take note of report that with domestic retail fuel prices jumping to record high on rising international oil rates, India has pressed oil cartel OPEC for affordable oil price within a reasonable band and that the producers should phase out production cuts. Besides, industry body Nasscom said India's share in the global engineering and research and development (ER&D) market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12-13 per cent to reach $63 billion by 2025. However, there may be some cautiousness as India reported on Thursday 54,069 new Covid-19 infections over the past 24 hours, data from the health ministry showed. It had 1,321 new fatalities, taking the total death toll to 39,1981. Meanwhile, capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is planning to come out with a framework on special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), which will enable listing of startups on domestic stock exchanges. NBFCs stocks will be in focus as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tied down a non-banking financial company's ability to pay dividend to certain factors, including how much bad debt it has in its book and whether it has declared it correctly. There will be some reaction in telecom stocks as Moody's Investors Service in a report said countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including India, that are late in adopting 5G technology will get insignificant revenue from the services.


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  • TCS has launched Quartz to help MIIs offer end-to-end next generation services around tokenized securities, and drive their future growth. 
  • Tata Motors in association with Kotak Mahindra Prime has unveiled three exciting financing solutions: the Red Carpet, the Prime Vishwas and the Low EMI schemes for urban and rural customer groups. 
  • Eicher Motors' motorcycle arm -- Royal Enfield has earmarked Rs 20 crore to support relief and rehabilitation efforts amid the coronavirus pandemic. 
  • Reliance Industries is planning to invest Rs 75,000 crore in setting up four Giga factories to make solar photovoltaic cells, green hydrogen, batteries and fuel cells over the next three years.
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