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NSE Intra-day chart (24 April 2023)
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Market Commentary 25 April 2023
Benchmarks likely to get positive start on Tuesday

 

Indian equity benchmarks ended near day's high with gains of over half percent on Monday after strong Q4 performance by index heavyweights like Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank. Markets made a positive start, as traders took encouragement with a private report that starting FY24 on a positive note, Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been buyers throughout the trading sessions in April month so far. On a reasonable valuation of stocks, they invested Rs 8,643 crore in Indian equities. Besides, according to the RBI data, India's forex reserves rose by $1.657 billion to $586.412 billion as of April 14, marking their second consecutive week of increase. However, domestic indices soon trimmed most of their opening gains tracking weakness in Asian counterparts, as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of several key economic reports and corporate earnings numbers later in the week from the U.S. Key gauges gained traction in second half of trading session, taking support from Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal's statement where he expressed hope that traders will soon be able to settle foreign trade in the rupee currency as several banks from different countries are opening special Vostro accounts with Indian banks. He said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has approved 60 requests to open Special Rupee Vostro Accounts (SRVAs) of correspondent banks from 18 countries, including the UK, Singapore, and New Zealand. Some support also came as the government is expected to announce a national retail trade policy and an accident insurance scheme soon with a view to supporting GST-registered domestic traders. The proposed policy would help provide better infrastructure and more credit to the traders. Meanwhile, India has climbed six places on the World Bank's Logistic Performance Index (LPI) 2023, now ranking 38th in the 139 countries index, as a result of significant investments in both soft and hard infrastructure as well as technology. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 401.04 points or 0.67% to 60,056.10 and the CNX Nifty was up by 119.35 points or 0.68% to 17,743.40.

 

The US markets ended higher on Monday. However, markets showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading session. The choppy trading on markets came as traders remained reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the release of earnings news from several big name companies in the coming days. A lack of major U.S. economic data also kept some traders on the sidelines ahead of the release of several key reports. Reports on consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods orders, first quarter GDP and personal income and spending are likely to attract attention in the coming days. The personal income and spending report includes a reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve and could impact the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Fed meeting next week. Tech giants Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are among a slew of well-known companies due to report their quarterly results this week. On the sectoral front, oil service stocks moved sharply higher, driving the Philadelphia Oil Service Index up by 2.4 percent. The rally by oil service stocks came amid a notable increase by the price of crude oil, with crude for June delivery climbing $0.89 to $78.76 a barrel. On the other hand, software and computer hardware stocks came under pressure, weighing on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Reflecting the weakness in the sectors, the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index and the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index both fell by 1.1 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher on Monday as investors grew optimistic that holiday travel in China would boost fuel demand in the world's largest oil importer. According to reports, booking in China for trips abroad during the upcoming May Day holiday indicate a recovery in travel to Asian countries. Further, reports that OPEC and its allies are planning additional supply cuts contributed to the rise in oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery rose $0.89 or 1.1 percent to settle at $78.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery surged $1.07 or 1.31 percent to settle at $82.73 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange. 

 

Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Monday, as a firm trend in domestic equities and easing crude oil price boosted investors' sentiment. Traders got encouragement as India's forex reserves rose by $1.657 billion to $586.412 billion as of April 14, marking their second consecutive week of increase. Meanwhile, Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have infused Rs 8,643 crore in the Indian equity markets so far in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks. FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. On the global front, the british pound was little changed against the dollar on Monday, trading in close proximity to a 10-month high hit earlier this month as markets expect the Bank of England to continue tightening policy to bring down inflation. Finally, the rupee ended at 81.91 (Provisional), stronger by 15 paise from its previous close of 82.06 on Friday.

 

The FIIs as per Monday's data were net sellers in equity segment and net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5212.42 crore against gross selling of Rs 6906.18 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 449.19 crore against gross selling of Rs 296.43 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 0.48 crore against gross selling of Rs 1.57 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly in green on Monday as investors braced for mega tech earnings, economic data and central bank meetings in the coming days. Asian markets are trading mostly lower on Tuesday following mixed close on Wall Street overnight. Indian markets ended notably higher on Monday as encouraging earnings results from heavyweights offset mixed global cues. Today, equity indices are likely to extend previous session's rally with positive start as sentiment around the March quarter performance of India Inc begins to improve, with Q4 earnings of IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, and ICICI Bank, coming in-line with estimates. Besides, investors will be eyeing lots of earnings announcement later in the day for more cues. Traders will be getting encouragement as the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said that after weakening for three consecutive quarters, business sentiment turned buoyant in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the fiscal year ended March 31 (FY23). The Business Confidence Index (BCI) stood at 149.7 in Q4, up from 126.6 in Q3 FY23. Some support will come as Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Chairman Bibek Debroy said that some states in India are already in the high-income category in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, and the country is likely to move to the upper-middle-income country by 2047. Debroy further said any presumption that the Indian economic growth rate will be driven only by exports may be misleading because there are plenty of endogenous sources of growth. However, mixed cues from global peers likely to limit gains in the domestic markets. Also, foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments. According to provisional data from National Stock Exchange, foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 412.27 crore on April 24. Moreover, a private report noted that India's credit growth momentum is waning and the crucial non-food loans growth is likely to slip to 10 per cent in FY24 from more than 15 per cent in FY23. Meanwhile, consultants and service providers in the country have urged the government to stop routing domestic foreign currency deals via the US banking system, in order to avoid transaction fees and save foreign currency. Rather such domestic deals involving foreign currencies such as the US dollar should be routed through the Reserve Bank of India. In the primary market, the initial public offering (IPO) of Mankind Pharma is scheduled to open today, April 25 and will close on April 27. The price band of the issue has been fixed at Rs 1,026 - Rs 1,080.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,743.40

17,652.44

17,794.44

BSE Sensex

60,056.10

59,750.26

60,231.79

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

ICICI Bank

308.82

905.30

898.04

909.54

HDFC Life Insurance Company

234.96

546.15

533.59

557.14

Tata Steel

234.75

106.70

105.80

107.15

State Bank of India

233.36

553.80

546.35

558.40

Axis Bank

182.02

884.25

868.36

892.26

 

  • HDFC Bank has executed definitive agreements to invest an amount of up to Rs 69.90 crore in Go Digit Life Insurance in two tranches. 
  • ICICI Bank has reported rise of 27.64% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 9,852.70 crore for Q4FY23 as compared to Rs 7,718.94 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 
  • Reliance Industries is all set to commence natural gas production from its deepest discovery in the KG-D6 block this quarter (Q1FY24), meeting 15% of India's gas demand. 
  • Infosys has signed a MoU with Aramco to collaborate on accelerating their human resource technology.
News Analysis