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NSE Intra-day chart (20 April 2022)
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Market Commentary 21 April 2022
Benchmarks likely to get positive start tracking Asian peers

 

Indian equity benchmarks snapped a five-day losing run and ended higher by over a percent on Wednesday with the help of strong buying support in Auto, Energy and Oil & Gas stocks. A largely positive trend in global equities also helped the benchmarks get back on their feet. Markets made positive start and stayed in green for whole day, as traders took encouragement as describing the Indian economy's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as distinct and pronounced, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman exuded confidence about India posting robust economic growth this decade. Separately, she said the US-India relationship is at its best and will strengthen the global order in these challenging times. Some solace came as private report stated that hiring activity witnessed a 6 per cent year-on-year growth in March this year, supported by a rebound in economic activities and led by sectors such as banking and telecom. Sentiments remained positive in late afternoon deals, as India is planning to set up digital only banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) to ensure that business continuity in the lending system is not affected even in exceptional times. Besides, the government has set the foodgrain production target at a record level of 328 million tonnes for the 2022-23 crop year on the back of good monsoon rains. The target is 3.8 per cent higher compared to previous year's output. Traders overlooked the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) report in which it has slashed its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of India to 8.2 per cent for fiscal year 2022-23 (FY23) from 9 per cent forecasted earlier. It said that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Meanwhile, the government said 1.03 lakh new manufacturing and service units were set up under its flagship scheme PMEGP along with creation of over 8.25 lakh jobs in the last financial year. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 574.35 points or 1.02% to 57,037.50 and the CNX Nifty was up by 177.90 points or 1.05% to 17,136.55.

 

The US markets ended mostly in red on Wednesday. A steep drop by shares of Netflix weighed on the Nasdaq, with the streaming giant plummeting by 35.1 percent to its lowest closing level in four years. The sell-off by Netflix came after the company reported the loss of 200,000 subscribers during the first quarter, making the first decrease in subscribers in over a decade. Besides, there was cautiousness in the markets after the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book, which said US economic activity has expanded at a moderate pace since mid-February. The Fed noted consumer spending accelerated among retail and non-financial service firms, as Covid-19 cases tapered across the country. Manufacturing activity was also described as solid overall, although the Fed said labor market tightness and elevated input costs continued to pose challenges on firms' abilities to meet demand. The elevated input costs came as inflationary pressures remained strong, with firms continuing to swiftly pass rising costs on to customers. While firms were generally allowed to pass through higher input cost to customers due to strong demand, the Fed noted some districts saw negative sales impacts from rising prices. On the economic data front, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released a report showing existing home sales saw further downside in the month of March. NAR said existing home sales slumped by 2.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.77 million in March after plunging by 8.6 percent to a downwardly revised rate of 5.93 million in February. Street had expected existing home sales to tumble by 3.7 percent to a rate of 5.80 million from the 6.02 million originally reported for the previous month.

 

Crude oil futures ended marginally higher on Wednesday after data showed a drop in US crude inventories in the week ended April 15. Data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories in the US dropped by 8 million barrels last week versus expectations for an increase of 2.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 761,000 barrels last week to 232.4 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles dropped by 2.7 million barrels to 108.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 2008. Besides, Concerns about supplies from Russia and the disruptions in Libya also contributed to the uptick in oil prices. Benchmark crude oil futures for June delivery gained $0.14 or 0.1 percent to settle at $102.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude for June delivery fell $0.37 or 0.33 percent to settle at $106.88 (Provisional) a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange.

 

Erasing previous session drubbing, Indian rupee ended fairly higher against US dollar amid positive domestic equities and some moderation in crude oil prices. Traders got encouragement as describing the Indian economy's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as distinct and pronounced, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman exuded confidence about India posting robust economic growth this decade. Separately, she said the US-India relationship is at its best and will strengthen the global order in these challenging times. Additional support came as private report stated that hiring activity witnessed a 6 per cent year-on-year growth in March this year, supported by a rebound in economic activities and led by sectors such as banking and telecom. On the global front, yen briefly fell to a fresh two-decade low on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan stepped into the market again to defend its ultra-low interest-rate policy, drawing a sharp contrast with the United States where bond yields hit new highs. Finally, the rupee ended at 76.26 (Provisional), stronger by 24 paise from its previous close of 76.50 on Tuesday.

 

The FIIs as per Wednesday's data were net sellers in both equity and debt segment. In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9379.16 crore against gross selling of Rs 14469.03 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 135.67 crore against gross selling of Rs 648.54 crore. Besides, in the hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8.90 crore against gross selling of Rs 13.76 crore.

 

The US markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday as bleak Netflix earnings dragged the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday due to an overnight tumble in longer dated U.S. treasury yields. Indian markets made a comeback on Wednesday, after a losing streak that stretched to five consecutive trading sessions, on account of strength in IT stocks. Today, the start of session is likely to be positive tracking gains in Asian peers. Some support will come as Managing Director of the International Monetary FundKristalina Georgieva said a high growth rate for India, as projected in the latest World Economic Outlook, is not only healthy for the country but also positive news for the world. Some optimism may come with Union minister Nitin Gadkari's statement that the PM Gati Shakti National Master Plan (NMP), aimed at improving multi-modal connectivity and last-mile connectivity across the country, is important for achieving the prime minister's dream of making India a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25. Besides, NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said that India should aspire to become a high-income country by 2047 and this would need sustained economic growth year after year. However, there may be some cautiousness as retail inflation for farm and rural labourers increased to 6.09 per cent and 6.33 per cent in March 2022, respectively, mainly due to higher prices of certain food items and clothing. Traders may be concerned as dismissing the contention that currency devaluation encourages exports, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said weakening of the rupee would not be in the nation's interest in the long run. There will be some buzz in hotel industry stocks as rating agency Icra said that hospital industry revenue growth is likely to moderate in FY23 due to the large base in the previous fiscal, although income and profit margins are expected to remain healthy ahead. Oil & gas industry stocks will be in focus with report that India's crude oil production fell 2.67 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 31, as state-owned ONGC produced less than the target, but natural gas output rose helped by KG production by Reliance-BP. There will be some reaction in aviation industry stocks with the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) report showing that domestic airlines carried 24 million passengers during January-March 2022 against 23 million during the same period last year, growing at 6.06 per cent YoY. Lower base effect as well as easing Covid travel restrictions accelerated India's domestic air passenger traffic growth. Investors awaited more of earnings reports from India Inc for cues.

 

Support and Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)

 

Index

Previous close

Support

Resistance

NSE Nifty

17,136.55

17,014.70

17,222.65

BSE Sensex

57,037.50

56,633.71

57,328.89

 

Nifty Top volumes

 

Stock

 

Volume

Previous close (Rs)

Support  (Rs)

Resistance (Rs)

(in Lacs)

Coal India

383.56

199.00

195.55

204.00

HDFC Bank

246.62

1,356.00

1,340.94

1,365.49

ITC

245.10

259.80

256.41

264.31

NTPC

200.47

160.70

158.74

162.94

Tata Motors

196.39

440.90

432.20

445.65

 

  • HDFC has divested 1 per cent stake in real estate company Ansal Housing & Construction through an open market transaction. 
  • Infosys' US-headquartered subsidiary -- Infosys Public Services has introduced Infosys LaborForce, a fully integrated, cloud-native PaaS UI system. 
  • Bharti Airtel has added 15,91,821 customers in February, 2022. 
  • Reliance Industries' Reliance Brands has signed a definitive agreement to invest in India's foremost Couturiers Abu Jani Sandeep Khosla for a 51% majority stake.
News Analysis