Indian equity benchmarks
continued their downward slide on Wednesday and ended with losses of over a
percent, in tandem with weak trends in global markets ahead of the US Federal
Reserve's interest rate decision. Weak trend in index majors HDFC Bank, JSW
Steel and Reliance Industries also added to the overall bearish trend. Markets
made a gap-down opening and stayed in red for whole day as traders were
concerned after the equity foreign direct investment (FDI) into India declined
sharply to $13.9 billion in April-July 2023 from $22.04 billion a year ago,
showing the effect of the slowdown in global economic activity. Some
cautiousness also crept in with exchange data showing that foreign
Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 1,236.51 crore on
Monday. Markets extended fall in late afternoon deals, as traders were cautious
after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monthly bulletin said that a shift
by state governments to the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) will be fiscally
unsustainable and a major step backwards. Traders also took a note of the
Global Trade Research Initiative's (GTRI) report stating that banking issues
like reluctance to process forex received through alternate channels and high
processing fees are hindering the growth of e-commerce exports from India, and
there is a need to bring mindset change to unlock the sector's potential.
Market participants paid no heed towards the Finance Ministry's statement that
the net direct tax collection increased 23.51 per cent to over Rs 8.65 lakh
crore till mid-September on higher advance tax mop-up from corporates. Finally,
the BSE Sensex fell 796.00 points or 1.18% to 66,800.84 and the CNX Nifty down
by 231.90 points or 1.15% to 19,901.40.
The US markets ended lower on
Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced its widely expected decision to
leave interest rates unchanged but raised its forecast for rates at the end of
next year. The Fed said it decided to maintain the target range for the federal
funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50 percent after raising rates by 25 basis points in
July. However, the central bank's latest projections suggest Fed officials
expect one more rate hike this year, forecasting a median rate of 5.6 percent
by the end of 2023. While the forecast for the end of the year was unchanged
from June, the latest projections also indicate officials expect rates to
remain higher for longer than previously anticipated. The forecast for rates at
the end of 2024 was raised to 5.1 percent from 4.6 percent in June, while the
outlook for rates at the end of 2025 was increased to 3.9 percent from 3.4
percent. Expectations for rates to remain higher for longer may reflect an
improved assessment of the economy, with the Fed's statement saying economic
activity has been expanding at a solid pace compared to the moderate pace
described in July. On sectoral front, Semiconductor stocks showed a significant
move to the downside, dragging the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down by 1.7
percent to its lowest closing level in almost four months. Software and
networking stocks also saw considerable weakness on the day, contributing to
the steep drop by the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Weakness also emerged among energy
stocks, while gold stocks saw notable strength amid an increase by the price of
the precious metal.
Crude oil futures ended lower on
Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged, but
projected a rate increase by the end of the year and keeping interest rates at
an elevated level through 2024. Oil prices fell despite data showing a drop in
crude inventories in the U.S. in the week ended September 15. Data released by
the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories in
the U.S. dropped by 2.136 million barrels last week versus forecasts for an
increase of 0.25 million barrels. The data said gasoline stockpiles declined by
0.831 million barrels last week versus forecasts for a 1.1 million barrel rise,
while distillate stockpiles dropped by 2.867 million barrels. Benchmark crude
oil futures for October delivery fell $0.92 or 1.00 percent to settle at $90.28
a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for November delivery
declined $0.81 or 0.86 percent to settle at $ 93.53 a barrel on London's
Intercontinental Exchange.
Indian rupee ended higher against
the US dollar on Wednesday aided by losses in global crude prices and a weak
dollar ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Besides, possible
intervention by the central bank to check volatility in currency markets also
helped the domestic unit. Traders took support with Finance Ministry's
statement that net direct tax collection grew 23.51 per cent to over Rs 8.65
lakh crore till mid-September 2023, on higher advance tax mop-up from
corporates. On the global front, the ringgit ended higher against the US dollar
on Wednesday ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate
decision due later. Finally, the rupee ended at 83.11 (Provisional), stronger
by 21 paise from its previous close of 83.32 on Monday.
The FIIs as per Wednesday's data
were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7973.46 crore against gross
selling of Rs 8719.04 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was
of Rs 1409.02 crore with gross sales of Rs 1204.03 crore. Besides, in the
hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 41.64 crore against gross selling of
Rs 53.54 crore.
The US markets ended lower on
Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve held key interest rates unchanged. Asian
markets are trading in red on Thursday following overnight losses on Wall
Street. Indian markets ended lower for the second consecutive session on
Wednesday amid selling in heavyweights and across the sectors, barring power
stocks. Today, markets likely to start session in red terrain amid global
sell-off after the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but
stiffened its hawkish stance, with a further rate increase projected by the end
of the year and monetary policy kept significantly tighter through 2024 than
previously expected. Foreign fund outflows likely to dent domestic sentiments.
Provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed that foreign
institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 3,110.69 crore on September
20. There will be some cautiousness as the latest payroll data from the
Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) indicates a slight dip in the
creation of new formal jobs in July, signalling stagnation in the labour
market. New monthly subscribers to the employees' provident fund (EPF) declined
by 1.2 per cent to 1.02 million in July, compared to 1.03 million in June.
However, some support may come later in the day as India Ratings and Research
upwardly revised its FY24 real GDP growth estimate to 6.2 per cent from the 5.9
per cent expected earlier. The domestic ratings agency attributed its revision
to a variety of factors, including the government's capital expenditure,
deleveraged balance sheets of India Inc and banks, subdued global commodity
prices and the prospect of private capital expenditure picking up. Sugar stocks
will be in focus as the India Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said there will be
no scarcity in supply of sugar in the next season (October-September), thanks
to an adequate buffer and an increase in production prospects in Uttar Pradesh,
Maharashtra and Karnataka. There will be some reaction in stocks related to
space sector as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the Indian Space
Research Organisation (ISRO) through the success of Chandrayaan 3 has achieved
innovation along with sustainability and the space sector is backed by reforms
which should attract more funds as the government aims to institutionalise the
private sector via its policy. Meanwhile, EMS, an infrastructure player that
provides sewerage solutions, is likely to see a strong listing on September 21.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
19,901.40
|
19,836.61
|
20,008.41
|
BSE
Sensex
|
66,800.84
|
66,587.94
|
67,153.96
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
HDFC Bank
|
577.37
|
1566.00
|
1551.26
|
1589.86
|
Tata Steel
|
436.27
|
128.50
|
127.06
|
130.86
|
Power Grid
|
333.70
|
204.80
|
200.19
|
207.69
|
Reliance Industries
|
285.41
|
2380.65
|
2347.90
|
2420.50
|
ICICI Bank
|
257.42
|
988.10
|
980.50
|
995.85
|
Tata Motors has planned to increase prices of its commercial vehicles, effective October 1, 2023, up to 3%.
Bajaj Finance has raised Rs 500 crore through allotment of 50,000 Secured Redeemable NCDs, at the face value of Rs 1 lakh each.
Tech Mahindra has inaugurated a local innovation centre in Espoo, Finland.
TCS has entered into a strategic partnership with BankID BankAxept AS, Norway's national payment and electronic identity systems.