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NSE Intra-day chart (22 March 2023)
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Market Commentary 23 March 2023
Benchmarks likely to get pessimistic start on weak global cues

 

Indian equity markets witnessed sideways momentum throughout the day and managed to close in green on Wednesday mainly due to buying in Healthcare, Utilities and Auto stocks amid a firm trend in global equities. Markets made a positive start and stayed in green for whole day, as traders were getting some encouragement with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its article stating that unlike the global economy, India would not slow down and maintain the pace of expansion achieved in 2022-23. It said the NSO's end-February data release indicates that the Indian economy is intrinsically better positioned than many parts of the world to head into a challenging year ahead, mainly because of its demonstrated resilience and its reliance on domestic drivers. Traders also took a note of report that India will spend a whopping 1.7 per cent of its GDP on transport infrastructure this year -- around twice the level in America and most European countries. Sentiments remained positive in late afternoon deals amid a private report stating that the government is evaluating measures to bring down the tax burden on foreign investors that put money in alternative investment funds (AIFs), which include venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) domiciled in India. Adding to the optimism, Union minister Nitin Gadkari said that social and economic equality is the ultimate goal of the government and Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam' (world is one family) embodies a powerful message from India's G20 Presidency, signalling the commitment to pursue fair and equitable growth for all in the world. However, gains remained capped as some concern came with exchange data showing that Foreign Portfolio Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 1,454.63 crore on Tuesday. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 139.91 points or 0.24% to 58,214.59 and the CNX Nifty was up by 44.40 points or 0.26% to 17,151.90.

 

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced its decision to continue raising interest rates despite recent turmoil in the banking industry. The Fed said it has decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points to 4.75 to 5.0 percent. While the interest rate hike was widely expected, some traders have been holding out hope the Fed would leave rates unchanged. The Fed also said additional policy firming may be appropriate, although that marks a shift from saying ongoing increases in rates will be appropriate. The central bank's latest projections suggest the Fed plans to raise rates just one more time this year to a range of 5.0 to 5.25 percent. The Fed described the U.S. banking system as sound and resilient despite the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The Fed acknowledged recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation but noted the extent of these effects is uncertain. On the sectoral front, banking stocks fell sharply following the rate hike by the Fed, resulting in a 4.7 percent nosedive by the KBW Bank Index. Substantial weakness also emerged among rate-sensitive commercial real estate stocks, with the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index plunging by 3.6 percent. Oil service stocks also moved sharply lower despite an increase by the price of crude oil, dragging the Philadelphia Oil Service Index down by 3.0 percent.

 

Crude oil futures ended higher, magnifying previous session's gains, as the dollar slid to a six-week low after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered an expected small rate hike. The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. However, data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories rose by 1.117 million barrels in the week ended March 17. But, gasoline inventories dropped by 6.399 million barrels last week, more than three times the drop of 2.061 million barrels seen last week. Benchmark crude oil futures for April delivery rose $1.23 or about 1.8 percent to settle at $70.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for May delivery gained $1.37 or about 1.8 percent to settle at $76.69 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian currency market remained closed on Wednesday on account of Gudi Padwa holiday.

 

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in equity segment, while net buyers in debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4717.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 6623.05 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1015.75 crore against gross selling of Rs 796.24 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 22.55 crore against gross selling of Rs 2.19 crore.

 

The US markets ended lower on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point policy hike, while hinting that it was on the verge of pausing future increases in view of recent turmoil in the financial sector. Asian markets are trading mixed on Thursday tracking lackluster trade on Wall Street on Thursday. Indian benchmarks ended slightly higher on Wednesday led by buying interest in Bajaj Twins and Pharma stocks. Today, the bears are likely to make come back on Dalal Street with negative start taking cues from US markets post the US Fed's announcement of a 25 bps rate hike despite the ongoing crisis in the banking sector. There will be some cautiousness as Fitch Ratings said India has some room to cut capital expenditure in FY24 as there may be pressure on revenue as the buoyancy assumptions in the Union budget may be inflated. It said The government's large ramp up in capex plans in FY24, does give a bit of room for them to manage/cut spending on the capex side, if there are pressures elsewhere in the budget. The revenue buoyancy assumption in the budget may be on the high side when compared to the historical performance, which could lead to pressure on revenues. However, some support may come later in the day as the National Stock Exchange's provisional data showed foreign institutional investors (FII) have turn net buyers for first time in last 10 straight sessions, buying shares worth Rs 61.72 crore on March 22. Meanwhile, industry body PHDCCI has approached the government seeking reintroduction of the Credit Linked Capital Subsidy Scheme to facilitate technology upgradation of micro and small enterprises. Agriculture industry stocks will be in focus as the country's fertilisers minister Mansukh Mandaviya said India will not need to buy fertiliser from the spot markets to meet local demand in the summer sown crop season starting from April. He added there will be no shortages of fertilisers in the kharif season. There will be some reaction in oil & gas industry stocks with report that India's imports of crude oil in February rose about 8% from a year earlier, as fuel demand hit over 2-decade highs in the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer. Select hotel industry stocks will be in limelight as a Crisil Market Intelligence report stated that premium hotels are expected to log in strong growth across operating parameters, especially on the revenue side, which is expected to surge 80 per cent this fiscal and a further 15-20 per cent next, buoyed by the continued recovery across categories.

 

                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,151.90

17,104.09

17,203.49

BSE Sensex

58,214.59

58,045.80

58,401.08

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

258.91

104.95

104.25

105.80

ICICI Bank

174.32

858.15

851.91

863.46

State Bank of India

116.20

521.55

518.76

525.66

Coal India

96.75

214.05

212.46

216.26

Infosys

83.56

1390.70

1379.49

1404.59

 

  • Tata Motors is all set to implement a price increase of up to 5% on its commercial vehicles starting from April 1, 2023. 
  • Larsen & Toubro's construction arm -- L&T construction has secured orders for its Water and Effluent Treatment and Buildings & Factories Businesses. 
  • IOC has received in-principle approval to carry out pre project activities including preparation of Detailed Feasibility Report for setting up Paradip Petrochemical Complex at Paradip, Odisha at an estimated project cost of Rs 61,077 crore.
  • Bharti Airtel has launched its cutting edge 5G services in Kolkata.
News Analysis