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NSE Intra-day chart (22 April 2022)
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Market Commentary 25 April 2022
Benchmarks likely to get gap-down opening amid global sell-off

 

Friday's session turned-out to be a dismal day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks, where frontline gauges ended the day with a cut of over a percent, breaching their crucial 57,200 (Sensex) and 17,200 (Nifty) levels, dragged down by losses in all the sectors after US Fed chief's hawkish comments soured global sentiments. Markets started the session on negative note and stayed in red for whole day, as traders got anxious with report stated that investments in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes (P-notes) dropped to Rs 87,979 crore as of March-end, with experts believing that foreign investors will continue to adopt a cautious stance. Traders remained pessimistic as foreign institutional investors (FII) net sold Indian shares worth Rs 713.7 crore -- a tenth straight day of outflow for the Street. However, key gauges managed to cut some losses in late morning deals, taking support from the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) Mission Chief for India Nada Choueiri's statement that the successful macroeconomic management of the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in a strong recovery of India's economy because of which the country is in a better position to face the economic fallout of the current Ukrainian crisis. But, equity markets failed to hold recovery and widened their losses in late afternoon session, as traders were cautious, as amid concerns over minorities being targeted in India, former Reserve Bank governor Raghuram Rajan cautioned that an 'anti-minority' image for the country can lead to loss of market for Indian products and may also result in foreign governments perceiving the nation as an unreliable partner. Sentiments remained down-beat as private report stated that UBS has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for India for the current financial year from 7.7 to 7.0 percent, adding that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) risks failing to meet its inflation mandate. According to UBS, high global commodity prices, slower global growth, hit to domestic demand from the income shock of high fuel prices and elevated inflation, and the risk of the central government diverting money from capital expenditure towards subsidies will cause the Indian economy to grow at a slower clip this year than previously expected. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 714.53 points or 1.23% to 57,197.15 and the CNX Nifty was down by 220.65 points or 1.27% to 17,171.95.

 

Extending their precious session's losses, the US markets settled significantly lower on Friday amid concerns about the Federal Reserve aggressively tightening monetary policy. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he saw merit in front-end loading policy moves and indicated a 50 basis point rate hike would be on the table at the central bank's next meeting in early May. CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 50 basis point rate hike at the May meeting is a near certainty. Traders may also have been moving out of stocks ahead of the release of a deluge of earnings news from big-name companies next week. Coca-Cola (KO), General Electric (GE), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Boeing (BA), McDonald's (MCD), Twitter (TWTR), Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are just a few of the companies due to report their quarterly results. On the sectroal front, steel stocks turned in some of the market's worst performances on the day, dragging the NYSE Arca Steel Index down by 3.9 percent to its lowest closing level in a month. Substantial weakness was also visible among healthcare stocks, as reflected by the 3.6 percent plunge by the Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Index. The index also tumbled to a one-month closing low. Hospital operator HCA Healthcare (HCA) helped lead the sector lower, plummeting by 21.8 percent after reporting first quarter earnings that missed analyst estimates.Airline stocks also showed a significant move to the downside on the day, resulting in a 3.5 percent nosedive by the NYSE Arca Airline Index. Brokerage, chemical and computer hardware stocks also moved considerably lower, reflecting broad based selling pressure on Wall Street.

 

Crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Friday as China's COVID outbreak and expectations for aggressive interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve dulled prospects for energy demand. Shanghai has extended the Covid-19 lockdown to April 26 as the eastern metropolis of 26 million reported 11 more deaths on Thursday, taking the toll in the current outbreak to 36. Besides, according to a report from Baker Hughes, the U.S. oil rig count rose one to 549 this week, the highest level since April 2020. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery fell $1.72 or 1.7 percent to settle at $102.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery lost $1.68 or 1.6 percent to settle at $106.65 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended lower on Friday in line with a sell-off in domestic equities and a firm greenback in the overseas markets. Traders got anxious with report stated that investments in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes (P-notes) dropped to Rs 87,979 crore as of March-end, with experts believing that foreign investors will continue to adopt a cautious stance. Sentiments remained down-beat as private report stated that UBS has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for India for the current financial year from 7.7 to 7.0 percent, adding that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) risks failing to meet its inflation mandate. On the global front, euro edged lower on Friday after European Central Bank officials made mixed comments, while expectations of a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike from the Federal Reserve supported the U.S. dollar. Finally, the rupee ended at 76.42 (Provisional), weaker by 25 paise from its previous close of 76.17 on Thursday.

