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NSE Intra-day chart (21 November 2023)
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Market Commentary 22 November 2023
Benchmarks likely to get cautious start on Wednesday

Indian equity benchmarks snapped their 2-day losing run and ended nearly half a percent higher on Tuesday as Consumer Durables, Realty and Basic Materials stocks witnessed a strong run. Markets started the session on a firm note and consolidated for most part of the day as traders took support with Moody's Investors Service's statement that the RBI's decision to tighten norms for unsecured personal loans is credit positive because lenders will need to allocate higher capital for such loans, thus improving their loss-absorbing buffers. Sentiments remained positive with a private report stating that India Inc's net profit as a percentage of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is just shy of reaching 5 per cent, bolstered by strong earnings growth in the second quarter of 2023-24. Markets added some gains in afternoon deals, as sentiments remained up-beat with the Retirement fund body, Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) in its latest Provisional Estimate of Net Payroll data report showing that India created 1720615 new jobs in the month of September 2023 as against revised figure of 1497410 in August 2023. Traders overlooked data showing that retail inflation for agricultural labourers and rural workers rose marginally to 7.08 per cent and 6.92 per cent in October, respectively, from 6.70 per cent and 6.55 per cent respectively in September 2023 due to higher prices of certain food items. Traders also paid no heed towards a private report stating that India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 275.62 points or 0.42% to 65,930.77 and the CNX Nifty was up by 89.40 points or 0.45% to 19,783.40.

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday as some traders looked to cash in on the recent strength in the markets, which has lifted the major averages to their best levels in over three months. A negative reaction to some of the latest earnings news from major retailers also weighed on markets, with shares of American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) plummeting by 15.8 percent. The steep drop by American Eagle came even though the apparel and accessories retailer reported fiscal third quarter results that exceeded street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Department store operator Kohl's (KSS) also showed a steep drop after reporting fiscal third quarter revenues that fell short of street estimates. The markets did not show much reaction to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting, which said Fed officials expect to keep interest rates at a restrictive level for some time. The minutes of the October 31-November 1 meeting said participants agreed policy should remain restrictive until inflation is clearly moving down sustainably toward the Fed's 2 percent objective. Following the recent series of interest rate hikes, participants also agreed to proceed carefully and take a data-dependent approach to future policy decisions. The Fed also said participants expect data arriving in coming months to help clarify the extent to which the disinflation process was continuing.

Crude oil futures ended marginally lower on Tuesday as traders were awaiting the upcoming meeting of OPEC+, scheduled to take place on Sunday (November 26). The group, which has already pledged total oil output cuts of 5.16 million barrels per day, is widely expected to extend its production cuts. Meanwhile, traders also await weekly crude oil reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Benchmark crude oil futures for January delivery lost $0.06 or about 0.07 percent to settle at $77.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for January delivery added $0.13 or nearly 0.15 percent to settle at $82.45 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

Indian rupee ended higher against dollar on Tuesday tracking the weakness of the American currency in the overseas market and positive domestic equities. Traders took note of Moody's Investors Service's statement that the RBI's decision to tighten norms for unsecured personal loans is credit positive because lenders will need to allocate higher capital for such loans, thus improving their loss-absorbing buffers. Investors overlooked data showing that retail inflation for agricultural labourers and rural workers rose marginally to 7.08 per cent and 6.92 per cent in October, respectively, from 6.70 per cent and 6.55 per cent respectively in September 2023 due to higher prices of certain food items. On the global front, the yen rallied against the dollar on Tuesday as investors positioned for the possibility that the Bank of Japan will tighten monetary policy next year while the Federal Reserve loosens. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.33 (Provisional), higher by 5 paise from its previous close of 83.38 on Monday.

The FIIs as per Tuesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8776.27 crore against gross selling of Rs 9375.00 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 483.20 crore with gross sales of Rs 517.72 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11.56 crore against gross selling of Rs 16.63 crore.

The US markets ended lower on Tuesday as Wall Street assessed Nvidia's latest earnings results. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Wednesday after Chinese police arrested game-streaming company DouYu International Holdings Ltd.'s founder Chen Shaojie on unspecified charges in a tough crackdown on alleged wrongdoing. Indian markets ended higher on Tuesday as global bond yields and the U.S. dollar continued to edge lower on dovish Fed expectations. Today, markets are likely to get cautious start after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's October 31 meeting revealed that policy officials maintained that monetary policy had to be restrictive and had little appetite for rate cuts. Global cues remain muted, while oil prices were subdued ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ meeting. In the Middle East, Israel's government agreed to exchange 50 women and children hostages held by Hamas in Gaza for a four-day pause in fighting. Closer home, ahead of the Q2 GDP data release on November 30, domestic rating agency Icra has pegged the GDP growth at 7 per cent, while British brokerage Barclays see it at 6.8 per cent. ICRA said the Indian economy likely grew at 7 per cent in the second quarter of the ongoing financial year, higher than the Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel's estimation. Traders may take note of report that the Ministry of Finance (FinMin) is expecting to conclude the full financial year as projected with a strong growth performance and macroeconomic stability even as it flagged risks of demand taking a hit on fuller transmission of monetary policy, high inflation, uncertain external financial flows. India has projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent for FY24. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent sentiments. Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange showed that foreign institutional investors net offloaded shares worth Rs 455.59 crore on November 21. Traders may be concerned as the government data showed that foreign direct investment (FDI) equity inflows in India declined 24 per cent to $20.48 billion in April-September 2023, dragged by lower inflows in computer hardware and software, telecom, auto and pharma. FDI inflows stood at $26.91 billion during the first six months of the last fiscal.

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex) 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

19,783.40

19,748.60

19,823.65

BSE Sensex

65,930.77

65,825.84

66,059.03

Nifty Top volumes

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Steel

296.43

126.20

125.30

126.75

Coal India

151.48

334.40

329.34

338.99

State Bank of India

142.80

561.40

559.39

565.04

HDFC Bank

124.80

1518.25

1512.90

1522.80

ONGC

107.20

191.30

190.21

193.16

  • Infosys has collaborated with Proximus, Belgium's leading digital services and communications solutions provider, to deliver an IT modernization and consolidation project.
  • Adani Enterprises' step-down subsidiary -- Mumbai Travel Retail has completed the incorporation process of its wholly owned subsidiary namely - MTRPL Macau in Macau.
  • Bharti Airtel has extended 5G coverage to all 34 districts of Maharashtra.    
  • Bajaj Finance has raised Rs 503.17 crore through the allotment of 50,000 Secured Redeemable NCDs, at the face value of Rs 1 lakh each.

News Analysis