Thursday turned out to be yet
another lackluster day for the Dalal Street, as bears held a tight grip amid
renewed concerns about the outlook for interest rates after the US Fed signaled
on keeping interest rates at an elevated level through 2024 after one more rate
hike this year, despite the decision to hold interest rates steady this month.
After a gap down opening, markets remained under selling pressure, as the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) marginally lowered India's growth forecast to 6.3 per
cent for the current financial year from its earlier projection of 6.4 per cent
on account of slowing exports and the likely impact of erratic rainfall on
agriculture output. Foreign fund outflows also dented investors' sentiments.
The provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign
institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 3,110.69 crore on September
20. Domestic sentiments were downbeat, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
recently released data on household financial savings which created a stir in
the markets. The data showed that household financial savings were at 5.1
percent of GDP, almost a 40-year low.
Weak trade continued in the markets till the end of the trading session,
as investors got cautious after the All-India Consumer Price Index Number for
Agricultural Labourers and Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) for the month of
August, 2023 increased by 9 points and 8 points respectively to stand at 1224
and 1234 points respectively. Adding more worries, another private report
stated that with crude oil hovering near $94 a barrel, India, the world's third
biggest importer, is confronted with the return of a long-feared spectre: the
twin deficit challenge. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 570.60 points or 0.85% to
66,230.24 and the CNX Nifty down by 159.05 points or 0.80% to 19,742.35.
The US markets magnified previous
session's losses and ended deeply in red on Thursday. Concerns about the
outlook for interest rates continued to weigh on markets following the Federal
Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. While the Fed left
interest rates unchanged as widely expected, the central bank forecast another
rate hike before the end of the year as well as keeping rates at elevated
levels for longer than previously anticipated. The worries about interest rates
contributed to a surge by treasury yields, with the yield on the benchmark
ten-year note jumping to its highest level in almost sixteen years. Adding to
the concerns about interest rates, the Labor Department released a report
showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to a
seven-month low in the week ended September 16th. The report said initial
jobless claims dipped to 201,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's
revised level of 221,000. Street had expected jobless claims to inch up to
225,000 from the 220,000 originally reported for the previous week. On the
sectoral front, Interest rate-sensitive commercial real estate stocks saw
substantial weakness on the day, resulting in a 3.5 percent nosedive by the Dow
Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. The index plunged to its lowest closing level in
almost six months. Considerable weakness was also visible among housing stocks,
with the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index tumbling by 2.7 percent to a
three-month closing low. The weakness in the housing sector came after the
National Association of Realtors released a report unexpectedly showing a
continued decrease in existing home sales.
Crude oil futures ended slightly
lower on Thursday on concerns higher interest rates and economic slowdown could
hurt energy demand. However, losses remained capped amid concerns about tight
supplies after Russia imposed a ban on fuel exports. The Russian government's
announcement that it will restrict exports of gasoline and diesel, aiming to
stabilize prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for November delivery fell $0.03
to settle at $89.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude
for November delivery declined $0.23 or 0.24 percent to settle at $93.30 a
barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.
Indian rupee appreciated against
the dollar on Thursday as crude oil price receded from its elevated level.
Traders got support as NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani expressed optimism over
economic condition of India and said that the country's economy will grow at
around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal (FY24). He also asserted that the
gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. On the global
front, the pound extended losses on Thursday after the Bank of England held
interest rates steady at 5.25% as inflation slowed more than expected in
August. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.06 (Provisional), stronger by 5 paise
from its previous close of 83.11 on Wednesday.
The FIIs as per Thursday's data
were net sellers in both equity and debt segments. In equity segment, the gross
buying was of Rs 15777.46 crore against gross selling of Rs 18853.34 crore,
while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 378.38 crore with gross
sales of Rs 1518.69 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was
of Rs 21.72 crore against gross selling of Rs 33.68 crore.
The US markets ended lower on
Thursday as investors reacted to a signal from the Federal Reserve that it
intended to keep interest rates higher for longer. Asian markets are trading
mixed on Friday ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy announcement. Indian
markets ended lower on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's tighter policy
through 2024 spooked investors. Today, domestic indices are likely to get yet
another negative start tracking mixed cues from global markets. Besides,
escalating diplomatic tensions between India and Canada likely to dampen
sentiments. India temporarily suspended visa operations with Canada for an
indefinite period due to alleged security threats against diplomatic staff,
amidst a diplomatic crisis that arose following the latter's allegation that
India is responsible for the killing of a Sikh activist. Persistent selling by
FIIs likely to impact domestic markets. Provisional data from the National
Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign institutional investors (FII) sold
shares worth Rs 3,007.36 crore on September 21. However, some support may come
later in the day as Reserve Bank of India data showed that getting a boost from
the festive period, bank credit expanded by 15.07 per cent year-on-year as of
September 8, 2023. Traders may take note of report that the Securities and
Exchange Board of India (Sebi) relaxed the framework mandating large corporates
(LCs) to access the corporate bond market for debt-raising on Thursday.
Meanwhile, as a measure to prevent erroneous order placement, the Exchange has
notified that Stop Loss orders with Market condition (SL-M) in Equity segment,
Equity Derivatives segment, Currency Derivatives segment and Commodity Derivatives
segment shall be discontinued with effect from October 9, 2023. Banking stocks
will be in focus as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Michael Patra
said India's bank credit remains resilient and is showing no signs of
systematic risk. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks amid
a private report that India's soybean production is expected to drop as patchy
monsoon rains in August stunted the crop in some key growing areas. Sugar
industry stocks will be in limelight amid a private report that India is
unlikely to export sugar in 2023-24 season as output will be less than a year
earlier. Moreover, Samhi Hotels and Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services will debut on
the bourses today. The issue price for Samhi Hotelsis fixed at Rs 126, while
that of Zaggle has been fixed at Rs 164.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
19,742.35
|
19,685.29
|
19,824.09
|
BSE
Sensex
|
66,230.24
|
66,036.41
|
66,516.37
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
HDFC Bank
|
364.21
|
1554.50
|
1538.05
|
1569.95
|
Tata Steel
|
298.26
|
127.90
|
126.99
|
129.04
|
State Bank of India
|
234.53
|
587.90
|
579.50
|
601.45
|
Power Grid
|
203.33
|
202.15
|
199.85
|
205.00
|
ICICI Bank
|
197.43
|
959.40
|
950.40
|
975.45
|
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