 

The FIIs as per Friday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9263.01 crore against gross selling of Rs 9865.07 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 530.70 crore against gross sales of Rs 1133.69 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 22.23 crore against gross selling of Rs 31.28 crore.

 

The US markets ended deeply in red on Friday as surprise earnings news and increased certainty around aggressive near-term rate increases took a toll on investors. Asian markets are trading lower on Monday as concerns persist about aggressive rate hikes after the Fed's hawkish commentary last week. Indian markets ended sharply lower on Friday, snapping a two-day rally after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell toughened his stance on inflation and Shanghai extended the Covid-19 lockdown to April 26. Today, the markets are likely to get gap-down opening of new week amid weak global sentiment and concerns around steeper rate hikes by the US Fed. Traders will be concerned as India's crude oil import bill nearly doubled to $119 billion in the fiscal year that ended on March 31, as energy prices soared globally following the return of demand and war in Ukraine. According to data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), India, the world's third biggest oil consuming and importing nation, spent $119.2 billion in 2021-22 (April 2021 to March 2022), up from $62.2 billion in the previous fiscal year. There will be some cautiousness as the Centre for Monitoring of Indian Economy stated that India's labour force fell by 38 lakhs in the month of March to the lowest level in the last eight months, comprising a decline in the count of both employed and unemployed. Labour force participation rate fell to 39.5 percent, lower than 39.9 percent in February and 39.6 percent in June last year. Also, a private report cut India's 2022-23 economic growth forecast by 70 basis points to 7 percent, citing slowing global growth due to high commodity prices, and weak local demand because of energy price hikes, inflationary pressures and a struggling labour market. However, some respite may come later in the day as Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said nation's economy appeared, sound and expressed confidence that quickening inflation will be controlled. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank said it has launched the next round of the quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS) to assesses business sentiment for the current quarter and expectations for the ensuing three-month period. There will be some buzz in ceramics and glassware products related sector stocks as the commerce ministry said exports of ceramics and glassware products touched a record $3.5 billion in 2021-22. It said the exports rose because of increase in shipments of ceramic tiles and sanitaryware products. There will be some reaction in power stocks with report that the current power crisis is mainly on account of sharp decline in electricity generation from different fuel sources and not due to non-availability of domestic coal. Besides, the Q4 earning will be crucial to watch.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,171.95

17,109.00

17,275.10

BSE Sensex

57,197.15

56,991.30

57,546.44

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Coal India

240.07

202.80

199.70

207.45

Hindalco Industries

238.71

514.05

508.29

524.84

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone

178.64

874.00

847.80

893.10

State Bank of India

167.60

499.50

494.50

509.00

ITC

156.71

261.10

258.76

263.21

 

  • Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone through its subsidiary -- The Adani Harbour Services has entered into a definitive agreement for acquisition of 100% stake in Ocean Sparkle. 
  • ITC's subsidiary company -- ITC Infotech is planning to acquire a portion of Nasdaq-listed PTC's product lifecycle management implementation services business. 
  • HCL Technologies has reported over 3-fold jump in its consolidated net profit at Rs 3,599 crore for Q4FY22 as compared to Rs 1,111 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 
  • Hero MotoCorp and the Automotive Skill Development Council have joined hands for Project Jeevika, to train two-wheeler market technicians across the country on BS-VI Technology.
News Analysis