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NSE Intra-day chart (18 November 2021)
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FII Activity(Rs. Cr)
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Market Commentary 22 November 2021
Benchmarks likely to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues

 

Extending losses to a third straight day, Indian equity benchmarks ended over half a percent each lower on Thursday, as weak global cues impacted sentiment. Losses across most sectors, led by metal, auto and capital goods, pulled the headline indices lower. After making cautious start, key gauges fell sharply and continued downside move throughout the day, as traders got anxious with a private report stating that even though the overall outlook for corporates have improved on the back of faster than expected recovery, and the same is likely to gain further traction in H2 but the rising commodity prices and logistics cost pose headwinds to their profitability. Traders took a note of former RBI Deputy Governor N S Vishwanathan's statement that money laundering and lack of clarity on valuations are the primary concerns of central banks in being circumspect about the introduction of cryptocurrencies.  He also said that if the government goes ahead and allows cryptocurrencies, bankers need to be wary and not confuse persons' wealth with the amount of crypto assets they hold even if they do not use it as collateral for lending. Domestic markets however, recovered some of losses in the late afternoon trading, as traders got some support with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's statement that there are clear signs of an uptick in the economy and the industry should now start taking risks and invest in capacity creation that will help cut reliance on imports. She also asked the industry to offer jobs to reduce income disparity and cut down on importing finished goods reduce and instead ramp up investment in manufacturing. But markets failed to trim all losses and ended lower, even as Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) Chairman Bibek Debroy said that India is on a path towards a higher growth trajectory, higher poverty reduction, higher employment, and a prosperous, more developed and better governed India and the country's Gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at around 10 percent in 2021-22. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 372.32 points or 0.62% to 59,636.01 and the CNX Nifty was down by 133.85 points or 0.75% to 17,764.80.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Friday on renewed Covid-19 concerns weighed on cyclical stocks as a brutal fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic sweeps across Europe. Austria has announced a full national Covid-19 lockdown starting on Monday, while Germany has announced more restrictions on unvaccinated people. The potential of more European countries reinstating full lockdowns sparked worries the pandemic could once again weigh down the global economy. However, the tech-heavy Nasdaq benefitted from continued strength among technology stocks following some upbeat earnings news. Shares of Intuit (INTU) surged after the financial software firm reported better than expected fiscal first quarter results and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks (PANW) also moved higher after reporting fiscal first quarter results that exceeded street estimates on both the top and bottom lines. On the sector front, Energy stocks saw substantial weakness on the day, moving sharply lower along with the price of crude oil. Crude for December delivery plunged $2.91 to $76.10 a barrel. Reflecting the weakness in the energy sector, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index dove by 4.6 percent, the NYSE Arca Oil Index plummeted by 3.9 percent and the NYSE Arca Natural Gas Index tumbled by 2.2 percent. A decrease by the price of gold also contributed to weakness among gold stocks, resulting in a 1.9 percent slump by the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. Telecom, airline and banking stocks also saw notable weakness on the day, while some strength was visible among biotechnology and utilities stocks.

 

Crude oil futures settled sharply lower with cut of over three percent on Friday on rising concerns about the outlook for energy demand following a surge in coronavirus cases and the imposition of fresh restrictions in some European countries. The US Energy Information Administration in its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report said that crude oil prices are set to decline next year from the current levels as global inventories will start to build again with supply rising more than demand. However, the EIA's estimate for oil production in the United States for the week ending November 12 slipped 100,000 bpd to 11.4 million bpd. Oil production is still well below the 13.1 million bpd record set last year before the pandemic took hold in the United States. Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery fell $2.47 or 3.2 percent to settle at $75.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery dropped $2.49 or 3.07 percent to settle at $78.75 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Indian rupee ended weaker against the US dollar on Thursday, on increased demand for the greenback from importers and banks. Traders were worried as private report states that even though the overall outlook for corporates have improved on the back of faster than expected recovery, and the same is likely to gain further traction in H2 but the rising commodity prices and logistics cost pose headwinds to their profitability. Besides, losses in the local equity market also dampened sentiments. However, downfall remain capped as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said there are clear signs of an uptick in the economy and the industry should now start taking risks and invest in capacity creation that will help cut reliance on imports. On the global front; pound held at a one-week high against the dollar on Thursday, as expectations mount that Britain's central bank will act sooner rather than later to hike policy rates in order to combat inflation, which would in turn boost sterling. Finally, the rupee ended 74.30 (provisional), weaker by 2 paise from its previous close of 74.28 on Wednesday.

 

The FIIs as per Thursday's data were net buyer in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 10243.75 crore against gross selling of Rs 9108.54 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 767.04 crore with gross sales of Rs 703.73 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 15.59 crore against gross selling of Rs 12.85 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Friday as renewed Covid-19 concerns weighed on cyclical stocks as a brutal fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic sweeps across Europe. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday tracking weakness over Wall Street. Indian markets tumbled on Thursday amid weak global cues, extending losses to a third straight day. Selling pressure across sectors, led by IT, financial and auto shares, pulled the headline indices lower. Today, the start of new week is likely to be flat-to-positive amid mixed global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement with report that a jump in government spending in September has led Icra to upgrade its GDP growth estimate for the second quarter of FY2021-22 to 7.9 per cent. Also, the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) said the Indian economy is likely to grow by 7-7.5 per cent in the next fiscal year. Some support will come as Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj said with the net direct tax collection till October closing in on Rs 6 lakh crore and average monthly GST mop-up likely around Rs 1.15 lakh crore this fiscal, the government's tax collection kitty will surpass budget estimates this financial year. Traders may take note of report that the commerce ministry said exports of agricultural and processed food products rose by 14.7 per cent to $11.65 billion during the April-October period on the back of healthy growth in commodities including rice, and fresh fruits and vegetables. However, some cautiousness may come as RBI data showed the country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $ 763 million to $640.112 billion in the week ended November 12. Meanwhile, the government has increased goods and services tax (GST) applicable on finished products such as apparel, textiles and footwear from 5 percent to 12 percent, effective January 2022. Aviation stocks will be in focus as DGCA data showed domestic air passenger volume spiked 70.46 percent in October to 89.85 lakh over the same month of 2020. There will be some reaction in mining industry stocks as the mines ministry said the index of mineral production of mining and quarrying sector for September stood at 95.1, which was 22.3 per cent higher as compared to the year-ago month. Meanwhile, at the end of Day 2, Go Fashion (India) IPO was subscribed 6.87 times, with retail quota receiving bids up to 24.6 times. The issue will close later in the day.

 

                               Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,764.80

17,653.66

17,910.76

BSE Sensex

59,636.01

59,282.50

60,083.52

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Tata Motors

471.97

509.95

496.10

529.00

State Bank of India

224.71

503.35

495.04

508.94

ICICI Bank

206.44

761.20

755.90

767.00

ITC

202.26

237.65

234.96

241.66

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation

183.51

154.45

153.10

156.40

 

  • Infosys has entered into strategic collaboration with Bloomberg Media to create the Bloomberg Digital Economy Index. 
  • IndusInd Bank has tied up with Toyota Kirloskar Motor.   
  • HDFC Bank has launched PM Street Vendor's AtmaNirbhar Nidhi with Common Service Centres, a special micro-credit facility for street vendors. 
  • TCS has entered into a strategic partnership with Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh.
News Analysis